Crisler Center – Ann Arbor, MI
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: N/A

Two Big Ten teams that started off the season with so much promise (both preseason top-25) look for a win with Michigan hosting Iowa Thursday.

This long-standing, Big Ten rivalry features one team that seems to be finding its identity -- oddly enough after losing arguably their two best players (Michigan) versus a team that’s completely lost their identity (Iowa). Due to injuries to arguably their two best players, G Caris LeVert and G Derrick Walton, Michigan has banded together to play some of their best basketball of late. They’re 3-2 SU in their past five and only overtime losses (at home to No.5 Wisconsin, and at Michigan State on Sunday) in which the Wolverines have easily covered have kept them from being a surprising 4-0 without LeVert. Michigan – at full strength – went 2-7-1 ATS in November and December. Flip the calendar and Michigan, with mix-and-match lineups, has gone 6-3 ATS (7-3 ATS in conference; Dec 30 vs Illinois). Iowa, on the other hand, is simply an absolute mess right now, dropping (and not covering) their last three contests – two of them at the hands of Wisconsin. At least the Hawkeyes have consistency going for them in conference play: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS; all wins are covers. They actually have not covered when dealt with a SU loss once all season, and only failed to cover in two of their 12 Division 1 wins. Michigan is 4-1 SU (4-1 ATS) at home in conference, while Iowa is 2-2 SU (2-2 ATS) on the road in conference, as their SU results usually yield the same ATS result. Iowa hasn’t covered once this season with a SU loss. Michigan is 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in their past five home contests versus Iowa dating back to 2010. As mentioned earlier, Michigan will be without leading scorer Caris LeVert (14.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.7 APG) as they have been for the past four games, as he’s out for the season (foot). Derrick Walton (10.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.0 APG) has missed the last three contests for the Wolverines with an ankle injury and is out indefinitely.

Can the Hawkeyes turn things around with a home victory over the Wolverines on Thursday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 56% ATS mark (88-68-3) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is a stellar 67% ATS (20-10) during this timeframe to improve to 63% ATS (38-22) for the season. StatFox Zach is on a 63% ATS (15-9) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 56% ATS mark (35-27) this season, while StatFox Brian is 59% ATS (16-11-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 54% ATS (33-28-1) this season. StatFox Scott is a strong 61% ATS (19-12-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 23.

In early December, things were looking up for the Iowa Hawkeyes. They’d just went on the road to Chapel Hill and stunned then No. 12 North Carolina in the ACC-Big Ten challenge. Their best asset, piling up points from the line (24.4 FTDist%, 22nd NCAA; 74.1 FT%, 24th NCAA) was in full display as F’s Aaron White (15 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 52% FG, 80% FT) and Jarrod Uthoff (11.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG) had typical White and Uthoff games (White went 0-6 from the field but 10-10 from the line, getting all of North Carolina’s big men in foul trouble. Uthoff went 2-13 from the field, but grabbed 11 rebounds and blocked 5 shots). After what seemed to be a demoralizing home loss to in-state rival Iowa State, Iowa got off the mat again and rose to the occasion, beating then No. 20 Ohio State on the road. It’s fair to ask, though, after three straight conference losses (two to Wisconsin by a combined 33 points) can the Hawkeyes get off the mat again one last time, or is postseason play in jeopardy? In White, Uthoff, Gabriel Olaseni (8.6 PPG, 1.8 BPG) and Adam Woodbury (6.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG), the Hawkeyes have a pair of versatile 6-foot-9 forwards, one 6-foot-10 sixth man, and a 7-foot-1 center, respectfully. This could be a blessing and a curse versus the smaller Michigan, as John Beilein’s patient, guard oriented offense featuring back-cuts and perimeter shooting can be a nightmare for bigger teams to match up with. However, being #2 in the Big Ten in rebounding – first in the conference on the offensive glass (37.5 RPG, 48th NCAA; 13 ORPG, 33rd NCAA) versus Michigan’s Big Ten-worst 31.8 RPG average could be an area to exploit. Michigan State grabbed 13 offensive boards on their way to a +14 rebounding margin in their OT win over the Wolverines on Sunday, and you can be sure that Coach Fran McCaffery is analyzing that tape and licking his chops. As good as they are at crashing the glass, Iowa is not going to beat Michigan from deep (31.8% threes, 262nd NCAA). Iowa boasts just one player (Uthoff) who hits more than one three per game, and he’s been a bit trigger-shy lately (just 8.5 PPG in his last four games). Iowa also doesn’t get much production out of its backcourt (G Mike Gesell, Peter Jok, Anthony Clemmons and Josh Oglesby barely combine to score more PPG than Big Ten scoring leader, D.J. Newbill from Penn State).

Speaking of early December victories, the then-top-25 Michigan Wolverines wouldn’t know where to begin. You’ll remember that Wolverine team which featured future NBA first-round draft pick, G Caris LeVert and up-and-coming sophomore G Derrick Walton. That John Beilein-led squad managed to drop home tilts to NJIT (Dec. 3) and Eastern Michigan four days later. Fast forward to Big Ten conference play, where no pundit expected a team decimated by injuries, relying on G Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (3.1 PPG, 3 DNP-CD, non-conference season high minutes – 12 versus Nicholls State) to compete with the likes of Wisconsin and Michigan State. Compete they did, taking the Badgers and Spartans to overtime while beating Rutgers and Nebraska (Abdur-Rahkman being the star on Sunday versus the Spartans with 18 points). Toss out everything we think or assume to know about the Wolverines at this point besides the style. That style, authored by master tactician, Coach John Beilein, stays constant. Michigan is going to be methodical (63.2 poss/gm, 310th NCAA), mistake-free (10 TO/G, 341st NCAA; 14.5 Fouls/game, 343rd NCAA) and work from the outside-in: First looking for open threes, and then catching the overplaying defense with back-cuts for layups. It doesn’t matter if it’s Burke, Stauskas, Hardaway Jr., LeVert or Albrecht, Dawkins, Abdur-Rahkman, Irvin; if Beilein is running the show, it’s going to be effective (36.9% from three, 18th NCAA; 8.0 threes-per-game, 41st NCAA). The fact that Michigan doesn’t beat its self with foul trouble is going to loom large in a matchup versus an Iowa team that depends on free throw production for sustained offense. Given what’s left in the cupboard for Michigan’s roster, it’s fair to ask: Who’s doing the damage for this team? If Walton is somehow healthy enough to play, he’d be the number one offensive option (12 and 17 points in games that LeVert missed). Given his “indefinite” absence, Zak Irvin (13.5 PPG, 2.4 threes-per-game) would seem to be the most logical option as lead dog. That said, Irvin has been solid but unspectacular in a starring role in a four-game sample; he’s scored double-figures in each game, but is struggling with efficiency as a marked man (18-50 FG over that span). G Spike Albrecht has done a fantastic job filling in for Walton as a starter (seven assists versus Nebraska, 16 points versus Michigan State). The aforementioned Abdur-Rahkman (12 PPG in his last 3 games) and Aubrey Dawkins (8.7 PPG in last 3 games) have been revelations in expanded roles (both averaged single-digit minutes per game in non-conference play) as they’ve proven capable offensive options in the 30+ minutes per game they are forced to play. Steady F Max Bielfeldt, also not one of the headliners in the preseason team preview pages when reading up on the Wolverines, has almost doubled his non-conference averages over the past four games (9.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG). He shares time, often as the lone big man on the floor, in a rotation with fellow F Ricky Doyle (6.2 PPG) who’s seen Bielfeldt take the lion’s share of minutes at that position lately.