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NASCAR heads to Richmond Sunday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 4/30/2015  at  6:25:00 AM
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NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Toyota Owners 400

Sunday, April 22nd – 1:00 p.m. EDT
Bristol Motor Speedway – Bristol, TN

Odds to Win Race

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NASCAR sets its sights on Richmond, Virginia this week for the Toyota Owners 400, a race that originated in 1953 and was first named the Richmond 200. The 300-mile race will take place on the 14-degree turns of Richmond International Raceway under the lights as the racers look to dominate the 0.75-mile, asphalt course. Last year, it was Joey Logano that took the checkered flag after running the 300 miles in 3:20:47, the slowest winning mark since 2003, as he saw an average speed of just 91.369 MPH. In the past, this was Kyle Busch’s race to win as he did so in four consecutive attempts between 2009 and 2012. Before him, both Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2000, 2004, 2006) and Tony Stewart (2001, 2002) were multiple victors at this race who are still active drivers. The Sprint Cup Series is coming off an exciting showing in Bristol where four different racers led for at least 45 laps on a rain-soaked track with Matt Kenseth getting the win. Let’s scour through the entrants this week and find some who could be in the victory lane on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick (7/2) - Harvick is a threat to win each and every week, but got into some trouble at Bristol and posted a 38th finish after spending 43 laps in the garage for repairs. Before that, he was the leader for 184 laps and looked well on his way to another victory. He is the current Sprint Cup Series leader with a top-eight showing in every other race on the year which included back-to-back victories in Las Vegas and Phoenix. He has won three times with 17 top-10s and an average finish of 11.0 in his 28 attempts at Richmond International Raceway. Harvick has the second-best driver rating (110.3) on this course and has a series-best average running position (7.5), laps in the top-15 (7,415, 92.5%) and quality passes (657). He should maintain his hold on the top of the standings with another top-five this weekend.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (8/1) - Earnhardt Jr. is an all-or-nothing type of racer when on this track and while his driver rating (86.9, 12th-best) and laps in the top-15 (4,515, 56.3%, 12th-most) aren’t all that impressive, he has earned three victories here in the past. This season he has managed five top-six showings in his eight starts, but always has a chance of putting up a dud as he did last week in Bristol when he placed 16th and had finishes worse than 36th in two of the previous four weeks before that. Earnhardt Jr. has not led in a race since Las Vegas (Mar. 8th), but should be able to regain some momentum on a track which has treated him well in the past.

Denny Hamlin (12/1) - Hamlin owns the best driver rating (110.7) amongst his peers at Richmond International Raceway as he has earned two wins, seven top-fives and nine top-10s here over just 17 career attempts. After all that, his average finish has been 10.4, but he has not won in this particular race. He has gone a series-best 598 laps as the fastest driver when here and is second-best with an average running position of 7.5. Overall Hamlin hasn’t had the best of seasons, sprinkling in a win at Martinsville and a top-five at both Las Vegas and Daytona with four other starts where he ended worse than 20th. Hamlin should be able to get it done this week and easily finish towards the top of the leaderboard.

Danica Patrick (500/1) - Patrick is having the best season of her career and currently sits in 13th in the Sprint Cup Standings due to a top-20 finish in each of the past four races. In those, she improved on her starting position and placed ninth last week after starting in 26th; her lowest beginning spot of the year. In just four starts at Richmond, Patrick has a poor average finish of 27.3, but both of her top-10 finishes this year have come on short tracks and with this one being less than a mile as well, there is a good chance that she shows up for another stellar performance.

David Ragan (Field: 250/1) - Ragan is currently just on the outside looking in on the chase and followed up three straight top-20 finishes with a 41st at Bristol after a wreck, but should be able to get back to form if he can keep his car intact. He has run on this track 16 times in his career with a not all that impressive average finish of 25.4, but he does have three top-fives in that time and will continue to be a threat to the front of the pack as long as his car’s running smooth.


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