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Krzyzewski seeks historic win Sunday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/25/2015  at  5:13:00 AM
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DUKE BLUE DEVILS (16-2)

at ST. JOHN'S RED STORM (13-5)

Madison Square Garden - New York, NY
Tip-off: Sunday, 2:00 p.m. ET
Line: Duke -6

Mike Krzyzewski tries to win his 1,000th game as a collegiate coach on Sunday when his No. 5 Duke team visits St. John's.

Krzyzewski picked up wins 998 and 999 in the previous eight days with impressive double-digit victories at Louisville (63-52) last Saturday and versus Pittsburgh (79-65) on Monday. This followed a stunning two-game losing skid where the Blue Devils lost by 12 points at NC State and by 16 points at home to Miami. The Red Storm opened the season with 11 wins in their first 12 games, but have dropped four of their past six contests SU. They did beat Marquette 60-57 on Wednesday but failed to cover the 6.5-point spread, to fall to 1-5 ATS in the past six games. These schools have played 14 times since 1999, with Duke holding a commanding 11-3 SU advantage, but the Red Storm are an impressive 10-4 ATS in these games, including four straight ATS wins. These teams last met three seasons ago in Durham where the Blue Devils won 83-76 but didn't come close to covering the 18-point spread. Duke is 14-1 SU (8-7 ATS) after an SU win this season, but it just 2-6 ATS on 3+ days rest. On the other hand, St. John's is 6-3-1 ATS after an SU win and 6-3 ATS with at least three days' rest this season.

Can Mike Krzyzewski pick up win No. 1,000 on Sunday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 58% ATS mark (65-48) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 70% ATS (16-7) during this timeframe to improve to 64% ATS (34-19) for the season. StatFox Brian is 67% ATS (12-6) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 56% ATS (29-23) this season, while StatFox Zach is on a 60% ATS (9-6) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a solid 55% ATS mark (29-24) this season. StatFox Scott is a strong 59% ATS (13-9) in Best Bets since Dec. 23.

Duke remains one of the top offenses in college basketball, ranking among the top-20 teams (through Thursday) in scoring (81.8 PPG, 10th in NCAA), shooting (50.0% FG, 6th in nation) and Ast/TO ratio (1.41, 18th in NCAA). This club also rebounds very well with a +7.0 RPG margin and makes 7.6 threes per game on a strong 37.4% clip. The defense is also respectable with 63.7 PPG allowed on 42.1% FG. The best player on the team -- and maybe the best in the country -- is freshman C Jahlil Okafor (18.6 PPG, 8.9 RPG) who has scored in double-figures in all 18 games. He has also grabbed at least six rebounds in 16-of-18 contests, but is coming off a season-low three boards in 28 minutes versus Pittsburgh on Monday. Although Okafor makes only 59% FT for the season, he has done a much better job at the line this month with a 69% FT clip (34-49). PF Amile Jefferson (8.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG) has been a beast on the boards in his past four games with 9.0 RPG to go along with 11.3 PPG. This duo will have to remain strong inside against the talented shot-blockers for St. John's. Duke's backcourt has also been great this season, as freshman PG Tyus Jones (10.1 PPG, 5.1 APG), broke out of a slump in a big way with 16.0 PPG and 6.0 APG in his past two games. For the season, Jones carries an impressive 3.0 Ast/TO ratio and shoots 37% from three-point land. SG Quinn Cook (14.2 PPG, 3.4 APG) is also a great long-range shooter (38% FG), but he has been ice-cold in the past two games with 9.0 PPG on 5-of-19 FG and 3-of-15 threes.

St. John's has a quality offense that scores 71.1 PPG on 44.4% FG, but the club's real strength is defense, especially the interior. The Red Storm average 6.9 blocks per game (5th in NCAA through Thursday) and 8.7 steals per game (T-14th in nation through Thursday) while holding opponents to a mere 38.5% FG (32nd in NCAA through Thursday). But despite having great rim protectors, they are a poor rebounding team with a minus-2.1 RPG margin, and they also struggle mightily from downtown (31.8% threes). SG D'Angelo Harrison (20.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG) is the team's best long-range shooter (37% threes) and is the school's most accurate foul shooter (82% FT). He has scored at least nine points in all 17 games this season, but his shot has been way off in the past two games where he's a dismal 5-for-28 FG (18%) and 3-of-14 threes (21%). SG Rysheed Jordan (13.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.1 SPG) has scored at least 15 points in three straight games where he has logged a hefty 37.7 MPG, and he will be needed to disrupt Duke's flow on offense. SF Sir'Dominic Pointer (11.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.0 APG) is also on a three-game streak of scoring 10+ points, averaging 14.3 PPG and 7.0 RPG during this surge. Pointer's versatility always makes for a difficult matchup for his opponent. C Chris Obekpa (7.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 3.5 BPG) is counted on much more for his defense than offense, and he is averaging only 5.0 PPG on 5-of-14 FG in the past three games.


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