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No. 4 Duke hosts Syracuse Saturday
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 2/27/2015  at  12:06:00 PM
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SYRACUSE ORANGE (18-10)

at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (25-3)

Cameron Indoor Stadium - Durham, NC
Tip-off: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: N/A

Syracuse storms into Durham to take on No. 4 Duke, looking to take out its second top-10 opponent in a row.

Only in year two of this newly christened ACC rivalry, and due to the self-imposed postseason ban for the Syracuse Orange, this game may have a different feel to it than the one where Orange Coach Jim Boeheim was rendered jacketless in 2014. Postseason or not, Syracuse has gone 3-3 SU (3-3 ATS) since announcing its punishment on Feb. 4th, but they’ve come to play in their biggest games, with wins over then No. 12 Louisville, and a win on Tuesday at No. 9 Notre Dame. No. 4 Duke is fresh off a shockingly close overtime victory at ACC bottom-feeder, Virginia Tech (91-86) on Wednesday (a game they were favored to win by 16). Duke does, however, stretch their win streak to 8 games with the win. They also welcomed back stalwart freshman C Jahlil Okafor (18.4 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 67% FG) from a 1-game absence due to an ankle injury. Okafor responded with a monster outing in Blacksburg on Wednesday, going for a career-high 30 points. During Duke’s current eight game win streak, they’re 4-4 ATS. The Blue Devils are 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS) at home in conference this season. The total has gone OVER in each of Duke’s last four games. Syracuse is 4-3 SU (2-4-1 ATS) on the road in conference this season, and the total has gone UNder in four of Syracuse’s past six road games. Historically, Duke is 2-1 SU (2-0-1 ATS) versus the Orange since Syracuse joined the ACC last season. Syracuse’s lone win was the inaugural ACC meeting between these two that resulted in a thrilling 91-89 win in the Carrier Dome. Duke won the most recent meeting, 80-72 (barely covering the 7.5-point spread) just two Saturdays ago in Syracuse, as Okafor led the way with 23 points and 13 rebounds. The three results in this series to date have all come within two points of the spread at tip time.

Will Duke avoid an upset with a home victory over Syracuse on Saturday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Feb. 6, combining for a 63% ATS mark (47-28) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is a strong 60% ATS (29-19) since Dec. 23 to improve to 60% ATS (47-31) for the season. StatFox Brian is a robust 80% ATS (12-3) in Best Bets since Feb. 6 to put him at 58% ATS (45-32-1) this season, while StatFox Zach is on a 59% ATS (23-16) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 56% ATS mark (43-34) this season. StatFox Scott is a lofty 58% ATS (28-20-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 23, and StatFox Dave is a whopping 67% ATS (10-5) since Feb. 6.

With no postseason play to aim for, every ranked opponent has become the Syracuse Orange’s “Super Bowl”, so to speak. For senior four-year starter, C Rakeem Christmas (18.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 2.5 BPG) this is especially true. Enjoying a spectacular year, having quadrupled his career scoring average in the previous three years, Christmas is arguably the most improved player in the country. While Christmas is shooting 57% from the field this season, he struggled mightily at home versus Duke earlier this month to just 5-for-17 from the field and 11 points. Given that Syracuse plays zone, and Duke has started to play more zone in conference play as well, you won’t see as much of “Christmas versus Okafor” as you’d think, but given that he fouled out in only 28 minutes against Notre Dame on Tuesday, Christmas will have to be diligent on defense to avoid being torpedoed with fouls in one of the harshest settings for visiting players in all of sports, Cameron Indoor Stadium. Syracuse G Michael Gbinije (13 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.8 SPG) is also enjoying a career season. He’ll make his second appearance visiting the campus that got his letter-of-intent, as Gbinije is a Duke transfer. Now given 35 minutes per game to spread his wings, Gbinije scored a career-high 27 points (five threes) at home in the loss to Duke earlier this month. Gbinije has been a dynamo in the past eight games, filling up the box score regularly while leading the Orange in scoring (18.4 PPG, 4.6 APG, 2.6 SPG, 54% FG, 48% 3PT). The Orange, who only regularly play six men, will also need junior sharpshooting G Trevor Cooney (13.5 PPG, 1.9 SPG, 2.4 threes/game) to find his touch, as he’s hit an awful 11-game stretch (32% FG, 23% 3PT – 20-for-89) that can be partially attributed to a sore back (according to Coach Boeheim). The vaunted 2-3 zone has been very effective as of late, as only Duke has broken 65 points versus the Orange in their past four games. The Orange held both Louisville and Notre Dame, their last two top-25 wins, to .96 and .87 points per possession, respectively. However, they didn’t have such luck against Duke (1.16 points per possession; 47% FG, 7-15 from three).

The Blue Devils will have to perform better than their escape act in Blacksburg on Wednesday if they are to defeat a hungry Syracuse team. They match up well versus the Orange, though. Even with their shortened rotation, Duke boasts enough size with Okafor, F Justise Winslow (12 PPG, 5.7 RPG – 15.8 PPG, 8.5 RPG in last four games) and F Amile Jefferson (7.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG) to create a big advantage on the glass versus the smaller Orange. The Blue Devils rank second in conference on the glass (37.4 RPG) during conference play, and outrebounded Syracuse 42-32 in the Carrier Dome earlier this month in their win. Duke’s backcourt of G Tyus Jones (11.5 PPG, 5.7 APG, 88% FT) and G Quinn Cook (15.9 PPG, 47% FG, 41% 3PT – 2.9 threes/game) have also been a terror to contain for defenses lately, as you’d expect for a Blue Devils team that has such an explosive offensive attack (81 PPG, 5th in NCAA). Cook has been especially unconscious lately, averaging 23 points per game in his last four contests while shooting 54% from the field and hitting an absurd 4.3 threes per game on 50% shooting from deep. Cook, a senior, has scored at least 22 points in four of his last five contests while the freshman, Jones, has averaged an eye-popping 8.8 assists per game on those last five contests as well. The issue with Jones and Cook, however, are on the defensive end, as time and time again, they’re allowing career performances to their guard counterparts (Gbinije in Duke’s last meeting with Syracuse; Virginia Tech reserve Jalen Hudson going for 20 on Wednesday, Devon Bookert on Florida State going for a season-high 23 points on Feb. 9). G Matt Jones (5.6 PPG, 19.6 MPG) has seen a boost in production and playing time (7.8 PPG, 26 MPG) as a regular member of the rotation with the departure of G Rasheed Sulaimon. While Jones is far-and-away the last option on offense for the Blue Devils, the sophomore carries with him a reputation as a knock down shooter, which he’s not yet realized in his young career. Still, don’t be surprised to see him playing a key role in stretching Syracuse’s vaunted zone.


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