Upstart No. 8 seed North Carolina State is fresh off being the first team in 2015 to drop a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament (71-68 on Saturday against Villanova). The Wolfpack were +9.5, but are no strangers to winning SU as heavy underdogs, as you can just ask their Sweet 16 opponents, Louisville, about that. On Feb. 14 these new ACC foes met for the first time in-conference with Louisville as a 10.5-point home favorite only to watch North Carolina State pull off a 74-65 road win. The Cardinals get their shot at redemption against the Wolfpack after a sluggish win over No. 13 seed UC Irvine (57-55) and then a win as 2.5-point underdogs over Northern Iowa (66-53) on Sunday. Louisville comes into this contest really struggling to cover (3-7 ATS) over their past 10 games. This will also mark the seventh game (eighth game overall) that Louisville plays without dismissed G Chris Jones (5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS without Jones). This will be the third time that Louisville will have a “rematch game” (versus a team they lost to) and they won-and-covered both previous instances (Virginia, North Carolina) in the regular season. Wolfpack coach Mark Gottfried is 9-10 overall in NCAA Tournament play between his career at Murray State, Alabama and North Carolina State (4-3 with the Wolfpack). Louisville coach Rick Pitino’s NCAA Tournament success is well documented as the only collegiate coach in history to take three different schools to a Final Four. A two-time national champion (Kentucky, Louisville), Pitino’s Cardinals are looking to avoid losing in the Sweet 16 for the second straight season.
In the Valentine’s Day victory at Louisville, North Carolina State was led by its backcourt’s contribution of 45 points combined. Led by G Anthony “Cat” Barber (12.3 PPG, 3.7 APG) who scored 21 of those 45 points (10-for-13 at the free throw line) and supported by G Trevor Lacey (15.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.2 3PM/G) who had 14 points and senior G Ralston Turner (12.8 PPG, 2.6 3PM/G) who chipped in 10 points, the Wolfpack guards did their part on offense while holding Louisville stars Montrezl Harrell and Terry Rozier to a combined 14 points, while also getting Rozier to foul out in 28 minutes. The North Carolina State big men also did their part, leading the Wolfpack to a +10 margin on the glass (47-37). C Beejay Anya (4.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.6 BPG, 19.3 MPG) contributed eight points, 10 boards and three blocks in the win, while staying on the court for 28 minutes. Anya, who you’ll remember hit the game-winning shot against LSU in the round of 64 to keep the Wolfpack alive in this tournament, is extremely foul prone, but must stay on the floor to battle Louisville’s size. North Carolina State is 6-1 when Anya plays 25+ minutes. Another young, foul-prone Wolfpack big man, freshman F Abdul-Malik Abu (6.4 PPG) has also proven himself integral to North Carolina State’s recent success, as he’s scored double-figures in his past three games. Bruising sophomore F Leonard Freeman (3.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG) rounds out the frontcourt, and was a key part in the Wolfpack’s upset over Villanova on Saturday while collecting a double-double (11 points, 12 rebounds). Another win over the Cardinals, though, will begin and end with the Wolfpack’s backcourt taking care of the ball, as Barber, Lacey and Turner only turned it over four times in the first meeting against Louisville’s vaunted defense. North Carolina State only commits 10.5 turnovers per game (22nd in NCAA) which bodes well for repeat success.
The Cardinals seem to have finally found their footing playing without the aforementioned Jones, even though creating easy offense continues to be a problem (61.0 PPG in eight games without Jones). As much as Coach Pitino’s style is a frenetic, pressing, quick-shooting team, this season’s version (at least on offense) is anything but, as both tournament wins over UC Irvine and Northern Iowa have seen Louisville with efficient but very slow-paced offense (57 and 54 possessions, respectively). Part of that had to do with their opponent, but some of it seems to be Pitino playing to his personnel. The Cardinals executed well to the tune of 46% from the field against Northern Iowa and capitalized from the free throw line (17-for-21). No player came up bigger in the round of 32 than G Terry Rozier (17.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2 SPG) who put up his most efficient and effective outing since shouldering more of the scoring load with Jones’ departure (25 points, five rebounds, seven assists, 8-for-13 FG, 8-for-9 FT). Rozier can ill-afford a repeat performance of fouling out with single-digits as he did in the first meeting against the Wolfpack. Jones scored 19 points in that loss to keep Louisville afloat, but the Cardinals obviously don’t have that same depth in the backcourt to fall back on. G Quentin Snider (3.8 PPG) has been steady as the new starter flanking Rozier, scoring double-figures in five of his eight starts, including back-to-back games (on 10-for-20 FG) during the NCAA Tournament. Snider isn’t, however, the havoc-inducing defensive force that the departed Jones was in the open floor. F Montrezl Harrell (15.7 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 57% FG) leads the Louisville frontcourt, but is struggling (by his standards) after entering tournament play with three straight double-doubles. Harrell has only grabbed 10 rebounds total in two NCAA games, while scoring just 22 total points. An increase in pace against an average Wolfpack defense could cure what ails him, although Harrell only went 1-for-5 from the field for seven points and 13 rebounds in the first meeting. F Wayne Blackshear (11.1 PPG, 1.6 3PM/G) is the lone senior on the team and is shooting the ball with confidence from deep over his past three games (7-for-16). Given an opening, Blackshear isn’t shy (19 points on 20 shots in the first round win over UC Irvine), and he enjoyed success in the first meeting versus the Wolfpack (19 points on 7-for-10 from the field, 4-for-6 from three).
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