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Sizzling Spurs face Heat in Miami Tuesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 3/31/2015  at  8:17:00 AM
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SAN ANTONIO SPURS (47-26)

at MIAMI HEAT (34-39)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -6.5, Total: N/A

In a rematch of last season’s NBA Finals, a scorching hot San Antonio Spurs team travels to South Beach to take on the Miami Heat.

The Spurs are doing what they do best, turning it on when it is most needed, and they come into this contest as victors in 13 of their past 16 games SU (12-4 ATS). In that time they have defeated opponents by an average of 18.0 PPG and shot better than 50% or better from the field eight times. They’ve won each of the last three times out and most recently took down the Grizzlies at home by a score of 103-89 as 8-point favorites. San Antonio poured in 42-of-83 shots (50.6% FG) and committed a mere eight turnovers in yet another impressive victory. Meanwhile, the Heat sit near the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff race as they’ve gone a solid 5-3 SU and ATS since Mar. 16. They won three games during that stretch when they were considered the underdog and have won their past five contests when playing in front of their faithful fans in Miami. Detroit was their latest victims when it came into town on Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog and lost a 109-102 game. The Heat outrebounded their opponent 46-37 in the win as they made 47.6% of their shots and were tremendous from the charity stripe (24-of-29). While the Spurs have been impressive this season, they are only 18-18 SU (14-21-1 ATS) when playing as the road team as Miami is 18-18 SU as well (16-19-1 ATS) when holding home court advantage. The first game of this season series went to San Antonio at home as 12.5-point favorites when they just barely covered the spread in a 98-85 win. The Spurs hit 40-of-83 shots (48% FG) in the victory as each team turned over the rock 16 times. These teams have obviously seen each other many more times than most East and West Coast crews with the meeting in the Finals where San Antonio won in five games and they are 9-8 SU (11-6 ATS) against the Heat in the past three seasons. Some trends to watch in this one include that the Spurs are a perfect 9-0 ATS after a game committing eight or less turnovers this season as Miami is 15-9 ATS (63%) when playing six or more games in 10 days on the year. The injury report has nobody missing for San Antonio and the Heat are dealing with a plethora of injuries as SF Luol Deng (Knee), PG Shabazz Napier (Knee), C Chris Andersen (Calf) and PF Michael Beasley (Elbow) are listed as questionable while C Hassan Whiteside (Hand), PF Chris Bosh (Blood Clot) and PF Josh McRoberts (Knee) are out.

Can the Spurs defeat the Heat in South Beach on Tuesday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 54% ATS record (190-160-2) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, the experts have a huge 61% ATS (189-121-4) record since Jan. 2, led by StatFox Brian who has a lofty 61% ATS (23-15-1) mark in Best Bets since Feb. 4, and is now 57% ATS (62-47-1) in season Best Bets. StatFox Gary has a huge 58% ATS (36-26-1) mark in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 1, and is 56% ATS (61-48-1) this season. StatFox Scott is also sizzling with a 61% ATS record (42-27-1) in Best Bets since Dec. 21, improving his record to 56% ATS (61-48-1) for the season. StatFox Dave is a scorching 66% ATS (29-15) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 28, while StatFox Zach is a robust 66% ATS (41-21-1) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 2.

The Spurs have continued to be one of the most patient and effective offenses in the league as they are scoring 102.7 PPG (9th in league) as they make 46.3% of their shots (4th in league). They have also been quite impressive on the defensive side of things, allowing opponents to score 97.4 PPG (6th in league) on 44.4% shooting (12th in league). SF Kawhi Leonard (16.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.2 SPG) has been on a tear in the month of March and is coming off a big-time performance (25 points, 10 rebounds) on 11-of-17 shooting in the win over Memphis on Sunday. He was also solid when he last met with the Heat, scoring 24 points with four rebounds, four assists and three steals. PF Tony Parker (14.9 PPG, 4.9 APG) comes into this one behind a nice three-game stretch (16.7 PPG, 5.3 APG, 4.3 RPG) and did well against Miami this season with 21 points and four assists. PF Tim Duncan (13.9 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.9 BPG) has slowed down as the season moves along and has just 10.4 PPG with 7.4 RPG over the past five contests. He was an efficient 5-for-8 with 10 points and 12 rebounds in the win over the Heat back in February.

Miami plays at a very slow pace and have put up just 94.7 PPG (3rd-worst in league) on the year behind 45.7% shooting (10th in league). The team’s slow pace also keeps the opposition at bay with scoring as opponents net 96.8 PPG (3rd in league) on average behind 45.5% of their shots dropping (10th-worst in league). SG Dwyane Wade (21.8 PPG, 5.1 APG, 1.3 SPG) is coming off one of his best showings of the year as he dropped 40 points to go along with six rebounds and four assists against the Pistons. He was able to see this Spurs team five times in the Finals last year, going for 15.2 PPG (44% FG), 3.8 RPG and 1.6 SPG. SG Goran Dragic (16.2 PPG, 4.4 APG, 1.1 SPG) has really struggled in his last two times out, making a meager 7-of-21 shots (33% FG) with 8.0 PPG and 4.0 APG. He saw this opponent twice when he was a member of the Suns and scored 13.5 PPG with 2.5 APG. PF Udonis Haslem (4.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG) has gotten plenty of run (33.0 MPG) over the past three games as the team deals with a ton of injuries and has gone for 12.0 PPG, 11.0 RPG and 1.3 SPG over that time. He was on the court for just four minutes when he last saw San Antonio, getting just two points on 1-of-3 shooting.


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