Carver-Hawkeye Arena - Iowa City, IA
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Iowa -3, Total: 132

Iowa hosts Michigan State in a Big Ten matchup with huge conference implications on Thursday night.

The Spartans (9-6 ATS) have had some struggles early in the season, but they started off the new year on the right foot with a 70-50 blowout of Indiana on Monday. The Spartans have been excellent on the road the past two seasons at 10-2 ATS in non-home games, while also going 16-7 ATS (70%) versus conference opponents in that timeframe. The Hawkeyes (5-6 ATS) are off to a fast start in the Big Ten, winning its first two conference games by six points as a 7-point underdog at Ohio State and then beating 9.5-point underdog Nebraska 70-59 on Monday. Iowa is a physical team that is looking to play rough, and is very good when attacking the basket and drawing fouls. In the past three seasons, the team is 14-4 ATS when attempting 4-to-9 more free throws than its opponent. While Michigan State has dominated this series recently with eight straight victories (6-2 ATS), the matchup in Iowa City last March was a thriller, with the Spartans prevailing 71-69 in overtime. PG Travis Trice, a reserve on the team last season, averaged 13.5 PPG in the two meetings. There are no significant injuries for either school in this contest.

Which team will pick up the key conference victory on Thursday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have caught fire since Dec. 23, combining for a 60% ATS mark (38-25) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 10-3 ATS during this timeframe to improve to 65% ATS (28-15) for the season. StatFox Brian is 7-2 ATS in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to improve to 56% ATS (24-19) this season, while StatFox Scott is on a 9-4 ATS Best Bets run since Dec. 23.

The Spartans have gotten things going on the offensive end of the court, which will help the team in Big Ten play. Entering Thursday’s game, Michigan State ranks 5th in the nation in assists (18.3 APG), 27th in rebounding (40.0 RPG), 30th in shooting (47.9% FG) and 49th in scoring (74.1 PPG). This is also a hard-nosed defensive team that allows only 60.1 PPG (49th in NCAA) on 36.8% FG (27.3% threes). Michigan State under Tom Izzo is always one of the best rebounding teams in college basketball, and this season is no different with a +8.3 RPG margin. SF Branden Dawson (10.9 PPG. 9.1 RPG, 1.4 SPG) is one of the most complete players in college basketball, and he can influence a game on both ends of the court. He has missed some time early in the season due to injury, but he is healthy now and capable of leading this team. But Dawson must improve his foul shooting, as he is an atrocious 39% (11-of-28) from the line this season. The top scorer on the Spartans is SG Denzel Valentine (13.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG and 4.3 APG), who has 15+ points in three of the past four games. He can really shoot the ball from deep (46% threes), and has grabbed at least six rebounds in each of the past five games (6.6 RPG). With PG Travis Trice (13.3 PPG, 6.0 APG, 3.3 RPG) and SG Bryn Forbes (10.0 PPG, 45% threes), the Spartans are a team that is capable of catching fire from the long distance at any moment.

The Hawkeyes beat North Carolina in their non-conference schedule and are off to a great start in Big Ten play with two straight wins, giving them a golden opportunity to contend for the conference crown. Iowa enters this game ranked 32nd in the nation in total rebounds (39.7 RPG) and 43rd in passing (15.4 APG), but it has really struggled offensively, ranking 117th in the nation in scoring (70.7 PPG) and 281st in shooting (40.9% FG). However, the team is outstanding defensively in holding opponents to 59.3 PPG (39th in NCAA) on 37.8% FG and 29.1% threes. PF Aaron White (16.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 52% FG) is the leading scorer on the team, and is the type of guy that can take over a game. He is not the most athletic player, but he does a nice job of playing to his strengths. White averaged only 10.0 PPG and 4.5 RPG in two meetings with MSU last season. PF Jarrod Uthoff (11.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 40% from threes) is the perfect complement to White in the frontcourt. Both of these forwards can make plays from the outside, but Uthoff is the shooter, making 40% of his three-point attempts. They both have the ability to put the ball on the floor, and pull the opposing post players from the paint. The player feeding the post most often is PG Mike Gesell (6.7 PPG, 3.9 APG), who has 31 assists and just 13 turnovers (2.4 Ast/TO ratio) in his past seven games. Iowa's defense and rebounding (+4.2 RPG) should make for a physical and low-scoring game.