FedEx St. Jude Classic

Odds to Win Tournament

With just a week left until the much anticipated U.S. Open, the players head to Memphis and TPC Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Classic; an event that has been a fixture since 1958 and played at this venue since 1989. The par-70, 7,329-yard course typically boasts some weak fields and as a result has had just five multiple-time winners here with Dave Hill (1967, 1969, 1970, 1973) doing it most frequently and Justin Leonard (2005, 2008) doing so most recently. The course doesn’t typically give up too much scoring, and since 2006, the winning score has exceeded 13-under-par just once as Brian Gay posted an 18-under-par tournament in 2006. Last year it was Ben Crane who took home the trophy with a score of 10-under after a Thursday 63 and was able to hold off a talented top of the leaderboard with Webb Simpson, Billy Horschel, Phil Mickelson and Rickie Fowler all in the top-15. The field will not be overwhelming this week when Crane looks to repeat, as world No. 7 and 2012 victor here, Dustin Johnson, leads the way and is followed by three other Americans (Phil Mickelson, Billy Horschel and Brooks Koepka) from the top-25 in the Official World Golf Rankings. Not many foreign-born players travel to this tourney and that is certainly evidenced by golfers from the U.S. winning all but five times, including 15 of the past 16 attempts, since its inception in 1958. Let’s take a look over the field and find a few names who could be driving home with a winner’s paycheck this week.

Dustin Johnson: Johnson is a heavy favorite here, but it may be well worth it to drop some units on the only top-10 golfer in the field this week as he is a former champion here (2012) and followed that with consecutive top-25 showings in the past two years. He already has a win this year at the WGC-Cadillac Championship and after struggling for a few weeks at the Zurich Classic, WGC-Match Play Championship and the Players Championship, rebounded in the past two weeks with two straight top-13 showings and carded 5-of-8 rounds at 69 or better in that period. He could leave this weak field in the dust as he boasts the longest drive (317.6 yard per) on the tour and as a result has gained 1.473 strokes on the field from tee-to-green (9th on tour). Even though the payout won’t be as substantial, this may be one of the closest to sure things that comes around in golf this season and DJ could run the field by multiple strokes.

Ryan Palmer: Palmer is one of the players not mentioned above as he sits just outside the top-25 of the OWGR at 26th after putting together a 2015 season in which he is 10-for-13 in cuts made (77%) and seems to always be competitive with eight top-25s in those visits to the weekend. The 38-year-old had fallen off in recent tournaments with missed cuts at both the Players Championship and Crowne Plaza Invitational, but found his stroke once again last week at the Byron Nelson with his fourth top-10 finish of the year after going 10-under-par and tying for 10th. Palmer has been in the top-four here twice in the past three years and can trust that his long drive (302.8 yards per, 13th on tour) and total strokes gained (1.382, 9th on tour) will play well against the poor field in Memphis once again.

George McNeill: McNeill has been one of the hottest golfers on the tour recently and has made eight consecutive cuts with five top-20 finishes over that stretch. Although he has yet to really make a run at a victory in 2015, with his best showing being a fifth at the Crowne Plaza Invitational, he has shown up and been competitive against tough fields each week, and with the talent being much scarcer at TPC Southwind, he could be on his way to a third PGA victory. He’s carded a score of 70 or better in nine of his past 12 rounds due to his top-50 rankings in strokes gained putting (0.381, 32nd on tour) and total strokes gained (0.599, 44th on tour). McNeill has not exactly lit up this course in the past, but has made the cut here in three of his last four attempts and with his recent solid play should be able to get a nice finish come Sunday afternoon.

Will Wilcox: Wilcox has played in just eight events during the 2015 season, most of them being against weak fields, but nonetheless has earned six made cuts and four-top-25s in that time. He has made the cut in five of the past six weeks and been very competitive during that stretch, with three finishes within the top-18 and comes off a Byron Nelson event in which he shot 68 or better each day and grabbed a 22nd on his eight-under-par score. Just like Bohn ahead of him here, Wilcox ranks amongst the top-25 in driving accuracy (68.23%, 25th on tour) and GIR (71.43%, 4th on tour) as well as the propensity to get it done with his short game and ranks 16th in scrambling (64.58%) and sixth in sand save percentage (65.85%). Look for the former Web.com graduate to build on his solid showings with a nice performance in Tennessee this week.

Colt Knost: The former SMU graduate is coming off a missed cut at the Memorial Tournament, but racked up two consecutive top-10 showings previous to that with 7-of-8 rounds at 68 or better between the Byron Nelson and Crowne Plaza Championships. In all he has made 11-of-19 cuts (58%) and added another top-10 finish earlier in the year at the Humana Challenge when a Sunday 63 bumped his score to 19-under and a tie for 10th. Knost seems to always be in the fairway with his drives, ranking seventh in the category on tour with 71.03% of fairways hit while also being in the top-50 in GIR (68.33%, 36th on tour) and proximity to hole (33’4”, 7th on tour). With the weak field here, it is a perfect opportunity for Knost to go after his first PGA Tour event championship.