StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

No. 19 Oklahoma faces Oklahoma State Thursday
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 3/12/2015  at  9:11:00 AM
  Print This Article    

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (18-12)

vs. OKLAHOMA SOONERS (21-9)

Sprint Center – Kansas City, MO
Big 12 Tournament - Quarterfinals
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma -4.0

The Red River Rivalry ups the stakes to a Big 12 tournament game, as No. 19 Oklahoma looks to continue its recent dominance over Oklahoma State.

No. 19 Oklahoma looks to take down in-state rival Oklahoma State for the fifth consecutive time (and third time this season) when Coach Lon Kruger leads the Sooners into Kansas City to face Coach Travis Ford’s Cowboys. If Oklahoma State wants any shot of NCAA Tournament play, it will have to go very far in this conference tournament (if not win the whole thing). The Cowboys’ season has taken a precipitous fall over the past 30 days losing five of their past six (1-5 ATS as well). Oklahoma, on the other hand, is 4-1 SU in its last five, but has been quite dubious against the spread in the past 30 days (0-6 ATS). Even more interesting, the Sooners were 5-0 ATS before going into their current aforementioned swoon. The total has also gone Under in eight of the Sooners’ past 12 games. The Sooners have covered in both wins against the Cowboys, both as a 6.5-point home favorite (82-65) on Jan. 17 and as 2.5-point road underdog (64-56) on Jan. 31. Historically, Oklahoma is 7-3 SU (9-1 ATS) in their past 10 against Oklahoma State, highlighting the upper hand it has held since 2011. Since Kruger and Ford have been coaching their respective schools, Oklahoma holds a 6-2 SU (7-1 ATS) edge. Both of these teams will be entering this game healthy.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

Can Oklahoma State upset Oklahoma to improve its chance of making the NCAA tournament on Thursday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have have stayed hot since Dec. 23, combining for a 54% ATS mark (154-134) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Zach is on a 61% ATS (30-19) Best Bets run since Jan. 1 and has a 57% ATS mark (50-37) this season. StatFox Brian is a strong 60% ATS (15-10) in Best Bets since Feb. 6 to put him at 55% ATS (48-39-1) this season, while StatFox Gary has been a profitable 53.4% ATS (31-27) since Dec. 23 to maintain a 56% ATS (49-39) record for the season. StatFox Dave holds a 54% ATS (14-12) mark since Feb. 6 while StatFox Scott has a 53% ATS (30-27) record since Dec. 23.

Oklahoma State is just in a sad state of affairs right now, with losses to conference doormats TCU and Texas Tech amongst the string of disappointments littering the Cowboys’ stretch run. Oklahoma State has been favored in five of their past six contests, but won only one of those games as the favorite. Mirrored in the team slump that the Cowboys have had, is the individual slump that sharpshooting G Phil Forte III (15.5 PPG, 41% 3PT, 2.3 threes/game, 1.9 SPG) is going through. Forte III averaged 17.1 PPG in non-conference play, but has only averaged 14.4 PPG since Jan. 1. In Forte’s stead, the one bright spot for the Cowboys has been the recent play of G Anthony Hickey (9.8 PPG, 3.5 APG, 2 SPG). Hickey’s upped his scoring to 12.9 points per game in his last seven and is shooting lights-out from the field and beyond the arc (52% FG, 56% 3PT – 2.9 threes/game). Hickey can be a disruptive defensive force in the passing lanes and stopping dribble penetration, as his five steals against the Sooners on Jan. 17 shows. Although F Le’Bryan Nash (16.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) is the Cowboys’ best player, this former prep star (who was rumored to be a one-and-done to the NBA type player when recruited) has had a disappointing college career. Nash will have one last chance to shine on the NCAA stage with this game, but has struggled against Oklahoma this year, only scoring 27 points over the two games on 11-for-28 shooting. No Cowboys have had much success shooting the ball against the Sooners this season as Oklahoma State hasn’t broken 40% from the field in either loss (37.3% and 39.6% respectively). The Cowboys also face a serious disadvantage on the glass, with only F Michael Cobbins (6.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.9 BPG) left to battle against a much bigger Oklahoma frontcourt. Nash can offer some assistance down low, but he’s really a small forward by trade. The Cowboys will have to really capitalize on their penchant for ball-hawking defense (8.0 SPG, 2nd in Big 12, 23rd in NCAA).

This season’s version of the Sooners is defensive minded, plays inside-out, and is just an overall mismatch for their smaller in-state rivals. Allowing just 63.1 points per game (88th in NCAA) and 31.3% 3PT (2nd in Big 12, 44th in NCAA), Oklahoma doesn’t have to score 80+ points to win like last year’s squad did. The Sooners stifling perimeter defense held the Cowboys under 28% 3PT in both wins, and Oklahoma State isn’t going to be finding much success if they can’t capitalize on the perimeter. The key for the Sooners will be limiting turnovers and steal chances for their opponent to turn into easy baskets. Oklahoma has a penchant for getting the ball taken away (6.4 steals taken/game, 8th in Big 12), as turnovers in general can be an issue (12.3 TO/game, 191st in NCAA). Star G Buddy Hield (16.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG) commits his fair share of turnovers (9 TO’s in two games versus Oklahoma State) but when he can pour in 27 points on, literally, a perfect shooting night (10-for-10 FG, 4-for-4 FT in the Jan. 17 win), who cares about the turnovers. Supporting Hield in the backcourt are G Isaiah Cousins (12.2 PPG, 45% 3PT, 1.8 threes/game), G Jordan Woodard (9.0 PPG, 4.1 APG) and G Frank Booker (5.2 PPG – 8.9 PPG in last 7 games). Cousins has embraced a larger role on offense this season, taking two more shots per game and bumping his average almost two points per game from 2014. Meanwhile, Woodard hasn’t taken the big step forward many expected after a surprising freshman campaign that saw him average 10.9 points per game, but he’s still logging just shy of 32 minutes a game and one of the league’s more reliable point guards. Booker is a three point specialist off the bench, who can be an x-factor for the Sooners. Up front, with F Ryan Spangler (10.3 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 59% FG, 1.2 BPG) and F TaShawn Thomas (11.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.4 BPG) is where the Sooners really hold the trump card over the Cowboys. Both players have hit double figures in each Sooner win over Oklahoma State this season, with Spangler especially enjoying his time, posting a double-double (11 points, 11 rebounds) in the first contest and going for 13 points, nine rebounds and a career-high six assists on the road in Stillwater.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: