University of Dayton Arena - Dayton, OH
NCAA Tournament – First Round
Tip-off: Wednesday, 6:40 p.m. ET
Line: North Florida -2.5

North Florida looks to continue the Atlantic Sun conference’s recent success in the NCAA tournament when it faces off against NEC champion Robert Morris Wednesday.

Florida Gulf Coast, Mercer, North Florida…? The Ospreys have quite big shoes to fill, walking in a path blazed by Dunk City and advanced by Mercer’s seismic upset of Duke last season. The Atlantic Sun champions will have to get past Robert Morris, a scrappy squad coached by 34 year-old Andy Toole, who’s making his first appearance in the NCAA tournament as head coach (as is Osprey’s coach Matthew Driscoll). Robert Morris is on a six game win streak heading into the tournament, having defeated NEC regular season champion St. Francis (NY) on the road in the conference’s title game, 66-63 on Mar. 10. Robert Morris actually hosted two tournament teams, as it went on to lose 77-50 to Lafayette in each team’s first game of the season and 74-59 to Buffalo on Dec. 7. Robert Morris’ best non-conference performances this season would be a 64-57 loss at Clemson and a 71-54 neutral court win over a 21-12 Louisiana Monroe team. North Florida went 12-2 in conference play before picking up three more victories for their league’s title, as they defeated USC Upstate as a 5.5-point favorite (63-57) on Mar. 8. The Ospreys had some nice tests out of conference play, as they went 1-2 versus tournament teams. North Florida’s aforementioned win comes against Purdue (73-70) in West Lafayette. The Ospreys dropped contests to Northern Iowa (66-49) and Iowa (80-70) in addition to losing 69-67 at Northwestern on a shot in the closing seconds. This is North Florida’s first trip to the NCAA tournament, while Robert Morris is making its first trip since 2010. In that 2010 season, the Colonels took Villanova to overtime as a No. 15 seed before losing 73-70. The Colonels have made the tournament eight times since 1982 with only an “opening round” win in 1983 versus Georgia Southern against seven losses.

Robert Morris has been the face of consistency and excellence for the Northeast Conference in the past decade, as they’ve made the conference tournament finals six out of the past seven years, now earning an NCAA berth for the third time in that span. Despite being outrebounded by 20 at St. Francis (NY) in the conference title game, Robert Morris won with defense, holding the Terriers to 38% FG. While the Colonels held all three NEC tournament opponents under 41% FG, they also happened to step up on offense, consistent with their conference play numbers (47.7% FG, 24th in NCAA) as they shot a respectable 44.5% or above in all three high-pressure games. What really makes the Colonels a scary opponent is how efficient they are from the outside (38% 3PT, 1st in NEC, 45th in NCAA; 42.3% 3PT in conference, 4th in NCAA). The Colonels hit 27 threes over their three NEC tournament wins (51% 3PT). Robert Morris is led by by two upperclassmen, senior G Lucky Jones (14.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG – 1st team, 2.0 3PT/game) and junior G Rodney Pryor (15.2 PPG – 1st team, 4.7 RPG, 2.3 3PT/game). After returning from a concussion six games ago, Jones has come off the bench as the Colonels’ sixth man, scoring double figures in all six games (all Robert Morris wins). Jones is an exceptional rebounder for a guard, as his stats show, as his production there is essential for a Colonels team that only plays one forward at a time and rebounds poorly (33.0 RPG, 211th in NCAA). Pryor “only” averaged 14.7 points in the NEC tournament, which is noteworthy because he came into the tournament averaging 25.5 points per game over his last four regular season games on 59% 3PT (16-for-27). A strength of Robert Morris is that any one of its talented guards can go off in a given night, like G Kavon Stewart (6.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.7 SPG) going for 19 points, eight assists and seven steals in the NEC semifinal win over Bryant, or G Marcquise Reed (14.8 PPG, 1.9 SPG) hitting for 22 points in the NEC quarterfinal win over Wagner. The x-factor for the Colonels is their tallest member of the starting unit, 6-foot-8 freshman F Elijah Minnie (6.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.2 BPG) who entered the lineup in place of Jones and hasn’t looked back. Minnie was the best player on the floor in the NEC title game with 14 points and nine rebounds and is also a capable outside shooter, having hit at least one three in 10 straight games.

The Ospreys have one of the best offenses in the country (75.7 PPG, 25th in NCAA; 77.6 PPG in conference play, 8th in NCAA) and they’re efficient too (1.12 points per-possession; 23rd in NCAA). They’re a solid rebounding club (35.9 RPG in conference play, 66th in NCAA) and they won’t see size in the frontcourt from Robert Morris like they did in the non-conference season where they were just average on the boards. Just like the Colonels, the Ospreys can really shoot the three as well (39.1% 3PT, 20th in NCAA) and they shoot it a lot more than Robert Morris does (9.1 3PT/game, 12th in NCAA). Unlike the Colonels, though (who are just an average team defensively against the three) North Florida excels at defending the arc (31% 3PT against, 40th in NCAA). Leading the way for the Ospreys is G Dallas Moore (15.9 PPG, 3.6 APG, 49% FG), who’s percentage is even more impressive considering he’s second in the Atlantic Sun in field goal attempts. Moore poured in 36 points in the conference tournament semifinals versus Lipscomb. North Florida’s most well-rounded player is senior leader, F Jalen Nesbitt (10.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.7 SPG), who plays point-forward at times. The Ospreys supporting cast includes F Chris Davenport (11.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 54% FG), North Florida’s leading rebounder who gets after it on the defensive end as well (1.0 BPG, 0.9 SPG), and F Demarcus Daniels (9.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.8 BPG) who should both be featured against the smaller Colonels. F Beau Beech (12.5 PPG, 2.4 3PT/game) and G Trent Mackey (8.9 PPG, 2.4 3PT/game) can be huge weapons behind the arc, but both are really struggling right now (Beech & Mackey combined to go 1-for-23 from three in past two games).