Matthew Knight Arena - Eugene, OR
Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Oregon -5

Pacific Northwest rivals clash when short-handed Washington invades Eugene to face an Oregon team looking for revenge.

These two squads met just five conference games ago (Jan. 18), in Seattle, with Washington erasing a first-half deficit on the strength of a 53-point second half on 65% FG (their best offensive output of the season for any half) to defeat the Ducks, 85-77. The Huskies were powered by their impressive backcourt, G Nigel Williams-Goss and G Andrew Andrews, which combined for 41 points (15-for-33 FG), and an unexpected contribution from freshman F Donaven Dorsey who scored 13 points in 18 minutes. Most importantly, they had the nation’s leading shot-blocker, seven-foot C Robert Upshaw (10.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 4.5 BPG) in the fold, contributing 13-12-5 in the win. Upshaw will not be available on Wednesday (or anytime in the future for the Huskies) as he’s been dismissed from the team as of Jan. 26. Oregon, boasting the Pac-12’s best scoring offense (76.4 PPG, 24th NCAA), should be feasting on the thought of playing the Huskies sans Upshaw, as Washington is 0-2 since losing their rim protector extraordinaire while allowing season highs of 84 and 90 points in the process (Stanford, Cal). Their most recent loss (at home vs Cal) was the result of a three from seldom-used Bears guard, Sam Singer, with five seconds left. Oregon is coming off a thrilling 68-67 overtime road win (and cover) over Arizona State last Friday, overcoming a buzzer-beating three by the Sun Devils to tie and force overtime. Oregon is 5-0 at home SU since 2011 versus Washington (2-3 ATS), and is 13-2 SU (7-7 ATS) this season at Matthew Knight Arena. Washington is, oddly enough, remarkably consistent with identical SU and ATS records in conference this season (3-6). As mentioned earlier, they’re 0-2 without Upshaw in the lineup while hitting the OVER in both of those contests.

Can the Huskies win a big conference game in Oregon on Wednesday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 58% ATS mark (88-63-3) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is a stellar 67% ATS (20-10) during this timeframe to improve to 63% ATS (38-22) for the season. StatFox Zach is on a 65% ATS (15-8) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 57% ATS mark (35-26) this season, while StatFox Brian is 62% ATS (16-10-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 55% ATS (33-27-1) this season. StatFox Scott is a stellar 66% ATS (19-10-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 23.

There’s no getting around it: This is an entirely different Washington Huskies team without Upshaw, who went from one of the best stories in college basketball to one of the saddest all in one fell swoop. Washington’s season stats – especially on defense (38.3% FG, 23rd NCAA; 6.3 BPG, 7th NCAA) can be proverbially thrown out the window. Granted, there’s a small sample size of data without Upshaw; the Huskies don’t have another seven-footer walking through the door as a replacement. Currently Washington is 6th in the nation in two-point FG% defense (40.4%). In their last three games (two without Upshaw) the Huskies are at 55.8% (314th NCAA) in that same measure. To compensate for this, a team that had a defense-first identity, especially in terms of pace (under 60 poss/gm average in three conference wins and 69.5 poss/gm in six conference losses) is now forced to play faster on offense with a four-guard lineup featuring Williams-Goss (15.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 6.1 APG), Andrews (12.8 PPG, 1.2 SPG, 1.7 threes/gm), G Mike Anderson (8.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.1 APG) and sixth man G Darin Johnson (3.7 PPG; 9 PPG, 26 mpg since Upshaw’s dismissal). The aforementioned Dorsey, who had a career game in his first meeting with the Ducks, will hope to repeat that performance as he’s been invisible when his squad needs him most (four points in his last two games). F Shawn Kemp Jr. (9.9 PPG, 3.7 RPG) must also start playing like his namesake, as the only member of the starting five over 6-foot-4 who sees 20+ minutes per game. Kemp has a Bargnani-esque aversion to rebounding the ball. He’s never collected double-digit rebounds in a game in his career, and has been below five boards in seven of his nine conference games. One bench player who has stepped up to fill some of Upshaw’s void is six-foot-five junior G Quevyn Winters (13 points in 13 minutes versus Stanford; five points and four steals in 25 minutes versus Cal). If Washington is going to pull the upset, though, it’s going to be on the back of sophomore sensation, Williams-Goss, who’s played 40 minutes in each of the last two games (with averages of 24.5 PPG, 6 RPG and 6.5 APG on 64.5% FG).

Oregon is king of the thriller, with four overtime games this season (including their most recent victory over Arizona State). As referenced, they like to score and they do it by sharing the ball and hoisting threes with the fastest tempo in the league (1st in Pac 12 in assists and three’s attempted; 71.1 poss/gm, 24th NCAA). The Ducks don’t think much of defense (71.1 PPG allowed, 11th Pac 12, 294th NCAA) but are markedly better on that side of the ball at home (66.5 PPG allowed in 15 home games). Oregon is led by G Joseph Young (18.7 PPG, 3.6 APG, 2.3 threes/gm, 93% FT – tie 3rd NCAA), who never met a shot he didn’t like (15.1 FGA – 1st Pac 12). Young has scuffled a bit in conference play – only one game with 20+ points in his last 8, but F Elgin Cook (12.6 PPG) has stepped up to average just under 15 points in conference play on 54% FG. Even though Upshaw won’t be on the court, this game still features the Pac 12’s best shot blocker – only he’s F Jordan Bell (5.8 PPG, 7 RPG, 3.2 BPG – 6th NCAA) from the Ducks. The 6-foot-9 freshman has been a revelation for the Ducks, blocking at least one shot in every game this season, while putting himself on the radar for NBA scouts with his athleticism and potential. Rounding out the Ducks rotation is a stable of players that coach Dana Altman can rely on for production as F Dillon Brooks (12.6 PPG), G Jalil Abdul-Bassit (8 PPG, 1.6 threes/gm), F Dwayne Benjamin (7.3 PPG) and G Ahmaad Rorie (5.9 PPG, 2.4 APG) all average more than 18 minutes per game.