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Lakers face Heat in Miami Wednesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 3/4/2015  at  12:53:00 PM
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LOS ANGELES LAKERS (16-43)

at MIAMI HEAT (26-33)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: N/A, Total: N/A

The Heat go for their second straight victory when they host the lowly Lakers on Wednesday.

Los Angeles is coming off of a 104-103 loss as a 9-point ’dog in Charlotte on Tuesday. The Lakers have now lost two straight games and seven of their past 10 SU, but they are 4-1 ATS in their past five games. Their defense has let them down the past two games though, allowing 106.0 PPG in those contests. They’ll need to tighten things up against a Miami team that is coming off of a 115-98 win-and-cover at home over Phoenix. These teams last met on Jan. 13, when the Heat won 78-75 as 3-point favorites in Los Angeles. Miami has won five straight games against the Lakers SU and nine of the past 10 as well. The Heat are 7-3 ATS in those contests but have failed to cover in two of the past three games. The Heat have been especially dominant at American Airlines Arena, winning six straight games at home SU and covering in five of those contests. The last time the Lakers won SU in Miami was Feb. 10, 2008. Los Angeles is 18-11 ATS after one or more consecutive Overs this season. The team is, however, 0-7 ATS after a game giving up five or less offensive rebounds over the past three seasons. Miami, meanwhile, is 52-37 after a non-conference game over the past three seasons and 4-2 ATS against Pacific division opponents this season. SG Nick Young (Knee) is questionable for Los Angeles and if he were out he’d join teammates PG Ronnie Price (Elbow), SG Kobe Bryant (Shoulder), PF Julius Randle (Tibia) and PG Steve Nash (Back), who are all out indefinitely or for the season. SG Tyler Johnson (Ankle) and PG Goran Dragic (Back) are questionable for Miami. The Heat are already without PFs Chris Bosh (Blood Clot) and Josh McRoberts (Knee) for the season.

Can the Lakers beat the Heat in Miami for the first time since 2008? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 56% ATS record (161-129-1) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, the experts have a huge 63% ATS (69-41) record since Feb. 1, led by StatFox Brian who has a stellar 65% ATS (15-8) mark in Best Bets during this timeframe, and is now 58% ATS (53-39) in season Best Bets. StatFox Scott is also sizzling with a 64% ATS record (32-18) in Best Bets since Dec. 21, improving his record to 57% ATS (51-39) for the season. StatFox Gary is also hot with a 60% ATS (27-18) mark in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 1, and is 57% ATS (52-40) this season. StatFox Zach is a robust 65% ATS (28-15) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 2, while StatFox Dave is a red-hot 65% ATS (17-9) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 28.

The Lakers are coming off of a tough loss in Charlotte, but they’ve been very competitive recently. The guy who has really started to play well for Los Angeles is PG Jeremy Lin (11.0 PPG, 4.7 APG, 2.5 RPG, 1.1 SPG). Lin had 23 points, eight assists and six rebounds in 30 minutes against the Hornets. He’s now averaging 18.0 PPG and 6.2 APG in 29.0 MPG over his past five contests. His ability to get to the rim opens things up for his teammates and he has also shot the three well this year (37% 3PT), which is making him a tough cover. C Jordan Hill (12.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG) is going to need to be at his best in this one. He had 12 points and six rebounds in 22 minutes the last time he faced Miami this season, but it’s the rebounding that needs work. He is going to be going up against Hassan Whiteside in this game, and that means that he will really hurt his team if he is not active on the glass. PF Carlos Boozer (12.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG) may be able to help in that department. He finished with 15 points and 11 rebounds in the loss to the Hornets on Tuesday and should be pretty confident heading into this game. Although he had just two points and six rebounds the last time he faced the Heat, Boozer’s shooting and toughness around the basket makes him a scoring threat whenever he is on the floor. SG Wayne Ellington (9.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG) will be relied on to score in this game. He had just seven points in 37 minutes against Charlotte and that is not going to cut it for Los Angeles. He did not play the last time the Lakers played the Heat and his shooting could really change this matchup. Another guy that Miami has not yet seen is PG Jordan Clarkson (8.8 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 2.1 APG). Clarkson is an extremely athletic player and knows how to score the basketball in a number of ways. He’s averaging 15.6 PPG and 3.6 APG over the past five contests and his high motor could give Miami trouble.

The Heat are coming off of a very solid win against the Suns on Monday and this team continues to thrive defensively (96.8 PPG allowed, 6th in NBA). A big reason for that strong defensive play has been C Hassan Whiteside (10.8 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 2.4 BPG). Whiteside is a monster that thrives on pretty much athleticism alone. He has great timing inside and is a matchup nightmare for most teams. Over the past two games, Whiteside is averaging 15.5 PPG, 17.0 RPG and 2.0 BPG. His size is going to give the Lakers trouble and he had 15 points, nine rebounds and five blocks in just 21 minutes the last time he faced Los Angeles. PG Goran Dragic (16.1 PPG, 4.1 APG, 3.5 RPG, 1.0 SPG) had 21 points and four rebounds in just 15 minutes against the Suns last game. Dragic gives the Heat a new element of speed and he should really be able to hurt the Lakers, who are weak at the point guard position. SG Dwyane Wade (20.6 PPG, 5.3 APG, 3.7 RPG, 1.2 SPG) will also be a matchup problem for the Lakers. Wade is capable of beating teams as both a scorer and distributor and will do whatever the Heat need from him in order to secure a victory. He’s averaging 19.0 PPG, 6.5 APG, 4.0 RPG and 3.5 SPG over the past two contests and has been very active on both ends of the floor. Wade got hurt the last time he faced the Lakers, but should tear it up if he can stay on the floor in this one. SF Luol Deng (14.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.0 SPG) struggled the last time he faced Los Angeles, finishing with just eight points. He did, however, grab eight rebounds. If he can get his shot to fall in this game then the Heat should have no trouble winning at home.


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