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No. 13 UNC hosts No. 2 Virginia Monday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 2/2/2015  at  11:37:00 AM
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VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (19-1)

at NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (17-5)

Dean E. Smith Center – Chapel Hill, NC
Tip-off: Monday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Even

A pair of top-25 teams coming off heart-breaking losses will try to get back in the win column on Monday night when No. 2 Virginia visits No. 13 North Carolina in a key ACC matchup.

The Cavaliers (12-6 ATS overall, 6-1 ATS on road) were on the verge of improving to 20-0 with a five-point lead with less than three minutes remaining in Saturday's home game versus Duke, but allowed the Blue Devils to close the game on an 11-0 run to win 69-63. The Tar Heels (11-10-1 ATS overall, 4-6-1 ATS at home) blew an even bigger lead Saturday at Louisville when they held an 18-point cushion in the second half, but allowed the Cardinals to come back and win 78-68 in overtime. Monday will be a contrast of styles, as Virginia has a methodical offense and leads the nation in scoring defense (50.2 PPG allowed), while North Carolina pumps in 79.5 points per game (17th in nation) with an up-tempo attack. The Tar Heels have dominated this overall series, but since Tony Bennett became the Cavaliers head coach, UNC has a slim 4-3 SU edge, while UVa holds the commanding 5-2 ATS advantage. The home team has won four of the past five meetings, including the Cavaliers 76-61 rout last season when they attempted 29 free throws to only 12 for their opponent. But the last meeting in Chapel Hill on Feb. 16, 2013 was a 93-81 Tar Heels win as they outshot their ACC foe 59% FG to 49% FG. Both teams have hugely favorable betting trends, as Virginia is 18-4 ATS (82%) when facing a team with a winning record after 15+ games in the past two seasons, while North Carolina is 53-25 ATS (68%) after an SU loss under head coach Roy Williams. Both teams have also played well on short rest (less than two days off), with the Cavaliers going 3-0 SU (1-0 ATS) with a +22.3 PPG margin and the Tar Heels going 4-1 SU (3-1-1 ATS) with a +17.2 PPG margin in this scenario. The only new injury for either team is Carolina starting PG Marcus Paige who tweaked his ankle on Saturday, but is probable to suit up on Monday.

Which school will pick up the confidence-boosting win on Monday night? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 60% ATS mark (88-59-3) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is a stellar 67% ATS (20-10) during this timeframe to improve to 63% ATS (38-22) for the season. StatFox Brian is 64% ATS (16-9-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 56% ATS (33-26-1) this season, while StatFox Zach is on a 68% ATS (15-7) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 58% ATS mark (35-25) this season. StatFox Dave is also heating up with a 57% ATS (8-6-1) mark in Best Bets since Jan. 13, and StatFox Scott is a stellar 66% ATS (19-10-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 23.

Virginia is not a high-scoring offense at 68.0 PPG (T-161st in NCAA), but it is extremely efficient with 47.0% FG (39th in nation) on 38.8% threes (31st in NCAA) and a miniscule 8.9 turnovers per game (3rd in nation). The Cavaliers are also an outstanding rebounding team with a +10.3 RPG margin (3rd in NCAA), and not allowing many offensive rebounds helps them hold opponents to a nation-low 50.1 PPG on 35.0% FG (2nd in nation) and 30.1% threes (36th in NCAA). And while Virginia doesn't go after many steals (98, 320th in nation), the team commits only 14.5 fouls per game (8th-fewest in NCAA). All three of the Cavaliers' double-digit scorers shoot high percentages from the field. SG Justin Anderson (13.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG) shoots 49% from the floor, 49% from three-point range and 82% FT, but has gone cold in the past four games with 9.5 PPG on 30% FG (10-of-33) and 24% threes (4-of-17). However, Anderson is a very heady player with two fouls or less in all but one game this season, and has committed only one turnover in the past five games combined. In last season's win over UNC, Anderson scored 13 points in 21 minutes. SG Malcolm Brogdon (13.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.7 APG) also shoots well from all areas of the floor at 46% FG, 38% threes and 85% FT. He has scored at least 13 points in 15 games this season and is heating up with 14.8 PPG on 52% FG (10-of-20 threes) in his past five games. He posted a well-rounded stat line of 16 points, six rebounds and three steals in last season's victory over the Tar Heels. PF Anthony Gill (10.9 PPG, 6.5 RPG) is the team's best post scorer who shoots 56% from the floor. Gill has three double-doubles this season and nearly had a double-double (8 points, 8 rebounds) in just 20 minutes versus UNC last season. The glue to this offense is sophomore PG London Perrantes (5.2 PPG, 4.5 APG) whose 3.15 Ast/TO ratio ranks second in the ACC. The Cavaliers love giving him the ball at the end of games, as he shoots 89% FT, including 21-of-22 FT in his past 16 games. Last season versus the Heels, Perrantes had eight points, nine assists and only one turnover. If he can help control the pace of the game again on Monday, Virginia will be tough to beat.

North Carolina's offense is explosive with 79.5 PPG (16th in nation) on 46.6% FG (48th in NCAA) and 17.4 APG (5th in nation). Although this team doesn't shoot very well from behind the arc (33.0% threes, 218th in NCAA), it is very tough inside and leads the ACC in made free throws. The Tar Heels are also relentless on the offensive glass (15.5 offensive RPG, 5th in nation), which helps them carry a robust +9.6 RPG margin (also 5th in NCAA). The fast-paced offense opens itself up to mistakes (13.1 turnovers per game, 201st in nation), but UNC still boasts a stellar 1.33 Ast/TO ratio (30th in NCAA). PG Marcus Paige (14.2 PPG, 4.2 APG, 1.4 SPG) is still not 100 percent recovered from his plantar fasciitis injury, but he has played very well in his past six games with 16.5 PPG (18-of-36 threes, 21-of-22 FT), 5.8 APG and 2.3 SPG. He is the team's only real threat behind the arc (39% threes), as he accounts for more than half (55) of his team's made threes (105). Paige shot poorly (4-of-14 FG) in last season's loss in Charlottesville. Paige will try his best to continue feeding his two talented big men, C Brice Johnson (11.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.0 BPG) and PF Kennedy Meeks (12.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.3 BPG). Johnson has done a great job of crashing the boards with double-digit rebounds in five of his past seven games. He scored only two points before fouling out of Saturday's game, but will be happy to return home where he's posted four straight double-doubles (14.5 PPG, 11.8 RPG). While Johnson was rather quiet against Virginia last season (5 points, 6 rebounds), Meeks kept his team in the game with 15 points (7-of-10 FG) and nine rebounds (4 offensive) in just 21 minutes. Meeks has seven double-doubles this season and his 58% FG clip ranks fourth in the ACC. But Meeks has only seven offensive boards in the past six games, which is a far cry from his 22 offensive rebounds in his previous six contests. An unsung hero of this team is versatile SF J.P. Tokoto (9.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.3 SPG), who has scored at least 10 points on 10 different occasions this season. He also has at least three assists in 17 games, including seven in a row where he's dished out 4.1 APG. Freshman SG Justin Jackson (10.0 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.5 APG) is a dreadful 10-of-49 (20%) from three-point range this season, and has nearly as many three-point attempts (49) as free-throw attempts (55). But Jackson has been more aggressive in his past five games with 21 FTA and only 13 attempted threes, leading to averages of 12.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG and 2.6 APG in this timeframe.


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