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No. 4 Duke hosts heavy underdog Miami on Tuesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/13/2015  at  4:55:00 AM
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MIAMI HURRICANES (11-4)

at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (14-1)

Cameron Indoor Stadium - Durham, NC
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Duke -15

No. 4 Duke looks to shake off its first loss of the season when it hosts Miami on Tuesday night.

The Hurricanes opened the season with eight straight wins (5-2 ATS), but have lost four of the past seven contests SU, where they are 1-5 ATS. But they are 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in non-home games this season and have done a great job of ball protection in the past three contests with only 7.3 turnovers per game, and were able to outlast 9-point underdog Boston College 60-56 on Saturday with a season-low-tying five turnovers. The Blue Devils were embarrassed in an 87-75 loss at 9-point underdog NC State on Sunday, but now they return home where they have won 41 straight home games, which is the longest streak in the nation. The school has also not suffered back-to-back conference losses since 2009. After starting the season 5-0 ATS, Duke is a miserable 3-7 ATS in its past 10 contests. Miami has played very well in Durham with four straight ATS wins, including a 78-74 SU victory in 2012. Two of these past four games have gone into overtime. Since the Hurricanes joined the ACC, the Blue Devils are 13-3 SU in this series, but only 7-8-1 ATS. This includes a home record of 6-1 SU (3-4 ATS). In the one meeting last season in Miami, Duke rolled to 67-46 win in a game the 'Canes made only 35% FG and 2-of-10 threes. Miami has loved the road underdog role in the past three seasons, going 12-2 ATS, but the Blue Devils are 13-3 ATS after a double-digit upset loss since 1997. Neither school has any significant injuries in this matchup.

Can Duke bounce back from Sunday's loss with a lopsided win over the Hurricanes? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have caught fire since Dec. 23, combining for a 59% ATS mark (44-31) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 10-5 ATS during this timeframe to improve to 62% ATS (28-17) for the season. StatFox Brian is 9-2 ATS in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to improve to 58% ATS (26-19) this season, while StatFox Scott is on an 11-4 ATS Best Bets run since Dec. 23.

Miami's offense is solid, scoring 69.8 PPG (134th in nation) on 44.7% FG and 36.3% threes with 14.1 APG and only 10.4 turnovers per game (12th in NCAA). The defense is also strong, limiting opponents to 61.4 PPG (65th in nation) on 40.5% FG and 33.1% threes, but holds just a slim +0.4 RPG margin. The team is led by a pair of transfer guards in PG Angel Rodriguez (14.6 PPG, 4.3 APG, 3.1 RPG, 2.1 SPG) from Kansas State and SG Sheldon McClellan (15.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG) from Texas, who are the only double-digit scorers for the 'Canes. Rodriguez has scored at least 15 points in four straight games, averaging 19.0 PPG during this scoring binge. But he has made only 13-of-36 shots (36%) and 2-of-13 threes in the past two games. McClellan has improved his shooting greatly from his last college season in 2012-13 with Texas when he made only 38% FG and 27% threes. This season he is connecting on 54% FG and 40% threes, and has 11+ points in 12 straight contests where he has made at least 40% FG in all dozen contests. Seven-foot C Tonye Jekiri (7.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 1.7 BPG) will be tasked with guarding superstar freshman Jahlil Okafor, and his confidence is sky-high after producing 13 points and 15 rebounds on Saturday versus Boston College. He has grabbed 45 rebounds and made 61% FG (17-of-28) over his past four contests, and Jekiri will need to alter shots like NC State did on Sunday when it blocked 10 Duke shots. Jekiri had eight points, nine rebounds and only one block in last season's home loss to the Blue Devils.

Duke's offense has been outstanding this season with 83.8 PPG (8th in nation) on 50.7% FG (5th in NCAA). The club is very unselfish with 16.4 APG (18th in nation), and shoots a strong 37.8% from three-point range. This is also a quality rebounding team (+7.9 RPG margin) that is strong defensively too, allowing only 62.7 PPG (107th in NCAA) on 42.2% FG, and 28.9% threes. But the defense was lit up for 87 points (50 in second half) on 55% FG and 63% threes (10-of-16) by NC State on Sunday. The Blue Devils have four players averaging in double-figures, led by freshman C Jahlil Okafor (19.2 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG) who shoots an NCAA-best 68% from the floor, but only 57% from the foul line. He has scored at least 10 points in all 15 games this season, and tallied his fourth double-double of the season (second straight) on Sunday with 23 points and 12 boards. Senior SG Quinn Cook (14.6 PPG, 3.0 APG, 1.3 SPG) shoots 39% from three-point land, and has missed only one free throw all season (32-of-33, 97%). Cook's scoring has been very consistent in his final collegiate year with double-figure points in 14 of 15 contests. Freshman SF Justise Winslow (12.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.2 APG) knocks down 47% of his threes, and has averaged 14.8 PPG during four straight double-digit scoring games. But he struggled on Sunday with 10 points on 3-of-13 FG (1-of-6 threes) before fouling out. Freshman PG Tyus Jones (9.6 PPG, 5.1 APG, 3.5 RPG, 1.6 SPG) also had a dreadful offensive performance against the Wolfpack with four points on 1-of-6 FG. But while Jones' scoring has gone south in the past four games (5.0 PPG on 27% FG), he has 24 assists and only eight turnovers in his past five contests, and has an Ast/TO ratio of 3.3 for the season (77 Ast, 23 TO).


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