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Boise State takes on Dayton Wednesday
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 3/18/2015  at  10:08:00 AM
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BOISE ST BRONCOS (25-8)

vs. DAYTON FLYERS (25-8)

University of Dayton Arena - Dayton, OH
NCAA Tournament – First Round
Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:10 p.m. ET
Line: Dayton -4

Dayton gets to play in its own backyard when it takes on Boise State Wednesday for the right to move on in the NCAA tournament and play Providence.

Both losers in their respective conference championship games, Dayton and Boise State face off on Wednesday night. This is the second time in three years playing in the “first four” for Coach Leon Rice’s Broncos, as they were defeated in 2013 by LaSalle. The Broncos have never won a tournament game. Dayton, as you may remember, had a storybook run as a No. 10 seed with Coach Archie Miller leading his Flyers to the elite eight last season. A handful of key contributors from last year’s Dayton squad return looking for another run deep into March. The Flyers are 7-3 SU (5-5 ATS) in their past 10 games, as they defeated St. Bonaventure and Rhode Island in the A-10 Tournament before losing the title game to VCU in Brooklyn. Boise State, meanwhile, had won 15 of their past 16 (14-2 ATS) before being upset in the Mountain West title game by Wyoming. Again, for all intents and purposes this is a road game for Boise State (while the official records from the NCAA Tournament may not show it) and the Broncos are 8-5 SU (9-4 ATS) away from home. Dayton, on the other hand, is 16-0 SU at University of Dayton Arena (9-5 ATS). Dayton is 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) versus tournament teams, losing to Arkansas while defeating Ole Miss during the month of December. Boise State is 2-3 SU (2-3 ATS) against tournament teams, only having played one tournament team in the non-conference schedule (Wisconsin) and getting smacked by the Badgers on Nov. 14 before sweeping San Diego State in conference and getting swept by Wyoming. Dayton then split with VCU in conference play. In Flyers games at University of Dayton Arena where there’s been a total, that number has been Over eight out of 11 times. The Broncos will be without the services of senior G Anthony Drimic (15.0 PPG in seven games) as has been the case since early December. The school’s sixth all-time leading scorer suffered a season-ending ankle injury.

Considering the Broncos have made the tournament (and flourished) without Anthony Drmic is nothing short of remarkable. Granted, scoring is very depressed in the Mountain West Conference, but this is Coach Rice’s best defensive team in his tenure (60.3 PPG against, 35th in NCAA; 31% 3PT against, 28th in NCAA). While the Broncos aren’t a very good rebounding team (32.9 RPG, 240th in NCAA) they excel in keeping their opponents off the boards (30.5 Opp RPG, 32nd in NCAA). On offense, the Broncos excel at taking care of the ball and making threes (10.3 TO/game, 14th in NCAA; 8.8 3PT/game, 16th in NCAA, 39.4% 3PT, 16th in NCAA). The aforementioned numbers from the outsides are especially impressive when you consider that Boise has chucked 738 threes this season (59 more than the next best Mountain West school). Even though the Broncos play at a slow pace (63.8 poss/game, 268th in NCAA) they parlay their long-range marksmanship (37% of points come from three, 15th in NCAA) into 70.8 points per game (84th in NCAA) and 1.11 points per possession (27th NCAA). Leading the Boise State offense is senior G Derrick Marks (19.3 PPG, 3 RPG, 3.7 APG). Marks has rightfully had to adopt a huge responsibility to carry the offense after Drmic went down for the season, and he’s shined for the most part (20.2 PPG, 50% FG) in the 25 games without his fellow star. As you’d expect, Marks takes a ton of shots (19.6 per game) and the ball is in his hands as much as possible (31.7% usage rate, 14th in NCAA). Marks is also the Broncos’ best weapon from three (2.3 3PT, 44%), however, he’s only 2 for his past 16 from long range, highlighting a slight overall scoring drought for the Broncos’ leader (eight of past nine games under 20 points). F James Webb III (11.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.5 3PT) has been fantastic as a secondary source of offense and the Broncos’ leading rebounder. Webb III has double-figure rebounds in six of his past 10 games and can stretch the defense with his perimeter exploits as well (four games with 4+ threes this season). If you’re looking for true long-range gunner though, you’d have to look no farther than burly F Nick Duncan (9.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.5 3PT). Duncan, second in the Mountain West in threes attempted, scored double-figures in each of Boise State’s three Mountain West tournament games, including 23 against Air Force, and owns three games of six or more made threes this season.

Dayton G Jordan Sibert (16.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.8 SPG and F Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 2.9 APG) were key cogs in the Flyers’ long run through March last year, while sophomore G Scoochie Smith (8.8 PPG, 3.8 APG) played key minutes as a freshman backup in the tournament. That said, the x-factor for Dayton could be the emergence of sophomore F Kendall Pollard (12.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) into a threat, as he played sparingly in 2014. The athletic Pollard is great at getting to the line, but not so great at converting (59% FT) and is the only semblance of rim protection (0.9 BPG) offered by the undersized Flyers, as Coach Miller doesn’t have a rotation player taller than 6-foot-6. Boise State provides a favorable matchup in that regard, as the Broncos’ big men like to float around the perimeter. Pierre is a dynamic all-around talent, capable of taking over a game without scoring, as the offense can run through him as a point-forward. More than capable of grabbing a defensive rebound and running the break, Pierre has six games of five or more assists this season. Sibert is the strong, attacking, guard who excels at putting his head down and scoring in a crowd, but can also hit from long range (2.2 3PT). Sibert also lives in the passing lane, as he’s swiped 13 steals in his past four games. Smith is a tough New York City guard who plays major minutes (34.7) and has upped his scoring in conference play (9.9 PPG). G Kyle Davis (7.5 PPG, 1.3 SPG) is the last Dayton starter in an extremely short rotation, and the last option on offense for the Flyers. If Dayton is to be successful, they’ll have to exploit their advantage taking the ball to the rim with their athleticism, as they’ve done all season (48.7% FT rate, 2nd in NCAA).


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