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Notre Dame and Wichita State meet Thursday
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 3/26/2015  at  4:11:00 AM
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WICHITA ST SHOCKERS (30-4)

vs. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (31-5)

Quicken Loans Arena - Cleveland, OH
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:15 p.m. ET
Line: Wichita State -2.0

No. 7 seed Wichita State looks to keep coach Mike Brey’s No. 3 seed Notre Dame from reaching the regional finals for the first time in his tenure.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

After successfully and impressively outclassing in-state foe, Kansas, Witchita State enters the round of 16 as the rare higher-seeded favorite over Notre Dame. Given the Fighting Irish’s struggles to put away No. 14 Northeastern (69-65) and their need of overtime to rid themselves of No. 6 Butler (67-64), it’s easy to see why tournament seeding has been proverbially thrown out the window with these odds. The Fighting Irish play well as underdogs (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) and were 5-1 ATS in neutral sites until failing to cover their aforementioned two tournament games. The Shockers are used to being favorites (as they have been in all but one game this season) and have amassed a 28-3 SU (16-14-1 ATS) ledger as such. Wichita State failed to cover the 6.5-point spread in the second round 81-76 win over Indiana, and their aforementioned win over Kansas (78-65 on Sunday) had a Pick line. Wichita State was 2-2 SU (3-1 ATS) versus NCAA tournament teams (including a split with Missouri Valley rival, Northern Iowa) before knocking off Indiana and Kansas. Notre Dame was 2-1 SU (1-2 ATS) in its non-conference schedule against NCAA tournament teams and 6-2 SU (6-2 ATS) in ACC play (against the four other conference rivals that qualified for the tournament). This is Coach Greg Marshall’s 11th appearance in the NCAA tournament (six times with Winthrop, four with Wichita State). The Shockers have a 7-3 NCAA tournament record since 2007 when Marshall took over, highlighted by a Final Four appearance in 2013 and a loss last season versus Kentucky after an undefeated regular season. Mike Brey is appearing in his 12th NCAA tournament as head coach (two with Delaware, 10 with Notre Dame). Brey, coach of the Fighting Irish since 2000, is 8-9 in NCAA tournament play as the head man. This is Brey’s second appearance in the Sweet 16 (2003). Historically, Wichita State and Notre Dame have never met, however Gregg Marshall is 1-0 versus Mike Brey, as Marshall’s Winthrop Eagles (as a No. 11 seed) beat sixth seeded Notre Dame (74-64) in 2007.

Gregg Marshall-coached teams are all about defense first (56.7 PPG allowed, 9th in NCAA). and this year’s version of Wichita State (56.7 PPG allowed, 9th in NCAA) does not stray from that blueprint If you can score on the Shockers, they get somewhat uncomfortable (0-3 ATS when giving up 70+ points; 2-6 ATS when giving up 65+ points). Wichita State excels with preventing baskets via the assist (8.7 APG allowed, 3rd in NCAA; 0.65 A:TO, 5th in NCAA), which is one of Notre Dame’s strengths. What’s important about this is that it’s boom or bust when teams can shake free of Wichita State’s hard-guarding style (34.8% 3PT against, 210th in NCAA). Granted, the Missouri Valley Conference as a whole shoots the three at an above-average percentage (four MVC teams in NCAA top 100 in 3PT %), however, the Shockers had lots of difficulty stopping Indiana (11-for-22 3PT), and Notre Dame’s offense is just as good from three and more diverse in ways that it can score (61.3% True Shooting Pct). Even though the pace should be quite controlled, with both teams ranking below 200th in NCAA in points per-possession, Wichita State should feel comfortable in its ability to score against Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish don’t pressure the ball, and the Shockers mirror Notre Dame in a few ways on offense, namely that they don’t turn the ball over (1.46 A:TO, 8th in NCAA) and their efficient scoring (1.18 points per-possession, 18th in NCAA) helps them scrape out a respectable per-game average (70.3 PPG, 96th in NCAA). While the Shockers aren’t known for their long-range prowess, they’ve shown the ability to get hot from deep (10-for-20 versus Kansas on Sunday). Spearheading the offense are G Fred VanVleet (12.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 5.7 APG, 10th in NCAA A:TO ratio) and G Ron Baker (15 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.4 3PT/G), while F Darius Carter (11.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG) and G Tekele Cotton (9.6 PPG, 4 RPG, 2.9 APG) round out the usual suspects on offense. After combining to go 1-for-9 from three versus Indiana, VanVleet, Baker, and Cotton combined to go 5-for-12 versus Kansas from deep. VanVleet, in particular, was outstanding against the Jayhawks in matching his season high of 27 points in the win.

Notre Dame runs its half-court offense just about as well as anyone in the country, as has been their calling card all season (1.2 points per-possession, 3rd in NCAA; 50.9 FG%, 2nd in NCAA; 1.6 A:TO, 4th in NCAA; 8 3PM/G, 34th in NCAA; 38.9% 3PT, 24th in NCAA) which allows them to score 78.2 points per game (14th in NCAA) despite playing at the 213th slowest pace in the nation. A deeper look, however, shows cracks in the façade starting to show through, indicating that the Irish may be starting to wear down from their earlier excellence. The Fighting Irish have stalled out from deep (8-for-26) in the NCAA tournament so far, and they’ve only hit 10 or more threes in a game once in their past nine contests. Notre Dame had been outrebounded in each of their past seven games until needing overtime to grab 40 boards in a spirited effort versus Butler. It’s fair to question whether Brey’s shallow rotation and the ACC conference title run is starting to take its toll. If there was ever a game where Notre Dame will need their endurance, it’s against the hard-charging Shockers. Senior G Jerian Grant (16.8 PPG, 6.6 APG, 49% FG) will once again try to lead the Fighting Irish where they haven’t been since 1979 – the Elite 8 – as he G Demetrius Jackson (12.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.9 APG) and G Pat Connaughton (12.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.6 3PM/G) are set up for what should be thrilling individual battles against the Shockers’ perimeter trio of VanVleet, Baker and Cotton. Grant has struggled shooting the ball in the tournament so far (37%) but picking up the slack has been Jackson, averaging 14.6 points per game on 55% shooting over his past five contests as Notre Dame’s secondary scoring option. G Steve Vasturia (9.7 PPG, 1 SPG), Notre Dame’s defensive stopper, has also picked up his play on offense while pitching in a career high 20 points against Butler on Saturday. F Zach Auguste (12.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 60% FG) is starting to come on strong again, pouring in double-figure rebounds in two of his last three games.


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