Carver-Hawkeye Arena – Iowa City, Iowa
Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: N/A

NCAA hopefuls Iowa and Illinois clash in a must-win conference game for two teams on the tournament bubble.

Iowa and Illinois meet for the only time this season with Iowa looking to pick up its third win in a row while Illinois has struggled to re-acclimate leading scorer, G Rayvonte Rice (15.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG) in dropping their last two games. The Hawkeyes have been a team of small streaks, the only thing consistent about them being their inconsistency. Their last two wins, on the surface (Wednesday versus Rutgers, Sunday at Nebraska) may not seem impressive, however, the margins of victory – 34 and 28 points respectively – are eye-openers. The 28-point win at Nebraska Sunday was, by far, Nebraska’s most lopsided defeat at home. Notoriously hard to score on in Lincoln, Iowa went 50-50-84 (FG%, 3PT%, FT%) in embarrassing the Cornhuskers. That Iowa Hawkeyes team, whenever it shows its face, is trouble for even the upper-crust of the conference. Illinois, seemingly clicking without senior leader, Rice (6-3 SU and a three game win streak before he returned) has had their offense take major steps back in his three games returning (squeaking out a 64-52 overtime win over Michigan, scoring 49 and 53 points, respectively in losses to Wisconsin and Michigan State). Dropping this contest to Iowa would require some major Big Ten tournament exploits for Illinois to make the NCAA’s. Iowa has one trend going for them in conference play: When they win, they cover; when they lose, they don’t (8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS). They’re mediocre at home in conference (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) owning an impressive win versus No. 14 Maryland, but following that up with a disappointing loss versus Minnesota. Illinois has found some consistency in its last five with wins and covers as well (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) and are just as consistent across both categories on the road in conference play (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS). Historically, Illinois has enjoyed success recently (4-2 SU) when playing at Iowa in the past six games (since Mar. 2008). The total in this series in Iowa City has also gone Under seven of the last eight times. There are no new injuries, but Illinois G Aaron Cosby (7.8 PPG) who was suspended indefinitely has now officially left the team.

Can Iowa earn a huge home victory over Illinois Wednesday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Dec. 23, combining for a 57% ATS mark (129-98-3) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is a strong 60% ATS (28-19) during this timeframe to improve to 60% ATS (46-31) for the season. StatFox Brian is 65% ATS (26-14-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 28 to put him at 58% ATS (43-31-1) this season, while StatFox Zach is on a 58% ATS (22-16) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 55% ATS mark (42-34) this season. StatFox Scott is a lofty 60% ATS (27-18-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 23, and StatFox Dave is 67% ATS (8-4) since Feb. 6.

One of the best examples of how important ever-intangible “team chemistry” is is the age-old example of “team plays great in absence of best player; team falters upon best player’s return”. Unfortunately, Illinois is right in the thick of that quandary at the worst possible time, as they’ve played disjointed and uninspiring basketball upon the return of Rayvonte Rice. While Rice has done his fair share to contribute (9.7 PPG, 29% FG, 31 MPG) in the three games he’s been back for, he’s not alone. F Malcolm Hill (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.1 APG, 45% FG) had averaged 17 points per game in Rice’s absence. Nobody’s mistaking Hill for Magic Johnson, but he’d passed out 1.3 assists per game in that span. In three games since Rice’s return, Hill hasn’t dished out one assist. G Kendrick Nunn (11.5 PPG, 1.7 threes/game on 40% 3PT) had flourished to average 16.6 points per game in Rice’s absence, while upping his assists (4.1/game) and nailing 2.6 threes per game at a 43% clip. In the last three games, though, Nunn has dropped back down to 11.7 points per game on 31% from the field, and has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1:1. That turnovers are a recent issue is a surprise, because as a team, Illinois usually is very good at protecting the basketball (9.7 TO/game, 13th in NCAA; +3.4 TO margin). C Nnanna Egwu (6.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG) as he’s been able to stay on the floor (which is always the biggest asset to Head Coach John Groce) and blocked seven shots in his last three. Egwu will be sorely needed against Iowa, as the Hawkeyes boast one of the taller frontcourts in the nation and are one of the best rebounding teams in the conference.

The formula for victory in conference play has been very simple for Iowa: Win the rebounding battle and win the game (all eight conference wins have been with Iowa winning on the boards). Now, the Hawkeyes are inconsistent enough with the rest of their play to dominate on the boards and lose (see at Purdue, where Iowa shot 32% FG). Leading the charge lately has been senior leader, F Aaron White (14.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 51% FG), who’s really been hitting the glass in his last five games (9.6 RPG). White has two of his three double-doubles on the season in his past three games, with his 18-point, 11-rebound performance in the drubbing of Nebraska being arguably his best performance of the season. White’s wingman, F Jarrod Uthoff (12.2 PPG, 6.0 RPG) has also raised his play in the last four games. A lanky sharpshooter with a high basketball IQ, Uthoff has produced all over the stat sheet lately (16.8 PPG, 2 BPG, 1.5 SPG, 49% FG, 47% 3PT 2.3 threes/game). Uthoff’s threes are very important because Iowa doesn’t really make it’s mark from out there (33% 3PT, 237th in NCAA). Every bit of space that Iowa can get to free up White and their other big men, C Adam Woodbury (7.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and F Gabriel Olaseni (8.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.6 BPG – in 18 MPG) is gravy to Iowa’s offense. Given the need for perimeter production, the emergence of G Peter Jok (7.4 PPG, 37% 3PT) might be what’s boosted Iowa’s play the most recently. Jok has hit double figures in five of the Hawkeye’s past six contests (11.7 PPG) and has poured in 12 threes over that span. Iowa consistently dominates on the boards (37.2 RPG, 2nd Big Ten, +3.9 margin) and all their frontcourt players (at 6’9” or taller) are bigger than Illinois’ biggest player (Egwu) so expect this trend to continue.