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Lincoln hosts the Geico 500 Sunday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 5/2/2015  at  8:45:00 AM
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NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Geico 500

Sunday, May 3rd – 1:00 p.m. EDT
Talladega Superspeedway – Lincoln, AL

Odds to Win Race

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The racers head to the storied Talladega Superspeedway this week for the first event since the Daytona 500 with restrictor plates at the Geico 500. A typical race here will have the cars in more of a pack as the plates keep the competitive balance closer to even than usual, and with all the cars so close together, a large, multi-car pileup is usually on the horizon. Last season, it was Denny Hamlin that was able to take the checkered flag as his Toyota car conquered the tri-oval course with huge 30+-degree turns in 3:17:16. There have been plenty of multiple-time winners at this event in recent memory with Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2), Jimmie Johnson (2), Brad Keselowski (2) and Jeff Gordon (4) combining to win 10 of the last 15 races. In 2011, the drivers set the Sprint Cup Series record for most lead changes in regulation (88) and closest margin of victory (0.002 sec) as they remained in a pack for a majority of the race. Let’s take a look at the entrants for this week and find some drivers who could be hoisting the trophy on Sunday night.

Jimmie Johnson (5/1) - Johnson doesn’t have quite as many starts in this event as the favorite this weekend, Dale Earnhardt Jr., but in two fewer attempts has just as many top-fives (5) and victories (2). Overall on this track, Johnson has been able to compile a driver rating of 87.5 (5th in series) and has been able to complete 3,944 quality passes (5th in series); a very important skill to have with all the cards so close together. He already has two wins on the year and has finished in the top-three at each of the past three races while also doing well (5th) in the Daytona 500; another restrictor plate race. Of the favorites, Johnson seems to be the most consistent when travelling to Talladega.

Clint Bowyer (100/1) - Bowyer has struggled somewhat this year with just two top-10 finishes, but both of them give him hope as the first was in Daytona when he placed seventh while the other was his last race in Richmond when he finished in ninth. Overall in his 55 races with restrictor plates, Bowyer ranks second behind just Dale Earnhardt Jr. with an average finishing position of 14.8 and his average finish of 14.4 at this track in 18 attempts is the best of any driver who has ran on it more than 10 times. He has six top-fives here and two wins with both of the victories coming during the other race that is hosted on the grounds; the Alabama 500. Look for Bowyer to build on his solid showing last week and be at the top of the pack.

Kyle Larson (40/1) - Larson owns the best driver rating (95.6) amongst his peers at this venue and despite it being over only two attempts, he has proven to do well in races with restrictor plates as he has two top-fives in seven tries in similar races. So far in 2015, Larson has put up three top-10s and was even able to lead for 90 laps a few weeks ago at Bristol. His average green flag speed of 193.444 MPH at his course should have him looking to continue improving his spot in the Sprint Cup Standings with a solid run.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (500/1) - Stenhouse Jr. has just nine career top-10 finishes in his young career with one of them coming at Bristol a couple of weeks ago where he started 25th and ended in fourth. The other two came in his three attempts when on Talladega Superspeedway leading to an average finish of 8.7. His average green-flag speed of 193.454 MPH is best in the series as he has the sixth-best average running position (16.0) and driver rating (85.0) on the course. The 27-year-old should be able to break out this week at a track where he is obviously very comfortable.

Brendan Gaughan (Field:100/1) - Gaughan hasn’t done much of anything in the Sprint Cup series this year, racing in four events with his best showing being a 28th at Atlanta back in early March. What he has been doing well is being competitive each race in the Xfinity Series where he has four top-10s in eight events. Gaughan earned one of his four career top-10 finishes when he was in Talladega earlier in his career and is slowly making his way back into this series. In each of his last Sprint Cup races, the 39-year-old has improved on his pole position, so that will be key if he wishes to get a solid finish this week.


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