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No. 4 Duke faces FSU Monday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 2/9/2015  at  12:21:00 PM
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DUKE BLUE DEVILS (20-3)

at FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (13-11)

Donald L. Tucker Center – Tallahassee, FL
Tip-off: Monday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Duke -10.5

No. 4 Duke looks to remain hot when it visits a surging Florida State team on Monday night.

The Blue Devils won their third straight game on Saturday in impressive fashion, destroying No. 10 Notre Dame 90-60 in a game they shot 61% FG and 60% threes (9-15). The Seminoles won their third game in four tries when they prevailed 73-65 at Virginia Tech on Saturday when they shot 54% FG and held the Hokies to 40% FG. Although Duke is 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) in true road games this season, the club has a slim +4.0 PPG margin in those contests. Florida State is 10-4 SU (6-5 ATS) at home this season and also carries a narrow +5.5 PPG margin in Tallahassee. This series has been very close since the 2011 calendar year with the teams splitting six meetings both SU and ATS, but the Blue Devils have destroyed the 'Noles in the past two meetings by scores of 79-60 at FSU and 78-56 at Duke on Jan. 25, 2014. In that most recent meeting, the Blue Devils owned the boards with a 47-24 rebounding advantage (27-7 on offensive rebounds), and were 34-of-43 FT compared to just 10-of-18 FT for the Seminoles. Both teams have positive betting trends for Monday night, as Duke is 79-51 ATS (61%) coming off a home win where it scored 85+ points since 1997, while Florida State is 28-14 ATS (67%) in this same timeframe versus teams with a 12+ PPG margin after 15+ games. Neither school has any significant injuries for this contest.

Can Duke cover the hefty spread on the road on Monday night? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 56% ATS mark (95-76-3) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is a strong 63% ATS (22-13) during this timeframe to improve to 62% ATS (40-25) for the season. StatFox Zach is on a 63% ATS (17-10) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 57% ATS mark (37-28) this season, while StatFox Brian is 60% ATS (18-12-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 54% ATS (35-29-1) this season. StatFox Scott is a strong 59% ATS (20-14-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 23.

Duke remains one of the best offensive teams in the nation with 80.6 PPG (8th in NCAA) on 50.0% FG (6th in nation) and 37.9% threes (46th in NCAA). The team also carries a stellar 1.39 Ast/TO ratio (17th in nation), as it commits a mere 11.0 turnovers per game (33rd in NCAA). The Blue Devils are also a great rebounding squad with a +7.2 RPG margin (18th in nation), and play sound defense by limiting opponents to 64.4 PPG on 42.7% FG and 31.3% threes. Freshman C Jahlil Okafor (18.2 PPG, 66% FG, 9.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) continues to be one of the best big men in the country. He has scored at least 10 points in all 23 games this season, including nine occurrences of 20+ points. Okafor has also pulled down 7+ rebounds in 14 of his past 15 games (10.3 RPG), and has committed three or fewer fouls in these 15 contests. Another freshman that has been playing outstanding basketball is SF Justise Winslow (11.4 PPG, 37% threes, 5.3 RPG), who recorded his third straight double-double on Saturday, giving him 16.3 PPG (55% FG) and 10.7 RPG during this streak. The third fantastic freshman for Duke is PG Tyus Jones (11.1 PPG, 39% threes, 87% FT, 5.0 APG, 3.3 RPG), who has scored at least nine points in seven straight contests (15.1 PPG on 48% FG). Jones carries a terrific 2.9 Ast/TO ratio this season, which is also 2.9 on the road (32 assists, 11 turnovers). Another Jones, sophomore SG Matt Jones (5.7 PPG, 38% threes), is also on a tear with 14.0 PPG (56% FG, 44% threes) in his past two games, which includes a career-high 17 points on Saturday. The senior leader of the club is SG Quinn Cook (14.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.8 APG), who shoots a team-high 39% threes and 92% FT (46-for-50). Cook has been a true workhorse for the Blue Devils with 34+ minutes in 15 straight games where he's averaged 36.9 MPG.

Florida State has an average offense that scores a pedestrian 68.5 PPG (149th in NCAA) despite a strong 46.4% FG (56th in nation). Although the club shoots horribly from three-point range (28.9%, 329th in NCAA) and is a subpar foul shooting team (66.6% FT, 259th in nation), it does a nice job of getting to the line with 578 free-throw attempts (16th in NCAA). This team is adequate on the boards with a +2.0 RPG margin (124th in nation), but turns the ball over too much (14.0 TOPG, 278th in NCAA). Defensively, the Seminoles post 4.8 blocks per game (44th in nation), which helps limit opponents to 67.8 PPG (214th in NCAA) on 41.6% FG (122nd in nation) and 33.5% threes. PG Xavier Rathan-Mayes (13.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.8 APG) is the main scorer for FSU, but shoots a woeful 24% threes (27-of-114) and turns the ball over 3.5 times per game. However, he has still produced 15.7 PPG, 4.5 APG and 4.0 RPG in ACC play this season. SF Montay Brandon (12.8 PPG, 56% FG, 5.4 RPG) has been on fire in the past three games with 13.3 PPG on 70% FG (16-of-23) and 5.3 RPG, which was quite an improvement from his previous three games (7.7 PPG, 27% FG, 3.7 RPG). Brandon also played well at Duke last season with 11 points (4-of-5 FG) and four rebounds. SG Devon Bookert (10.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.4 APG) is an excellent shooter who makes 41% threes and 89% FT this season. He has scored in double-figures in 10 of his past 12 games, but needs to stay out of foul trouble, as he has committed 13 fouls in the past four contests. PF Phil Cofer (7.1 PPG, 48% FG, 4.8 RPG) has really struggled in February with a mere 2.7 PPG on 3-of-12 FG, and he will have his hands full with Okafor on the inside. Seven-foot-3 C Boris Bojanovsky (5.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG in 15.9 MPG) will also help out defending the paint, and has been effective in limited playing time in ACC action, shooting 60% FG and averaging 4.1 RPG and 1.9 BPG in just 17.6 MPG against conference foes.


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