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No. 15 UNC visits Wake Forest Wednesday
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Published: 1/21/2015  at  9:34:00 AM
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NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (14-4)

at WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS (9-9)

Lawrence Joel Coliseum – Winston-Salem, NC
Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: North Carolina -7.5, Total: 139

No. 15 North Carolina looks to get another ACC victory as it travels to Winston-Salem to take on in-state rival Wake Forest on Wednesday night.

The Tar Heels (10-8 ATS, 8-7 UNDER) are finally starting to resemble a team that has Final Four aspirations. Roy Williams’ team has won eight of its past nine games, with the only defeat being a one-point loss to Notre Dame. These two teams split last season's series, with Wake Forest winning 73-67 at home. However, North Carolina returned the favor by winning by 33 points in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels aren’t the best 3-point shooting team in college basketball (32.0%), but they are at their best when they are attacking the rim and getting to the free-throw line, going 15-5 ATS in the past three seasons when attempting 19 to 24 free throws. They have also been very good when making 47% to 53% field goals (22-6 ATS the past three seasons), which goes hand-in-hand with attacking the paint and getting to the line. Danny Manning’s team has started to play much better with seven straight ATS wins, but the Demon Deacons have not been able to get over the hump. They enter this game losing three of their past four games SU, but all three of those losses were by a combined 20 points. The Tar Heels enter this game averaging 79 points, and Wake Forest has been great against potent offenses, going 6-0 ATS at home in the past three seasons against teams that average 77+ points per game. Both teams could be missing players as UNC remains without SGs Stillman White (foot) and Joel Berry II (groin), while Wake Forest PF Aaron Rountree III (hand) is listed as questionable for Wednesday.

Can Carolina cover the moderate spread on the road? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 56% ATS mark (59-46) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 67% ATS (14-7) during this timeframe to improve to 63% ATS (32-19) for the season. StatFox Brian is 65% ATS (11-6) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 55% ATS (28-23) this season, while StatFox Zach is on a 54% ATS (7-6) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a profitable 53% ATS mark (27-24) this season. StatFox Scott is a strong 62% ATS (13-8) in Best Bets since Dec. 23 and StatFox Dave is 55% ATS (6-5) in Best Bets since Jan. 6.

The Tar Heels rank very high in many different categories, ranking 2nd in the nation in rebounding (44.3 RPG), 5th in assists (17.8 APG), 20th in scoring (79.0 PPG) and 80th in shooting (45.6% FG). Roy Williams’ teams have been at their best when they are able to get out and run in the open floor. The leader of the team is PG Marcus Paige (13.6 PPG, 3.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 38% threes), who is one of the best passing guards in college basketball. Paige does a very good job of attacking the defense, where he can both score the ball, or find the open guy. He is also starting to get his three-point shot down (7-of-12 threes in past two games), which will make him nearly impossible to stop. When he is getting out in the open floor, he has a lot of guys that finish at the rim, as PF Kennedy Meeks (12.6 PPG, 8.4 RPG and 1.4 BPG) and C Brice Johnson (11.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG and 53% FG) are two superior athletes who are excellent around the basket. These two are not the biggest, or most physical interior players, so they have to get out and use their athleticism to score the ball. On defense, the team ranks 152nd in points allowed (64.9 PPG), but they make it difficult to finish at the rim (36.6% FG) because of their athleticism. At times, they can give up easy baskets after they score the ball, but in the half-court sets, North Carolina can be very difficult to score on.

Wake Forest enters this game ranked 15th in the nation in rebounding (40.1 RPG), 91st in assists (14.2 APG), 100th in scoring (71.3 PPG) and 176th in shooting (43.5% FG). The ability of the Demon Deacons to rebound the ball will be huge, as North Carolina has been able to win a number of games this year because of the advantage on the glass. PG Codi Miller-McIntyre (13.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 3.9 APG) is the leading scorer on this Wake Forest team, but he has really struggled from the three-point line (29% threes). When Miller-McIntyre is able to get out and run, he is at his best. He also struggles from the free-throw line (58% FT), so the Tar Heels will not hesitate to be aggressive against him at the basket. PF Devin Thomas (12.9 PPG, 9.7 RPG and 52 % FG) is a guy that does not get a lot of talk, but he is a very good player who can really dominate a game on the glass. He is extremely athletic, but he is also more physical than the North Carolina interior players, so he has an opportunity to really dominate the glass on Wednesday night. As a team, Wake Forest shoots only 64.5% from the free-throw line, which can play a big role in a close game. SG Mitchell Wilbekin (8.1 PPG, 1.9 APG and 42% threes) is the team’s only real threat from the three-point line, so he will have to hit some shots to open up scoring opportunities for Thomas.


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