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Struggling Mavericks host Spurs Tuesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 3/24/2015  at  10:28:00 AM
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SAN ANTONIO SPURS (44-25)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (44-27)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -2.5, Total: 205.5

The Spurs look to win their fourth straight game when they face the Mavericks in Dallas Tuesday.

The Spurs went into Atlanta Sunday and dominated the Hawks in a 114-95 victory as 1.5-point road favorites. San Antonio has now won-and-covered in three straight games, averaging 109.7 PPG and allowing just 95.7 PPG. This team is playing very well on both sides of the ball and it’s a huge reason that it has been able to go 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in its past 12 games. The Mavericks, meanwhile, lost 98-92 as 4.5-point road favorites against the Suns on Sunday. Dallas has now lost two straight games SU and four straight ATS. The team has allowed its opponent to shoot over 50% from the field in two straight games and four of its past six. These teams have met twice this season and both teams won SU but lost ATS when hosting the other. Over the past three seasons, the Spurs are 13-4 SU but just 8-9 ATS against the Mavs. When playing in Dallas in this head-to-head series, the Spurs are 5-3 SU and ATS over the past three seasons. San Antonio is 20-6 ATS in March games over the past two seasons. Dallas, however, is an outstanding 10-0 ATS after trailing in its previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the past three seasons. SG Manu Ginobili (Ankle) is probable for the Spurs, who are likely to be without PF Aron Baynes (Ankle) in this one. PGs Devin Harris (illness) and J.J. Barea (Ankle) are both expected to miss this game for the Mavericks.

Can the Mavericks defeat a sizzling Spurs team in Dallas Tuesday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 55% ATS record (184-150-2) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, the experts have a huge 61% ATS (116-74-4) record since Feb. 1, led by StatFox Gary who has a stellar 61% ATS (34-22-1) mark in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 1, and is 58% ATS (60-44-1) this season. StatFox Scott is also sizzling with a 61% ATS record (39-25-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 21, improving his record to 56% ATS (58-46-1) for the season, and StatFox Brian has a lofty 61% ATS (20-13-1) mark in Best Bets since Feb. 4, and is now 57% ATS (59-45-1) in season Best Bets. StatFox Dave is a scorching 67% ATS (26-13) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 28, while StatFox Zach is a robust 67% ATS (38-19-1) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 2.

The Spurs have really found themselves as of late and SF Kawhi Leonard (15.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.3 SPG) is playing the best regular season basketball of his career. He had 20 points, 10 boards, seven assists and four steals in 32 minutes in the win over Atlanta on Sunday. Over the past five games, he’s averaging 16.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.6 APG and 3.4 SPG. He’s shooting 57% from the outside in those games and his defense is too much to handle at times. If a poor dribbler is anywhere near him then Leonard will find a way to take the ball from him. He’ll need to keep up the intensity against Dallas on Tuesday. PG Tony Parker (14.9 PPG, 5.0 APG, 2.0 RPG) had just eight points and five assists against the Hawks. He did not need to do much offensively in that game, but that should not be the case moving forward. Parker is one of this team’s most reliable weapons on offense and he must get himself going against Dallas. He had 23 points in 35 minutes the only time he faced the team this season and will need to do more of the same Tuesday. PF Tim Duncan (14.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.9 BPG) played a great all around game against Atlanta, finishing with 12 points, seven rebounds, seven assists and four blocks in 31 minutes. Duncan must play well in his matchup with Dirk Nowitzki Tuesday as the outcome of that battle in the post could determine who ends up winning this game. C Tiago Splitter (8.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG) has come on strong for this team recently, averaging 14.2 PPG and 7.2 RPG in 23.8 MPG over the past five contests. He’ll need to be very active in this game, as he can’t afford to be completely outworked by Tyson Chandler.

The Mavericks have lost two straight games and now will look to turn things around against the Spurs. PF Dirk Nowitzki (17.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG) is averaging 17.6 PPG over his past five games and is shooting an absurd 62% from the outside in those contests. He’ll need to stay hot in this one because his team will have no chance of beating San Antonio if Tim Duncan were to drastically outplay him. PG Rajon Rondo (8.9 PPG, 8.1 APG, 5.6 RPG, 1.4 SPG) also has his work cut out for him in this game, as he’ll need to hold his own against Tony Parker. Rondo has, however, played much better recently, averaging 9.2 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 4.4 RPG and 1.8 SPG over the past five games. He’s shooting 51% from the field in those contests and will need to continue to play well on both sides of the ball moving forward. C Tyson Chandler (10.2 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 1.3 BPG) struggled against the Suns last game, finishing with just seven points (2-for-7 FG), 11 boards and no blocks in 31 minutes. The Mavericks will need him to do a better job of protecting the rim on Tuesday and he also can’t afford to miss that many shots, as pretty much all of his attempts come from within a few feet of the basket. Another player who drastically needs to turn it around is SG Monta Ellis (19.0 PPG, 4.2 APG, 1.9 SPG). Ellis was a miserable 4-for-22 from the field against Phoenix, finishing with 11 points in 37 minutes. He’s averaging just 11.5 PPG over the past two games and the Mavericks need him to start scoring. SF Chandler Parsons (15.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.0 SPG) has struggled against the Spurs this season, averaging just 10.5 PPG in two games against the team. He can really help the Mavericks if he could reach 15 or so in this one.


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