KFC Yum! Center – Louisville, KY
Tip-off: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Line: Louisville -5, Total: 144.5

No.10 Louisville looks for payback at home Saturday after losing a heartbreaker in Chapel Hill to No.13 North Carolina earlier this month.

This ACC marquee matchup features two exciting teams that like to get out and run, but are also two of the premier defensive squads in the country (Louisville 37% FG allowed, T-8th in NCAA; North Carolina, 37.4% FG allowed, T-11th in NCAA). This is a rematch of a heart-stopping 72-71 North Carolina win on a Marcus Paige layup with 8.5 seconds left just 21 days ago in Chapel Hill. The aforementioned thriller was the first-ever ACC meeting between these two squads, but these national powers have actually squared off three times since 2008 with North Carolina coming out on top each time (including a 93-84 win as a six-point underdog in 2013 at the KFC Yum! Center). North Carolina features the ACC’s top scoring offense in conference play (77.9 PPG) while Louisville is fourth in the conference at 72.1 PPG. Both squads have had their ATS issues in ACC play (Louisville 2-5 ATS; North Carolina 2-5-1 ATS), however, it should be noted that both North Carolina’s covers – which were also SU wins (at Clemson, at Wake Forest) – were on the road, as the Tar Heels are 3-0 on the road in ACC play. Louisville’s ATS home woes have been a season-long trend (2-9-1). The Cardinals are 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS against Top 25 foes at home this season (Ohio State, Kentucky, Duke). Both teams are fresh off victories, with North Carolina winning at home versus Syracuse on Monday, marking its sixth straight win since beating Louisville on Jan. 10. The Cardinals scooped up two road wins (Pittsburgh on Sunday, Boston College on Wednesday) in the past five days.

Can Louisville take care of business at home and knock off a red-hot UNC squad? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 59% ATS mark (82-57) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is a stellar 68% ATS (19-9) during this timeframe to improve to 64% ATS (37-21) for the season. StatFox Brian is 63% ATS (15-9) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 55% ATS (32-26) this season, while StatFox Zach is on a 65% ATS (13-7) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 57% ATS mark (33-25) this season. StatFox Dave is also heating up with a 62% ATS (8-5) mark in Best Bets since Jan. 13, and StatFox Scott is a strong 63% ATS (17-10) in Best Bets since Dec. 23.

North Carolina’s attack is multi-faceted, as it can beat you inside with a bruiser, 270-pound PF Kennedy Meeks (13 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG) or a tornado of arms and limbs in 210-pound C Brice Johnson (12.2 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.0 BPG). On the wing the Heels have versatile swingmen who can initiate offense like J.P. Tokoto (9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.1 APG) and freshman Justin Jackson (10 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.6 APG). At the point, is preseason All-American guard, PG Marcus Paige (14.1 PPG, 4.2 APG, 39.1% threes). If Paige’s numbers don’t look like someone who should’ve garnered so many preseason honors, they paint a very good picture of why North Carolina – a team that has talent to rival just about anyone in the country – isn’t more dominant. Paige has been battling plantar fasciitis for much of this season, and has admittedly been at less than 100 percent. It’s no coincidence that during North Carolina’s current six-game win streak, Paige has seemingly found his stroke, as the Tar Heels get into the teeth of conference play (15.7 PPG, 5.7 APG, 2.3 SPG, 49% threes on 2.8 makes per game). Johnson has also been a beast during the winning streak, averaging a double-double (14.5 PPG, 10 RPG, 66% FG) in that six-game stretch. The aforementioned starting five plays heavy minutes due to injuries to bench players, G Joel Berry and F Theo Pinson. Coach Roy Williams, who is normally one to tinker with his bench, has his hand forced to a tight seven-man rotation. And while his troops keep winning, the added minutes may be taking a toll on their perimeter defense as of late. In North Carolina’s past two games, Florida State guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes went for 35 points and Syracuse guard Trevor Cooney dropped 28 points.

As always with Rick Pitino-coached teams, Louisville’s trademark is its full-court press, designed to create offense from defense with steals and turnovers. It should come as no surprise that the relentless attack is led by two ball-hawking guards, SG Terry Rozier (18.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.1 SPG – 2nd ACC) and PG Chris Jones (13.4 PPG, 3.9 APG, 2.0 SPG – 3rd ACC). The last line of defense for Louisville’s pressure is PF Montrezl Harrell (14.9 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 1.2 BPG), who along with 6-foot-10 C Chinanu Onuaku (1.6 BPG) and 6-foot-10 C Mangok Mathiang (1.3 BPG), give Louisville’s guards the luxury of gambling on defense, as the Cardinals lead the ACC in blocks (5.9 BPG, 6th in NCAA). Louisville, not surprisingly, also leads the ACC in steals (9.3 SPG). Facing a North Carolina squad with a penchant for being loose with the basketball (6.9 SPG against, 266th in NCAA) would seem to be a huge plus for the Cardinals, but this statistical mismatch didn’t come into play in round one of this budding rivalry. Where this game could slow down, against Louisville’s favor, is if UNC can tame the Louisville press yet again. Unlike Onuaku and Mathiang, who are defense-only big men, North Carolina’s Meeks, Johnson and Tokoto were all able to score in double-figures during the first meeting, as their skill around the basket were more than the Louisville big men were used to handling. The 6-foot-8 Harrell especially struggled (9 points, 5 rebounds) in the first matchup. Rozier and Jones both had stellar games earlier this month in Chapel Hill (25 points and 19 points, respectively), therefore it’s paramount that another threat step up for Louisville. Pitino will be looking for something, anything, from wildly-inconsistent SF Wayne Blackshear (11.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 29% threes). The Cardinals are going to need Blackshear to snap out of a nasty funk in his past three games (24% FG, 18% threes) unless they plan to ride Rozier, Jones, and Harrell once again. If one player could possibly put Louisville on his back, it could very well be Rozier, who’s playing as well as any guard in the country right now. He’s remarkably consistent with double-figure scoring in every game but one this season, and has been white-hot from the field in conference play with 20.0 PPG on 53% FG in past seven games. Not only is the athletic Rozier hard to contain at the rim, he’s been lethal from long-range in his past four games making 11-of-17 threes.