Madison Square Garden – New York, NY
Big East Tournament - Quarterfinals
Tip-off: Thursday, 2:30 p.m. ET
Line: Providence -2.5

Providence looks to stave off a third loss to St. John’s as both teams look to boost their NCAA tournament resumes Thursday.

Prior to St. John’s taking both regular season games off of Providence this season (83-77 in Rhode Island on Jan. 14 and 75-66 in Madison Square Garden on Jan. 31) the last time the Friars beat the Red Storm was a year ago - to the day - in the Big East Tournament. The Friars’ victory would propel them to a magical Big East title run and an automatic bid to the 2014 NCAA tournament. St. John’s is still licking its wounds from an absolute thrashing (105-68) at the hands of conference leader, Villanova, on Saturday. The Red Storm were without the nation’s fifth leading shot-blocker, C Chris Obekpa (5.9 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.2 BPG) in that game, and the floodgates opened once Villanova knew that St. John’s had no rim protection. Obekpa is officially questionable for this contest with a gimpy ankle. Given how integral he is to the Red Storm’s chances of winning, all eyes will be on his injury situation leading up to the opening tip. Before the debacle in Philadelphia, St. John’s had won six of its previous seven games, positioning itself to be in the discussion for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. Providence has bobbed in and out of the top-25 lately, but a home 68-64 loss to Butler on Saturday has to be very damaging in the eyes of the NCAA committee. Just as St. John’s does, Providence desperately needs a solid win to put itself back in good favor, as the loser of this game will most likely find themselves squarely on the bubble. Providence ended its regular season in mediocre fashion (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) including two losses against Villanova (the Friars’ best chances for a statement win). Historically, Providence is 13-7 SU (10-10 ATS) in the past 20 meetings between these two schools, however St. John’s holds a 5-3 SU (6-2 ATS) edge over the past eight contests in this series. The total has gone Over each of the past five times that the Red Storm and Friars have played. In addition to Obekpa’s cloudy status for the Red Storm, G Jamal Branch (4.7 PPG, 2.5 APG) is also questionable (groin).

Can St. John’s upset Providence in the Big East tournament Thursday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have been heating up since Feb. 6, combining for a 55% ATS mark (60-50) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Zach is on a 62% ATS (29-18) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 58% ATS mark (49-36) this season. StatFox Brian is a robust 68% ATS (15-7) in Best Bets since Feb. 6 to put him at 57% ATS (48-36-1) this season, while StatFox Gary has been a profitable 55% ATS (30-25) since Dec. 23 to maintain a 57% ATS (48-37) record for the season. StatFox Dave holds a strong 59% ATS (13-9) mark since Feb. 6.

A St. John’s win, will largely hinge on the health status of Obekpa. That said, they have an outstanding core group of perimeter players. Like Providence’s Bryce Cotton from a year ago, senior G D’Angelo Harrison (17.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.1 3PT/game) has the talent and lack of a conscience to put the Red Storm on his back and carry them to a conference title. He fouls a ton for a guard (3.4 FPG) and these issues can easily take himself off his game, or get him planted on the bench by Coach Steve Lavin. St. John’s best player this season has arguably been the human swiss army knife otherwise known as F Sir’Dominic Pointer (13.7 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 3.1 APG, 53% FG, 2.5 BPG, 2.0 SPG). Pointer has played well against Providence this season, averaging 19 PPG over those two contests. As unique a player as there is in the whole nation, Pointer is amongst the Big East’s top-10 leaders in every category listed above except assists (where he’s 13th). Pointer is the only player in the nation averaging two steals and two blocks per game, as he and Obekpa are the main reasons why the Red Storm are 4th in the nation in blocks (6.6 BPG). Balancing out Coach Lavin’s short rotation are G Rysheed Jordan (14.1 PPG, 3.2 APG, 1.7 SPG) and G Phil Greene IV (13.3 PPG, 40% 3PT). Greene IV is an iron man, leading the team with 34.8 minutes per game and averaged 16 PPG versus the Friars this season on 50% (13-for-26) from the field. Jordan has come into his own this season as he and Pointer help St. John’s rack up 7.6 steals per game (44th NCAA). A new development for Jordan has been his marksmanship from three point range, as he’s exploded to go 10-for-23 in his past three games, en route to leading the Red Storm in scoring during that stretch to end the season at 19.7 points per game. St. John’s knows it can score efficiently against the Friars (50.9% and 47.4% FG, respectively), and will have to continue to do so, as the Red Storm are at a distinct size disadvantage. It’s not likely that the Red Storm will hit just shy of 60% from three, as they did in the road victory over Providence, but as long as Obekpa is healthy, the Red Storm has proven that they can subdue the Providence offense, holding the Friars to 39.7% and 41.3% FG respectively.

Providence knows the keys to beating St. John’s: 1) Get St. John’s in foul trouble (which the Friars did in the first game). 2) Outrebound the Red Storm mercilessly (which the Friars did, 44-29 in the second game). 3) Shoot better than 9-for-31 from three point range. Unfortunately, the Friars lack the perimeter defensive fortitude to match up well with St. John’s aforementioned four key offensive players. The Friars aren’t bad statistically on defense (65.8 PPG allowed, 4th in Big East) and while not at St. John’s level, they do protect the rim well (4.7 BPG, 3rd in Big East, 42nd in NCAA). That said, Providence plays five players over 20 minutes a game and only one of them, star G Kris Dunn (15.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 7.4 APG) is similar in size, stature, and quickness to the Red Storm quartet of Harrison, Jordan, Greene and Pointer. Dunn has been arguably the Big East’s best player, as the oft-injured guard finally put together a full season displaying breathtaking athleticism and playmaking ability, albeit with a penchant for trying to do too much (4.1 TO/G). When arguing whether Dunn is the league’s best player, one could offer up the efforts of fellow teammate, F LaDontae Henton (20.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG), the Big East’s leading scorer and one of only 15 players in the nation to average 20+ points per game this season. Henton has been a four-year starter since day one as a freshman for Coach Ed Cooley. Henton struggled to go 2-for-14 from the field in his last effort versus the Red Storm. A big issue for Providence in this matchup is that the Friars just really struggle from the three point arc (30.4 % 3PT, 315th in NCAA). Scoring inside against the length of Obekpa and Pointer is tough enough, but if their three point woes continue as they have against the Red Storm, Providence will find itself forcing the action towards St. John’s rim protectors hoping that the referees will show them mercy with fouls.