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Red-hot Grizzlies host Thunder Saturday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/31/2015  at  4:59:00 AM
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OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (23-23)

at MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (34-12)

Tip-off: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Memphis -6.5

The Grizzlies go for their sixth straight victory on Saturday when they host a struggling Thunder team.

The Thunder are in trouble, as a 100-92 defeat in New York gives them three losses in their past four games. Oklahoma City has now lost ATS in four straight as well, and the team has really struggled offensively, averaging just 93.8 PPG over the past four games. The Thunder’s offensive woes could be a major issue against a Grizzlies team that is allowing just 79.5 PPG over its past two games. Memphis is coming off of a 99-69 victory as a 9.5-point home favorite against the Nuggets on Thursday. The Grizzlies have won five straight games and nine of their past 10 as well. They have done so in relatively dominant fashion, as they are 7-2-1 ATS in those contests. These teams have met just once this season on Nov. 7 when the Grizzlies won 91-89 at Oklahoma City as 6.5-point favorites in a game where neither Kevin Durant nor Russell Westbrook played. The Thunder, however, have won the past two games they’ve played at FedEx Forum SU and they covered in the most recent meeting, while pushing in the victory before it. This Thunder team is just 2-12 SU as an away underdog this season and 8-15-1 ATS when coming off of an ATS loss. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are 14-9 ATS this season when coming off of an ATS win. They are also 19-5 SU when playing as a home favorite. SF Kevin Durant (toe) is questionable for the Thunder after missing the past two games and not participating in Oklahoma City’s practice on Thursday. PG Mike Conley (wrist) is questionable for the Grizzlies after missing the past two games as well.

Can the Grizzlies stay hot with a victory over the Thunder on Saturday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 56% ATS record (121-95-1) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, the experts have a huge 61% ATS (61-39) record since Jan. 2, led by StatFox Gary, who is a sizzling 65% ATS (13-7) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 1, and 57% ATS (38-29) this season. StatFox Scott is also red-hot with a 69% ATS (18-8) mark in Best Bets since Dec. 21, improving his record to 56% ATS (37-29) for the season. StatFox Brian is 60% ATS (27-18) in Best Bets since Nov. 29, and is now 55% ATS (37-30) in season Best Bets, while StatFox Zach is 57% ATS (12-9) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 2.

Oklahoma City cannot afford to keep losing the way it has been or the team will find itself out of the playoff race in no time. SF Kevin Durant (25.6 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.1 APG) has missed the past two games for the Thunder and the team will really need him to return for this matchup with Memphis. The Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in basketball, and this Thunder team scored only 92 points against the Knicks without its star player on Wednesday. PG Russell Westbrook (25.2 PPG, 7.5 APG, 5.9 RPG) had 40 points, four assists, four rebounds and two steals in 35 minutes of action against New York. The guard has been shooting the ball horribly in recent games (39% FG over past five contests) and will need to be more efficient, but it will be hard for him to do so without Durant. Teams are able to focus all of their attention on Westbrook and that makes him settle for contested shots. PF Serge Ibaka (14.1 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.2 BPG) will really need to step his game up against Memphis, with or without Durant in the lineup. Ibaka has a really difficult matchup with PF Zach Randolph in this one, and he’ll need to hold his own on both ends of the floor. When these teams met in November, Ibaka had 16 points, seven rebounds and a +10 rating, but had zero blocks and five turnovers. One guy who has been struggling for Oklahoma City is SG Dion Waiters (10.6 PPG). Waiters is averaging just 9.6 PPG (33% FG, 22% threes) over the past five games and he is not providing the scoring punch that this team was expecting when it acquired him in a trade from Cleveland. He must take the ball to the basket in order to get some easy buckets because he has been settling for too many jumpers over the past few games.

PF Zach Randolph (17.0 PPG, 12.0 RPG) is on a tear recently and a 15-point, 17-rebound performance against the Nuggets on Thursday gave Randolph his 11th straight double-double. The forward has been on fire recently and he’ll be counted on to score against this struggling Thunder team. Defensively, he’ll have his work cut out for him against Serge Ibaka, and he’d be wise to let Ibaka settle for outside shots and not get close to the basket. C Marc Gasol (18.7 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.7 BPG) should be extremely well-rested after playing just 25 minutes against the Nuggets on Thursday. The Thunder don’t have anybody that can really guard Gasol in the post, so he should be able to come through with a great performance in this game. SF Jeff Green (16.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG) will have his work cut out for him if Kevin Durant is in the lineup for Oklahoma City. Green has the length to make things difficult on his former teammate and will need to really step it up for Memphis on Friday. If Durant is out, Green will be counted on to be more aggressive scoring the basket because he would have a positional advantage over anybody else that starts at small forward for the Thunder. PG Mike Conley (17.4 PPG, 5.6 APG) would be a huge addition if he is able to return from his wrist injury. Conley really struggled in the two games before he decided to sit out, averaging just 7.0 PPG in 21.5 MPG in those contests. The Grizzlies will need him to come back and be the same player he was before hurting his wrist, as Russell Westbrook will be very difficult to cover for any of Memphis’ backup point guards. Conley scored a team-high 20 points with five assists when these teams first met early in the season.


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