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Mavericks face red-hot Blazers Thursday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 3/5/2015  at  1:00:00 PM
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DALLAS MAVERICKS (40-22)

at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (40-19)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Line: Portland -3.0, Total: 201.0

The Blazers will be looking to stay hot with a victory over the Mavericks in Portland on Thursday.

The Mavericks hosted the Pelicans on Monday and came away with a 102-93 victory as 8.5-point favorites. The win prevented what would have been a third straight loss for Dallas. It was also the first time they held their opponents to under 100 points in the past three games and the first time they scored 100+ since Feb. 20. The Blazers, meanwhile, beat the Clippers 98-93 as 1.5-point underdogs in Los Angeles. Portland’s defense has been outstanding recently, allowing less than 100 points in eight of the past 10 games. The Blazers have not only won four straight games SU, but they are also 3-1 ATS in those contests. These teams last met in Dallas on Feb. 7, when the Mavericks won 111-101 as 2.5-point home favorites. When these teams met in Portland earlier in the year, the Blazers won 108-87 as 2-point favorites. The Mavericks have gotten the better of this head-to-head series recently though, winning-and-covering in five the past seven games. They are also 7-3 SU and ATS in their past 10 meetings. They’ve even had success in Portland, winning SU in four of their past six trips to Moda Center. Over the past three seasons, the Mavericks are 21-8 ATS in a road game where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. The Blazers, however, are 36-22 ATS after covering in two of their past three games over the past two seasons. C Tyson Chandler (Hip) is probable for the Mavericks, but SF Chandler Parsons (Ankle) is expected to miss this one. The Blazers are not currently dealing with any injuries.

Can the Mavericks beat a red-hot Blazers team in Portland Thursday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 55% ATS record (162-131-1) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, the experts have a huge 62% ATS (72-45) record since Feb. 1, led by StatFox Brian who has a stellar 64% ATS (16-9) mark in Best Bets during this timeframe, and is now 57% ATS (54-40) in season Best Bets. StatFox Scott is also sizzling with a 63% ATS record (32-19) in Best Bets since Dec. 21, improving his record to 56% ATS (51-40) for the season. StatFox Gary is also hot with a 61% ATS (28-18) mark in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 1, and is 57% ATS (53-40) this season. StatFox Zach is a robust 63% ATS (29-17) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 2, while StatFox Dave is a red-hot 65% ATS (17-9) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 28.

The Mavericks got out of the loss column against the Pelicans last game and PG Rajon Rondo (8.8 PPG, 8.1 APG, 5.9 RPG, 1.4 SPG) had one of his best performances in a Dallas uniform in that win. Rondo finished the game with 19 points (9-for-15 FG, 1-for-1 3PT), five rebounds and two assists in 32 minutes of action. The last time Rondo faced the Blazers, he had 13 points, eight assists and six rebounds. He also had two steals and will need to play well on both ends of the floor once again in his matchup with Damian Lillard. The return of C Tyson Chandler (10.6 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 1.3 BPG) should really help Dallas as well. He’s missed the past three games and Dallas needs his ability to defend and hit the glass. He’s struggled against Portland this season, averaging just 7.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 2.0 BPG in two meetings with the team. He will have to rebound the ball better on Thursday. SG Monta Ellis (19.4 PPG, 4.4 APG, 1.9 SPG) had 20 points and six boards in 33 minutes against the Pelicans. He’ll need to start shooting better from the outside, as he has made just 17% of his threes over the past five games. His matchup with Wesley Matthews will be big in this game. PF Dirk Nowitzki (17.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG) had 14 points and eight rebounds last game. He’s been great against the Blazers this season, averaging 21.0 PPG in 31.0 MPG. He has, however, gotten just 3.0 RPG in those contests and he can’t be that ineffective on the glass or his team will have a lot of trouble winning this game.

The Blazers have been hot lately and PG Damian Lillard (21.3 PPG, 6.2 APG, 4.8 RPG, 1.4 SPG) has been a big part of that. Lillard had just five points (1-for-13 FG) against the Clippers last game, but he did have an impressive 18 rebounds and also dished out four assists. Lillard was averaging 30.0 PPG in his previous two games, so it was just an off shooting night for him. He’s averaging 22.0 PPG, 6.5 APG, 6.0 RPG and 2.5 SPG in two games against the Mavericks this season. He’ll need to attack Rajon Rondo in this game and get himself to the basket in order to open things up for his teammates. SG Wesley Matthews (16.1 PPG, 1.3 SPG) is averaging 14.5 PPG and 2.5 SPG against Dallas this season. Matthews is a terrific perimeter defender and he’ll need to keep Monta Ellis in line in this game. He’ll also have to knock down shots from the outside, as he is one of the best shooters on this team (39% 3PT) and will likely get a lot of open looks with the Mavericks keying in on Lillard. PF LaMarcus Aldridge (23.4 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 1.1 BPG) has been on fire for the Blazers, scoring 26+ points in each of the past three games. He’s averaging 22.5 PPG and 10.5 RPG in two meetings with Dallas this season and will need to win his matchup with Dirk Nowitzki Thursday. C Robin Lopez (9.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.5 BPG) is also going to have to play well. Lopez is averaging 13.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG and 1.0 BPG over the past two contests. He’ll have to do the little things in this one and must prevent Tyson Chandler for dominating on the glass.


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