AFC Championship
Kickoff: Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET
Line: New England -6.5, Total: 53.5

The Patriots and Colts will battle for a spot in Super Bowl when the teams play for the AFC Championship in Foxboro, MA on Sunday.

Indianapolis entered Denver last Sunday as a 9.5-point road underdog and came away with an improbable 24-13 victory, giving the club seven wins in its past eight tries (5-2-1 ATS), including three in a row (SU and ATS). Although the Colts are thought of as an explosive offense, their games have finished Under the total in six straight contests. Meanwhile, New England became the first playoff team in NFL history to erase two 14-point deficits in the same game in a thrilling 35-31 comeback win over the 7-point underdog Ravens last Saturday. The Patriots are now 11-3 SU (8-5 ATS) in their past 14 contests, which includes a meaningless Week 17 loss to Buffalo when they rested many starters. The Patriots have dominated this series in recent years, winning each of the past five meetings (3-2 ATS) by an average score of 41 to 24. This includes a meeting in Week 11 in Indianapolis when New England rolled to a 42-20 blowout as a 3-point underdog. In that game, the Patriots outrushed the Colts 244 to 19 with Jonas Gray rumbling for 201 yards and four touchdowns. Indianapolis hasn't won a game in Foxboro since Nov. 5, 2006. The last six games played between these teams (four in Gillette Stadium) have finished Over the total. The Colts are 6-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games in the past two seasons and 23-7 ATS after two straight double-digit wins since 1992. The Patriots, however, are 9-1 ATS at home where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the past three seasons, and 28-12 ATS when facing great passing teams (260+ YPG). While Indianapolis has no new injuries since playing OG Hugh Thornton (shoulder) and OT Gosder Cherilus (groin) on IR, New England could be without both CB Brandon Browner (knee) and RB Jonas Gray (ankle), who are questionable for Sunday.

Can the Colts pull off the big upset on Sunday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 playoffs. With a combined 11-8 record (58%) in NFL Best Bets this postseason, the four experts now own a collective 28-14-2 Best Bets record (67%) in the past two NFL playoff seasons, going 73% (16-6) in Totals and 60% ATS (12-8-2) in Best Bet picks. StatFox Gary is a perfect 2-0 ATS on his Best Bets picks during this postseason, and is now a stellar 69% ATS (24-11-1) in ATS Best Bets since Week 9.

The Colts shocked the world with a 24-13 victory over the Broncos in Denver on Sunday, and the win was especially sweet for QB Andrew Luck (4,761 pass yards, 40 TD, 16 INT). Luck threw for 265 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions and was able to beat Peyton Manning, who was legendary as the Colts’ quarterback before Luck was drafted in 2012. He’ll now need to focus on limiting his mistakes, as he’ll be up against a very good Patriots secondary in this game. In three career meetings in this series, Luck has thrown eight interceptions and only six touchdowns. RB Dan Herron (351 rush yards, 1 TD) came up huge for the Colts against Denver and will need to do the same against New England. Herron rushed for 63 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries against the Broncos, and the Patriots rushing defense is definitely a weakness of theirs, allowing 118.7 rushing YPG in the past three contests. Herron was also a factor in the passing game last Sunday, catching eight passes for 32 yards. Top WR T.Y. Hilton (82 rec, 1,345 yards, 7 TD) caught four passes for 72 yards against Denver, and he’ll need to use his quickness to break away from Darrelle Revis, who will likely be shadowing him in this game. Revis helped limit Hilton to three catches for 24 yards in the Week 11 loss. TE Dwayne Allen (29 rec, 395 yards, 8 TD) and WR Hakeem Nicks (38 rec, 405 yards, 4 TD) both caught touchdown passes against Denver, but it was TE Coby Fleener (51 rec, 774 yards, 8 TD) who really burned the Patriots on Nov. 16 for 144 yards on seven catches. The size of this trio gives Luck three huge targets in the red zone. Defensively, the Colts held a high-powered Broncos offense to just 288 total yards and 4-of-16 on third-down conversions last week. They’ll need to do more of the same against New England on Sunday, as the Patriots racked up 503 total yards in that 42-20 victory at Indy in Week 11.

The Patriots made NFL history by being the only team to overcome two 14-point deficits in their 35-31 victory over the Ravens last week. They’ll now get to play a team that they dominated in Week 11 on the road. QB Tom Brady (4,109 yards, 33 TD, 9 INT) was brilliant in last Saturday's victory over Baltimore with 367 passing yards, three touchdowns and just one interception. He also rushed for a touchdown. Brady will need to take care of the football against the Colts, as he threw two interceptions in their last meeting with the team. He did, however, throw for 257 yards with two touchdowns as well, improving his career numbers versus Indy (including playoff) to a 12-4 record, 66.4% completions, 7.7 YPA, 29 TD and 14 INT. TE Rob Gronkowski (82 rec, 1,124 yards, 12 TD) dominated the Ravens with seven catches for 108 yards and a touchdown. He will be heavily targeted by Tom Brady in this game as well, as Gronkowski has caught 28 passes for 431 yards and 4 TD in his five playoffs games in which he stayed injury-free. One guy who really stepped his game up against Baltimore last Saturday was No. 3 WR Danny Amendola (27 rec, 200 yards, 1 TD). Amendola caught five passes for 81 yards and two touchdowns, including one 51-yard touchdown pass from WR Julian Edelman (92 rec, 972 yards, 4 TD). In addition to the touchdown pass on the trick play, Edelman also caught eight passes for 74 yards. The Patriots rushing game was pretty much non-existent against Baltimore, as they combined to rush for just 14 yards on 13 carries. Somebody will need to step it up against the Colts, as the Patriots rushed for 246 yards and four touchdowns in their last meeting against Indianapolis. The last time these teams met in the playoffs last January, New England rushed for 234 yards, led by LeGarrette Blount's 166 yards and four touchdowns.