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Struggling Florida visits Alabama on Tuesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/27/2015  at  8:13:00 AM
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FLORIDA GATORS (10-9)

at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (13-6)

Coleman Coliseum - Tuscaloosa, AL
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Alabama -2

Florida looks to turn its season around with a big victory in Alabama on Tuesday.

The Gators are in the midst of a dreadful season and they’ve dropped three straight games (both SU and ATS), including a 72-71 loss as 1-point road favorites at Ole Miss on Saturday. The team has allowed 72 or more points in each of those defeats and will need to be better defensively going forward. The good news is that they are 27-12 ATS after 3+ ATS losses since 1997. The Crimson Tide, meanwhile, snapped a three-game losing skid with a 57-55 win as 11-point home favorites over Auburn on Saturday. While Alabama is 11-1 SU at home, the club is just 4-5-1 ATS in those contests. The Crimson Tide are 10-0 SU as a favorite this season, but they’ve covered in just five of those games. The Gators have been dominant in this head-to-head series, winning nine straight games SU and 16 of the past 18 as well. However, Florida is 0-4-1 ATS in its past five meetings with Alabama and is just 4-8-1 ATS in this series since 2006. The Gators have been much better ATS when playing at Coleman Coliseum though, as they’ve now won four straight games SU in Alabama and are 3-1 ATS in those contests. While Florida has had its struggles this season, the team is 2-0 ATS when playing as an underdog on the road. The Crimson Tide, meanwhile, are 5-1 ATS after failing to cover in their previous game and 3-1 ATS on two days' rest this season. They are also 22-9 ATS in the past three seasons after going Under the total in their previous game. There are no significant injuries for either school.

Which school will pick up the crucial SEC victory on Tuesday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 58% ATS mark (73-52) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is a stellar 72% ATS (18-7) during this timeframe to improve to 66% ATS (36-19) for the season. StatFox Brian is 62% ATS (13-8) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 55% ATS (30-25) this season, while StatFox Zach is on a 59% ATS (10-7) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a solid 55% ATS mark (30-25) this season. StatFox Dave is a sizzling 70% ATS (7-3) in Best Bets since Jan. 13, and StatFox Scott is a strong 60% ATS (15-10) in Best Bets since Dec. 23.

This Florida offense has really struggled this season, scoring just 67.5 PPG (180th in NCAA) on 44.9% FG (104th in nation) despite a solid 34.6% threes. Defensively it’s been a whole different story with the team allowing just 59.6 PPG (34th in NCAA) on 40.5% FG and 34.6% threes. SG Michael Frazier II (13.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 41% threes) had his best game of the season in the loss on Saturday, finishing with 27 points, five rebounds and three assists in 37 minutes of action. The Gators will need him to be on his game against this tough Crimson Tide team. He had 18 points (5-of-13 threes) in 33 minutes in his last visit to Coleman Coliseum. SF Dorian Finney-Smith (13.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.2 SPG) is Florida’s most consistent player and he brings it on both ends of the floor. The forward has now scored in double-digits in each of the past 12 games and his outside shooting has been remarkable this season (42% threes). The Gators will need him to knock down shots against Alabama, but it won’t be easy, as the Crimson Tide have given up just nine made threes in their past two games. PG Kasey Hill (7.7 PPG, 4.5 APG) is going to need to play with a lot of discipline against Alabama on Tuesday. Hill has had four fouls in two of the past three games and he must find a way to stay aggressive while also preventing himself from putting his opponents on the line. He dished out six assists against Ole Miss, but he didn’t connect on any of his three field goal attempts and finished the game with one point due to some terrible foul shooting (1-of-4 FT).

Alabama has not beaten Florida in the past nine meetings, but it will have a very good chance to snap its losing streak in this series with a struggling Gators team coming to Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide are averaging just 69.5 PPG (127th in NCAA) on 45.1% FG (99h in nation) and 31.0% threes. Defensively is where Alabama needs to improve, as it is allowing 63.7 PPG (121st in NCAA) on 41.1% FG and 31.9% threes. The Crimson Tide are led by SG Levi Randolph (15.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG), who is an extremely efficient offensive player (51% FG). Randolph excels at attacking the basket and he will put a lot of pressure on the Florida big men to defend the rim. When Alabama hosted Florida last season, Randolph came off the bench and gave the Tide 11 points and four rebounds in 24 minutes of action. PG Ricky Tarrant (13.1 PPG) is Alabama’s second-best scoring option. The shoot-first point guard had nine points in just 16 minutes in the win versus Auburn last game and was ejected for throwing an elbow late in the game. He had 21 points in 38 minutes in an overtime loss to Arkansas just two days earlier and will need to stay on the court to provide his team with another scoring presence outside of Randolph. SG Rodney Cooper (10.7 PPG, 3.9 RPG) will be an X-factor for the Tide in this game. He had just eight points in the loss to Auburn, but averaged 12.5 PPG in Alabama’s previous two games. He is a lethal outside shooter (42% threes) and his team will need him to knock down shots in this game.


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