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No. 1 Kentucky seeks 20-0 start Thursday at Missouri
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/29/2015  at  5:24:00 AM
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KENTUCKY WILDCATS (19-0)

at MISSOURI TIGERS (7-12)

Mizzou Arena - Columbia, MO
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: TBD

No. 1 Kentucky looks to improve to 20-0 on Thursday with a road win versus heavy underdog Missouri.

Kentucky was a 12-point favorite at South Carolina on Saturday and won 58-43 for its 19th straight victory. The Wildcats have now held their past four opponents to under 60 points (46.3 PPG) and they’ve covered in three of those contests. The Tigers, meanwhile, have now dropped five straight games after a 61-60 loss at home against Arkansas on Saturday. They covered the 6.5-point spread in that contest for their only ATS win in their past five games (1-3-1 ATS). Kentucky played host when these two teams met on Jan. 13 and the Wildcats won that game 86-37 as 24-point favorites. These teams have met five times since 1997 with Kentucky winning every time and covering the four games that had lines. In last season's meeting in Columbia, the Wildcats won 84-79. While being undefeated SU is impressive on its own, Kentucky is 3-1 ATS on the road this season, as it was favored in all four of those contests. Fifteen of its 19 games this season have finished Under the total. Missouri’s games have been on the low-scoring side as well, as it has now gone Under the total in four straight contests, but the school is 1-11 SU (4-7-1 ATS) in the underdog role this season.

Will the Wildcats trounce the Tigers for the second time in two weeks? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 58% ATS mark (73-52) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is a stellar 72% ATS (18-7) during this timeframe to improve to 66% ATS (36-19) for the season. StatFox Brian is 62% ATS (13-8) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 55% ATS (30-25) this season, while StatFox Zach is on a 59% ATS (10-7) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a solid 55% ATS mark (30-25) this season. StatFox Dave is a sizzling 70% ATS (7-3) in Best Bets since Jan. 13, and StatFox Scott is a strong 60% ATS (15-10) in Best Bets since Dec. 23.

Kentucky averages a strong 74.6 PPG on 45.7% FG (35.7% threes), but that is not where this team wins games. The Wildcats have been dominant defensively this season, allowing only 50.4 PPG (2nd in NCAA) thanks to a nation's-best 8.2 BPG leading to opponents making an NCAA-low 31.7% FG and 27.1% threes (8th in nation through Monday). C Willie Cauley-Stein (9.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG) and PF Karl-Anthony Towns (8.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.5 BPG) are the tandem that defends the rim for Kentucky. Cauley-Stein is one of the best athletes in college basketball and he provides this team with tons of energy on both ends of the floor. The freshman Towns is one of the prized NBA prospects in college basketball at the moment. He is an incredible shot blocker, but he has not been getting many touches offensively. Towns has now failed to reach double-digits in points in four of the past five games, and the Wildcats will need to do a better job of getting him the ball when he has positioning. He had 12 points, 10 rebounds and five blocks in the win over Missouri on Jan. 13. SG Aaron Harrison (11.6 PPG) led all scorers with 16 points in that game. Harrison has taken a huge step back this season and a lot of that has to do with his struggling outsider jumper (32% threes). His team will need him to start scoring more efficiently, so it’s going to be important that he starts to take better pride in his shot selection. PG Tyler Ulis (5.6 PPG, 3.7 APG) had six points and six assists in the victory over South Carolina on Saturday. He is a major spark off the bench for this team and he should be seeing an increase in minutes going forward.

The Tigers have been pretty miserable as of late, losing five straight games, and a matchup with Kentucky isn’t going to necessarily excite the team. Missouri struggles offensively with just 63.2 PPG on 41.4% FG and 35.3% threes, which is an issue considering it will be facing one of the best defensive teams in basketball. Missouri's defense is also subpar, allowing 68.1 PPG on 41.7% FG and 33.8% threes. When these teams met on Jan. 13, the Tigers were held to just 16-of-59 FG (27.1%) and an embarrassing 1-of-18 from three-point range. PF Johnathan Williams III (12.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG) is the Tigers’ leading scorer, but he was held to just three points on a dreadful 1-of-13 FG in the game against Kentucky. But Williams is coming off a 15-point, 10-rebound performance against Arkansas on Saturday, and Missouri will need him to play with that type of confidence in this one. SG Montaque Gill-Caesar (10.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG) didn’t pay against Kentucky in their last meeting and could add some firepower for this team. He had 16 points against Arkansas and can be a lethal shooter once he gets himself going. He was 3-for-3 from downtown against the Razorbacks, and has shot it well from three all season with a 38% clip. The last time these teams played, the Tigers had to turn to PF Keanau Post (3.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG) in order to try to match the size of Kentucky to an extent. Post responded well with 10 points and six rebounds, and there’s a good chance Missouri gives him some extended minutes in order to bang with Cauley-Stein and Towns.


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