Crisler Arena – Ann Arbor, MI
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan State -4.5

Michigan State looks to sweep the season series and pile on a fifth straight loss for their in-state rivals, Michigan.

Michigan State is looking to take out a second straight “football” rival, after knocking off Ohio State 59-56 on Saturday – with G Denzel Valentine (14.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.0 APG) providing the game-winning three point dagger to cover (line was -2.5) and prevent overtime. The Wolverines, though at home, are ripe for the taking, after losing their fourth in a row (2-2 ATS) in Champaign last Thursday, 64-52, in eerily similar fashion to their loss in the Breslin Center to the Spartans. They’ve had a long weekend to prepare, but 3+ days rest between games doesn’t do much for Michigan (6-8 SU, 5-7 ATS). Michigan State has played twice this season on just one day’s rest and is 1-1 (1-1 ATS) with the lone loss being in November to Kansas. Fittingly enough, Michigan’s slide started after dropping a heartbreaker in overtime in East Lansing, 76-66. Michigan held a 61-57 lead in that Feb. 1 contest, scorching the nets for 37 points in the first 15 minutes of the second half. The Spartans clamped down and took the lead going into the final minute – not allowing Michigan to score a point in that span - before the Wolverines rallied back with five points to send the game to OT. With momentum seemingly on their side, Michigan proceeded to go scoreless in the extra period (0-5 FG) and has had trouble scoring ever since (57.7 PPG, last 3 games). Michigan is 8-12 SU (11-9 ATS) in the past 20 meetings with Michigan State. Michigan has also won the last four contests at Crisler against the Spartans since 2011, covering three out of those four occasions.

Can Michigan win a big home game against Michigan State Tuesday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 57% ATS mark (112-85-3) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is a strong 63% ATS (25-15) during this timeframe to improve to 61% ATS (43-27) for the season. StatFox Brian is 63% ATS (22-13-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 57% ATS (39-30-1) this season, while StatFox Zach is on a 59% ATS (19-13) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 56% ATS mark (39-31) this season. StatFox Scott is a strong 59% ATS (23-16-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 23, and StatFox Dave is 5-1 ATS since Feb. 6.

Michigan State (8-4 in Big Ten play) has thrived in conference, mainly due to its success on the boards (39 RPG in conf. play, 1st Big Ten, 18th NCAA); a strength that will be exacerbated against Michigan’s league-worst rebounding (30.9 RPG, 14th Big Ten, 318th NCAA). Since dropping the opening conference game to Maryland on Dec. 30, Michigan State has outrebounded every opponent on the schedule (11 games in a row), including a +14 rebounding margin when they faced the Wolverines earlier this month. Considering the slow pace that Michigan plays (62.6 poss/game, 318th NCAA) every extra possession or odd-man transition opportunity you can create against the Wolverines is critical. The Spartans happen to excel at pushing the ball and getting a shot on the rim quickly after a defensive rebound (18.3% of initial FGA between 0-10 seconds after DReb; 6th NCAA); even on a miss, they’re well positioned for second-shot opportunities against a defense that isn’t set. Using that same stat sorted for defense, Michigan is second-worst in the country (16.9% FGA between 0-10s after DReb.) Teams shoot 59.6% eFG in those first 10 seconds after a miss, versus 22.1% eFG in the last 25 seconds of the shot clock when playing Michigan. Coach Tom Izzo’s locker room whiteboard probably reads as such: 1) Rebound, 2) Push the pace. With All Big-Ten talent like F Branden Dawson (11.9 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 1.4 BPG), who had a season-high five blocks against the Buckeyes on Saturday, and the all-around talent of Valentine, Izzo would seemingly be able to do both with ease versus the undermanned Wolverines. The struggles of senior captain, G Travis Trice (13.4 PPG, 5.4 APG) lately have led to Izzo bringing him off the bench in the past three contests. On Saturday versus Ohio State, it was freshman G Lourawls Nairn Jr. (2.3 PPG) stepping up to the starting lineup with seven points (3-3 FG), five rebounds and four assists in a career-high 36 minutes.

Without guards Caris LeVert (14.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.7 APG) and Derrick Walton Jr. (10.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.0 APG) the Wolverines’ offense has looked predictably putrid, especially as of late, as they’re 1-4 without LeVert and Walton Jr. The Illinois loss, yet another overtime defeat where the Wolverines were dominated in the extra period (14-2), highlights the fact that Michigan Coach John Beilein just doesn’t have enough of a roster to work with at this point, with role players like G Spike Albrecht (6.2 PPG, 3.6 APG), G Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rakhman (3.5 PPG), playing 40+ minutes (42 and 43 respectfully). Former top-100 recruit G Zak Irvin (13.4 PPG, 2.4 threes/game) is still struggling as a marked man on offense (12.6 PPG in 5 games w/o Irvin, Walton Jr.), as while he exploded versus the Big Ten’s worst defense (Indiana) he’s shooting just 33% FG (16-48) versus Michigan’s other four opponents in that span. The most startling statistic is Michigan’s offensive woes in the first half of games (23.8 first-half PPG over last 7 games). With their shortened rotation, the first half is when the Wolverines have to take advantage of supposedly fresh legs, but instead haven’t broken 25 points in the opening half in but one game (again, Indiana) in their past seven. Almost as troubling, Michigan’s lack of success with their main weapon – the three-ball: Again, excluding the loss to Indiana, Michigan is shooting 28% 3PT (17-61) in their last three losses to competent defensive squads (Michigan State, Iowa, Illinois).