Michigan State faced Georgia in the second round of the NCAA tournament and came away with a 70-63 victory as a 5.5-point favorite. The Spartans have won five of their past six games SU, covering in just three of those victories. Virginia faced Belmont in its second round game and won 79-67 as a 17-point favorite. This was the most points Virginia scored since putting up 89 in a double overtime game against Miami on Jan. 3. The Cavaliers have, however, failed to cover in three of their past four games. These teams last met on Mar. 28, 2014, when Michigan State beat Virginia 61-59 as a 2.5-point favorite in last year’s Sweet 16. The Spartans also won the only other meeting between these teams on Dec. 4, 2002. Michigan State is 22-10 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less since 1997. Virginia, however, is 11-3 ATS when playing on one or less days of rest over the past three seasons. Michigan State will be without F Javon Bess (Foot), who is out for the season. Virginia is not currently dealing with any serious injuries and will be at full health in this one.
Michigan State has been a very good two-way team this season, scoring 71.9 PPG (67th in NCAA) on 47.1% shooting (32nd in NCAA) and allowing just 63.4 PPG (89th in NCAA) on the defensive end. The leader of this team is G Denzel Valentine (14.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.4 APG), who fills up the stat sheet on a nightly basis. Valentine is a very good outside shooter (42% 3PT) and also knows when he should be attacking and when he should be facilitating. Over the past two games, Valentine is averaging 16.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 6.0 APG. He struggled against Virginia a year ago though, scoring just three points in 35 minutes. If he does not get it going on Sunday then his team won’t have much of a chance of upsetting the Cavaliers. G Travis Trice (14.8 PPG, 5.2 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG) is another guy who will really need to get hot on Sunday. Trice is another very good shooter in this backcourt (37% 3PT) and he can break down his defender off the dribble as well. He had 15 points and six assists against Georgia on Friday and must do more of the same against Virginia. He struggled against the team last year though, scoring just five points. One guy who is still on the roster and destroyed Virginia last year is F Branden Dawson (12.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 1.2 SPG). Dawson is a high motor player who has the strength and toughness to bully teams inside. He had 24 points and 10 boards against Virginia in the tournament a year ago and will need to find similar success Sunday.
Virginia has been one of the best defensive teams in the nation this season, allowing just 51.2 PPG (1st in NCAA). The team is scoring just 65.3 PPG (225th in NCAA) offensively, but it does shoot a solid 46.3% (53rd in NCAA) from the field. The Cavaliers actually got themselves involved in a shootout on Friday, winning 79-67 against Belmont. G Malcolm Brogdon (14.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.4 APG) has been on fire for Virginia lately, averaging 23.5 PPG over the past two contests. Brogdon really knows how to attack the rim and he’ll need to continue to beat his defenders off the dribble moving forward. He had 17 points, five rebounds, three assists and three steals in the tournament game against the Spartans a year ago and must be that active again on Sunday. One major positive for this Cavaliers team is that the break before the tournament allowed G Justin Anderson (12.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG) to get healthy. Anderson has dealt with a number of injuries this season, but he had 15 points and five boards against Belmont and looked the best he has in months for the Cavaliers. He is a marksman from the outside (47% 3PT) and will need to shoot well if this team is going to make an extended tournament run. G London Perrantes (6.5 PPG, 4.7 APG, 2.5 RPG) is the floor general for the Cavaliers. Over the past two games, he’s averaging 10.5 PPG and 3.0 APG in 33.0 MPG. Perrantes will need to knock down his open shots and continue to find his teammates in the right places in this game. F Anthony Gill (11.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG) is going to need to bring a lot of physicality to this game. He’s going to be matched up against Dawson for a majority of this game and he must hold his own or this team is in serious danger of being upset.
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