NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Duck Commander 500

Odds to Win Race

The Sprint Cup Series continues with the Duck Commander 500, an annual race that has taken place in early April since 1997. The 1.5-mile, asphalt track has not typically been dominated by a few, but by many as there are only three multiple winners with nobody winning more than twice. This short list includes Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth and most recently Greg Biffle in 2012 when he posted the fastest time in the history of this race when he completed the 334 laps in 3:07:12. The large 24-degree corners have led to some of the fastest speeds on the series and last year it was Joey Logano who earned one of his nine career victories after the race was extended due to a green-white-checker finish. Roush Fenway Racing has been able to net by far the most wins in this specific event, getting seven winners over its existence with Biffle’s impressive 2012 performance being the last. Let’s take a look through the entrants and see who could get a win this week.

Matt Kenseth - If there is one racer who has dominated on this course it is Kenseth with his driver-best rating of 107.2 here as he has two wins and 13 top-five finishes in his 25 starts. His 17 top-10s also ties him with Jimmie Johnson for most here and he leads all other racers with an impressive average finish of 8.9. He ranks 11th in the Sprint Cup Standings this year and is coming off his best performance when he finished fourth at Martinsville, leading a total of 11 laps and adding to the 54 laps that he had led previously on the season. Kenseth should be able to pull down at least a second straight top-10 in Texas this week with a very good chance of a 32nd career Sprint Cup win on the way.

Greg Biffle - Biffle’s top-10 finish at both the Budweiser Dual #2 and Daytona 500 show that he still has some left in the tank at the age of 45, but he has finished 14th or worse in each of the first five Sprint Cup Series races this year. Texas Motor Speedway is a perfect spot for him to get out of this funk with his two past victories and eight top-fives being a big factor. He has an average green-flag speed of 173.396 MPH when running on the track, third most among drivers, and has spent 4,457 laps in the top-15 (74%), ranking the fourth-most among his peers while getting a series-high 742 quality passes. Biffle should be able to put up his best showing of the year in Forth Worth this week.

Carl Edwards – Edwards grabbed the win at this event back in 2008 and has also had solid showings when running on this track with two other victories as he has had the fastest lap 358 times (third-most). His driver rating of 97.5 is sixth-best at the venue and he has spent 73.5% of his time (4,425 laps) amongst the top-15. He has been consistent with an average finish of 14.3 over his past three races on the year, but should have no issues getting near the top of the leaderboard when he hits the asphalt in Forth Worth on Saturday.

Jamie McMurray - McMurray has looked solid this season since a poor 40th-place in Atlanta to kickoff the Sprint Cup Series, ranking 21st or better in each successive race with three top-11s. He was the runner-up in Phoenix and currently is 14th in the standings. The seven-time Sprint Cup Series winner has started at Texas Motor Speedway 22 times in his career and has earned five top-five finishes as his average finish of 17.7 ranks him 15th in the tracks history. McMurray’s season has been trending upwards and he should be expected to be near the front of the pack once again.

Danica Patrick - This is more of a contrarian pick considering in her five starts at this track she has a poor average finish of 28th, but her season is moving in the right direction as she comes off a seventh in Martinsville and is sitting at 15th in the Sprint Cup Standings. Her best finish in the series in the past was 27th, so this year is certainly a step in the right direction and she could grab the momentum from her last start to propel her into career-best campaign.