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Suns go for season sweep of Lakers on Monday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/19/2015  at  6:43:00 AM
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LOS ANGELES LAKERS (12-29)

at PHOENIX SUNS (24-18)

Tip-off: Monday, 10:05 p.m. ET
Line: Phoenix -10, Total: 214

The red-hot Suns look for a season series sweep of the miserable Lakers when the teams meet in the desert on Monday night.

Los Angeles continues to have a miserable season, and enters Monday in the midst of a four-game losing skid (0-3-1 ATS), with the first three of those defeats coming at home. Now it must continue a difficult four-game road trip versus a Phoenix team that is averaging 111.4 PPG during a 12-4 SU run (11-4-1 ATS) in its past 16 contests, which includes a perfect 5-0 home record (4-1 ATS). For the season, the Suns are only 11-7 SU (10-8 ATS) at US Airways Center, while the Lakers are 6-14 SU, but 11-9 ATS, on the road. However, Phoenix has beaten L.A. seven straight times at home (6-1 ATS), and is 8-3 SU (7-3-1 ATS) overall in this series over the past three seasons. This includes wins in all three meetings this season by an average of 11.7 PPG. The Lakers fit into the betting trend of bad double-digit road underdogs (25% to 40% win pct.) going 170-111 ATS (61%) after 2+ straight ATS losses when playing a winning team, but the Suns thrive versus good three-point shooting teams (6+ made threes per game) under head coach Jeff Hornacek, going 65-30 ATS (68%) in this scenario. Although SG Kobe Bryant (fatigue) hasn't played since Thursday, it appears as if he will rest during Monday's game too. SG Ronnie Price (elbow) is also doubtful to play on Monday, while Phoenix has no significant injuries.

Can the Suns win this matchup by double-digits? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 56% ATS record (106-85-1) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, the experts have a stellar 67% ATS (43-21) record since Jan. 2, led by StatFox Scott, who is a sizzling 70% ATS (14-6) in Best Bets since Dec. 21, improving his record to 55% ATS (33-27) for the season. StatFox Brian is 63% ATS (24-14) in Best Bets since Nov. 29, and is now 57% ATS (34-26) in season Best Bets, while StatFox Gary is 69% ATS (9-4) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 1, and 57% ATS (34-26) this season. StatFox Zach is 69% ATS (9-4) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 2, while StatFox Dave is 58% ATS (7-5) since Jan. 2.

The Lakers offense has been horrible over the past eight games with only 91.0 PPG on 42.0% FG and 29.5% threes, which are numbers well below their mediocre season averages of 100.4 PPG (17th in NBA) on 43.7% FG (26th in league) and 35.1% threes (16th in NBA). Defensively, Los Angeles is atrocious, surrendering 106.5 PPG (2nd-worst in league) on 46.8% FG (3rd-worst in NBA) and 37.6% threes (4th-worst in league). While this is a great ball-handling team with only 12.2 turnovers per game (5th-best in NBA), it holds a minus-1.7 RPG margin on the glass. If SG Kobe Bryant (22.6 PPG, 5.7 APG, 5.6 RPG, 1.4 SPG) doesn't play, SF Nick Young (14.3 PPG, 38% threes) becomes the go-to scorer on the team. He pumped in 23 points in Friday's loss at Utah in that top-scorer role, getting to the foul line 13 times and making all 13 free throws. He also scored 21 points (4-of-6 threes) in his one meeting with the Suns this season, which was a big improvement from the 13.0 PPG (4-of-15 threes) he posted in four meetings last season. C Jordan Hill (12.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG) tallied his 14th double-double this season on Friday with 16 points and 11 rebounds, and has averaged nearly a double-double against Phoenix this season with 10.0 PPG and 9.0 RPG, but has made only 9-of-28 FG (32%). If Hill struggles with his shot, L.A. will need PF Carlos Boozer (12.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG) to step up his game. Boozer has been quiet versus Phoenix this season with 8.3 PPG and 5.3 RPG in the three matchups, and has also been a non-factor offensively in his past three contests with 6.7 PPG on 43% shooting. PG Jeremy Lin (10.6 PPG, 4.4 APG, 1.0 SPG) scored only six points with three assists in his 30 minutes on Friday, but has played very well offensively in this season series with 14.3 PPG on 58% FG, but has only six assists and six turnovers in the three defeats.

The Suns offense has been explosive all season with 107.0 PPG (3rd in NBA) on 46.6% FG (7th in league) and 36.1% threes (10th in NBA), but the fast-paced offense leads to 14.7 turnovers per game (6th-most in league). The up-tempo style allows opponents to score in bunches too, as Phoenix surrenders 104.7 PPG (3rd-most in NBA) despite respectable shooting defense numbers of 45.4% FG (18th in league) on 35.2% threes (16th in NBA). The club is actually worse on the boards than L.A., as the Suns have a minus-2.2 RPG margin this season. Five Phoenix players average more than 13 points per game, led by SG Goran Dragic (16.9 PPG, 4.1 APG, 3.6 RPG) who shoots 51% FG and 35% threes on the season. He has scored 19.5 PPG during his team's two-game win streak, and has also lit up the Lakers this season with 19.3 PPG on 50% FG (4-of-9 threes) with 4.7 RPG. PG Eric Bledsoe (16.4 PPG, 5.9 APG, 5.2 RPG, 1.6 SPG) is the team's most important player, who has 50 assists and only 19 turnovers (2.6 Ast/TO ratio) in the month of January. He has been outstanding in this area versus the Lakers too (3.6 Ast/TO ratio) to go along with 14.7 PPG (47% FG, 4-of-7 threes), 6.0 APG, 4.7 RPG and 1.3 SPG. When this team goes to a three-guard lineup, PG Isaiah Thomas (14.3 PPG, 3.7 APG, 39% threes) speeds up the pace. He has scored only 11 points on 4-of-12 shooting in the past two games combined, but has been a big part of why his team is on the verge of a season sweep. In the three wins over L.A. this season, Thomas has 20.0 PPG on 62% FG (8-of-12 threes) with 16 assists, six steals and only three turnovers in the three meetings combined. PF Markieff Morris (15.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG) has pumped in 21.7 PPG (58% FG) with 5.7 RPG in his past three games, and has also played well versus the Lakers this season with 15.7 PPG (50% FG), 6.7 RPG and 3.3 APG.


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