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Spurs seek 4th straight win Tuesday at Nuggets
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 1/20/2015  at  5:24:00 AM
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SAN ANTONIO SPURS (26-16)

at DENVER NUGGETS (18-23)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:05 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -8, Total: 205

The red-hot Spurs look for a fourth straight victory when they begin a quick two-game road trip Tuesday night versus the Nuggets.

San Antonio has not had its typical season as it deals with its aging superstars and injuries, but the team has gotten back to near full strength and has come away with SU victories in eight of the past 11 games (6-4-1 ATS). In that time the defense has stepped up the most by holding opponents to 94.4 PPG with four teams shooting worse than 40% from the field. The Spurs were really impressive in their most recent contest on Sunday, as they crushed the Jazz by a score of 89-69 as big 12-point favorites. They held Utah to just 33.3% shooting and despite hitting only 31-of-80 shots (38.8%) themselves, were able to get plenty of points from the free-throw line (19). Denver has had its issues with consistency this season, and after rattling off five consecutive SU wins (4-1 ATS) at the start of January, it has lost its past three contests (0-2-1 ATS). The first of the three losses came as no surprise when the 8-point underdog Nuggets visited the Mavs Friday and lost 97-89, making a mere 41% of their shots in the process. The next night, they suffered a very tough 113-105 defeat as 11.5-point home favorites against Minnesota and allowed the Timberwolves to hit 43-of-80 FG (53.7%), and on Monday, Denver suffered an embarrassing 122-79 loss on the road against the Warriors where it was outshot 54.3% FG to 34.5% FG. Road games have not come easy for the Spurs, as they are 11-10 (both SU and ATS) in away contests this year and will have the ever-daunting task of taking on the Nuggets in the high altitude where they are 12-9 SU (9-10-2 ATS). It has been all San Antonio in the series between these two clubs, going 6-2 SU (4-4 ATS) since the start of the 2012 campaign and putting up an average of 107.5 PPG in that time. The teams already met once this year when Denver fell 99-91 as a 5-point home underdog, due to 41.0% FG and 21 turnovers. Some trends to keep an eye on include that San Antonio is 22-9 ATS (71%) over the past two seasons after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers, while Denver is 32-26 ATS (55%) when revenging a same-season loss versus an opponent in the past three seasons. On the injury front, the Spurs will likely have the services of SF Kawhi Leonard (hand), but will continue to play without SG Marco Belinelli (groin) for the foreseeable future. The Nuggets will once again be without SF Danilo Gallinari (knee) and C JaVale McGee (leg) for this matchup.

Can the Spurs cover the hefty spread in a difficult environment? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 56% ATS record (106-85-1) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, the experts have a stellar 67% ATS (43-21) record since Jan. 2, led by StatFox Scott, who is a sizzling 70% ATS (14-6) in Best Bets since Dec. 21, improving his record to 55% ATS (33-27) for the season. StatFox Brian is 63% ATS (24-14) in Best Bets since Nov. 29, and is now 57% ATS (34-26) in season Best Bets, while StatFox Gary is 69% ATS (9-4) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 1, and 57% ATS (34-26) this season. StatFox Zach is 69% ATS (9-4) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 2, while StatFox Dave is 58% ATS (7-5) since Jan. 2.

The Spurs offense has been able to put up 101.8 PPG this season (11th in NBA) behind 46.2% shooting from the floor (8th in league) as they rank sixth in the NBA with 24.6 APG. On the other end of the court, they are allowing opponents to score 97.6 PPG (7th in NBA) on 44.2% shooting. PF Tim Duncan (14.9 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 2.0 BPG) continues to be a force despite being 38 years old, and has a double-double in three of his past four games, but is coming off a poor game against the Jazz (11 points, 6 rebounds). He hit just 5-of-14 FG attempts for 15 points and added nine rebounds with three blocks in the first go-around against Denver this season. SF Kawhi Leonard (15.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.0 SPG) has looked like his old self in the two games since returning from a 15-game absence due to a hand injury, averaging 16.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG and 2.5 SPG. His performance against the Nuggets on Dec. 14 was one of his best on the season as he netted 18 points to go with eight rebounds, four assists, six blocks and five steals. PG Tony Parker (14.5 PPG, 4.7 APG) has also recently returned from a trip to the injured list, but has been ineffective over seven contests in January with just 9.6 PPG and 3.0 RPG. He was unable to go when these teams last met, but has averaged 16.2 PPG (49% FG) and 5.9 APG over 40 career games (39 starts) in this series.

Denver’s offense hasn’t been as prolific this year as in seasons past, but the club is still netting 101.7 PPG behind a combined 43.6% FG (5th-worst in league). It has been the defense that has been most problematic though, as it allows 104.2 PPG (5th-worst in NBA) on 44.9% shooting. PG Ty Lawson (17.0 PPG, 10.1 APG, 1.3 SPG) has been the only consistent player this season, and he has been able to score 20.6 PPG over his past five games. He will look to do much better against this Spurs team this time around, as Lawson shot horribly in the Dec. 14 loss with six points on 2-of-10 FG, but did have 10 assists. PF Kenneth Faried (11.7 PPG, 8.8 RPG) has cooled off lately and has failed to put up double-digit points or rebounds in each of his past two contests. He was unable to be on the court against San Antonio in their last meeting, but looks to improve on his tremendous stats from three meetings last season when he averaged a double-double (19.0 PPG, 10.3 RPG). SF Wilson Chandler (14.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG) has made a mere 39% of his shots in his past four games and could not find his rhythm against the Warriors Monday with just seven points and six rebounds. He scored 14 points on 6-of-10 shooting over 36 injury-riddled minutes the last time he met the Spurs.


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