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No. 1 Kentucky favored big over Missouri Tuesday
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Published: 1/13/2015  at  4:24:00 AM
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MISSOURI TIGERS (7-8)

at KENTUCKY WILDCATS (15-0)

Rupp Arena – Lexington, KY
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Kentucky -23.5, Total: 126

No. 1 Kentucky looks to remain undefeated on Tuesday night as big home favorites against Missouri.

The Wildcats (8-7 ATS) had their second consecutive very difficult game on Saturday, as they had to go to double overtime before defeating 14.5-point underdog Texas A&M, 70-64, which came just four days after an 89-86 home OT win over 23-point underdog Ole Miss. For the Tigers (5-8 ATS), the program is under first-year head coach Kim Anderson, and he is looking for his first big win at the helm. Missouri has struggled against the country's No. 1 ranked team, as the program has not knocked off the top-ranked team since defeating Kansas in 1997. Kentucky has won both meetings since Missouri joined the SEC, but both games were very competitive, as the point differential for the two games was only 12 points combined. In the lone meeting last season, the Tigers fell 84-79 at home. John Calipari’s team has been nearly unbeatable at home against unranked teams, winning 31 of its past 32 games SU. The school is also 20-10 ATS after a win by six points or less since he took over the program. However, the Wildcats are 1-10 ATS in the past three seasons when the total is 129.5 or less. The only injury for either school is Tigers SG Montaque Gill-Caesar (back), who is doubtful for Tuesday's matchup.

Can Kentucky cover the monster spread in this matchup? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have caught fire since Dec. 23, combining for a 59% ATS mark (44-31) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 10-5 ATS during this timeframe to improve to 62% ATS (28-17) for the season. StatFox Brian is 9-2 ATS in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to improve to 58% ATS (26-19) this season, while StatFox Scott is on an 11-4 ATS Best Bets run since Dec. 23.

The Tigers have struggles in many facets this season, but the main deficiencies are on the offensive end. Entering Tuesday, they rank 204th in the nation in scoring (66.9 PPG), 205th in rebounding (34.3 RPG), 222nd in shooting (42.8% FG) and 295th in passing (10.7 APG). Defensively, the team allows 68.4 PPG (238th in nation) on just 41.8% FG and 33.7% threes. Missouri relies heavily on sophomore PF Johnathan Williams III (13.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 48% FG), who is developing into one of the better post players in the SEC. At 6-foot-9, 225 pounds, he has the chance to become a star in this conference. Freshman SG Montaque Gill-Caesar (11.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 82% FT) is another young player that Missouri is throwing into the fire early in his career, and he is starting to play much better basketball. With his back injury likely to keep him sidelined for Tuesday's game, Missouri will rely on more scoring from PG Wes Clark (9.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG and 2.9 APG) and SF Keith Shamburger (9.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 3.1 APG, 39% threes). As a team, Missouri averages three more turnovers per game (13.7) than assists per game (10.7), something that has to change if the Tigers are going to win a significant amount of games in the SEC.

The Wildcats are undefeated on the season, and one of the biggest reasons is because of their defense. Kentucky leads the nation in blocks (8.3 BPG) and shooting defense (31.3% FG), while ranking second in scoring defense (51.5 PPG) and fifth in total rebounds (42.1 RPG). With so much size, length and athleticism, teams can’t just give the ball to the post and let their players go to work. Also, the Kentucky frontcourt players run extremely well, which limits team’s transition opportunities. However, it is not just defense, as the Wildcats have been strong in nearly every offensive category as well. Kentucky ranks 17th in the nation in assists (16.5 APG), 33rd in scoring (75.9 PPG) and 84th in shooting (45.4% FG). SG Aaron Harrison (11.5 PPG) leads the team in scoring, but is shooting 36% FG and 28% threes. In the double-overtime marathon on Saturday, he netted just 12 points on 4-of-20 FG (2-of-13 threes), but he should be able to bounce back considering he netted 21 points (6-of-10 FG, 8-of-8 FT) at Missouri last season. PG Andrew Harrison (7.7 PPG, 4.3 APG) has really struggled in his past five games, making only 9-of-35 FG (26%) while turning the ball over 15 times. Despite his poor play, head coach John Calipari has said that he will remain the starter. While Harrison has faltered, SG Devin Booker (10.7 PPG, 30-of-60 threes) and PG Tyler Ulis (5.3 PPG, 3.9 APG, 45% threes) have really stepped up and taken their game to the next level. C Willie Cauley-Stein (9.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.9 BPG) is the leader on the defensive end of the court. He does a great job of contesting shots, and then leaking out in transition. In the past two games, Cauley-Stein has 18 rebounds and seven blocked shots.


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