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Red Sox host Braves Monday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 6/15/2015  at  9:12:00 AM
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ATLANTA BRAVES (30-33)

at BOSTON RED SOX (27-37)

First pitch: Monday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Boston -145, Atlanta +135, Total: 9

The Boston Red Sox look to avoid their seventh straight loss when they host the Atlanta Braves on Monday night.

The Red Sox have run into a few of the hottest teams in baseball over the past week and were swept in three games against both the Orioles and Blue Jays leading up to this contest. During the stretch they’ve been outscored 43-26 and the pitching was horrid against Toronto with 31 runs allowed in the three contests (10.3 runs per game). In Sunday’s 13-5 loss, they managed eight hits and had at least one from each of their first four batters in the lineup. With his two-hit day in the loss, 2B Dustin Pedroia (.309) has a hit in 12 of his last 13 games, batting .373 with a homer and five RBI in that time. Atlanta had a hot start to the year, but has cooled off of late and is 5-8 in the month of June as it comes off of a 2-1 series loss in New York most recently. They failed to get a victory in the rubber-match on Sunday afternoon, a high scoring affair in which the Braves lost 10-8 after leading by five runs early on in the contest. The offense was an impressive 7-for-13 with RISP while New York was a meager 2-for-12, but it was the four homers by the Mets that gave Atlanta its seventh loss by two runs or fewer in their eight June defeats. Despite the defeat, 1B Freddie Freeman (.306) extended his hit streak to four games and is 7-for-17 (.412) with two homers, five RBI and five walks in that time. The pitching matchup in this game will put RHP Willams Perez (2-0, 2.70 ERA) of the Braves up against struggling RHP Rick Porcello (4-6, 5.26 ERA) of the host Sox. When on the road this year, Atlanta is a poor 15-19 as they take on this Boston group which has played to a 15-17 record at Fenway Park. These clubs haven’t played often since the start of the 2013 season, meeting just four times, but the Red Sox have made the most of them with a win each time, two both home and away. When they met in Boston last year, the Sox outscored the Braves 8-3 and tallied 12 hits in each victory. Trends show that the Red Sox are a putrid 30-52 (.366) at home when the total in 8.5 to 10 in the past two seasons as Atlanta is a mere 86-94 (.478) against right-handed starters in the same timeframe. The injury report has no significant omissions for the visiting Braves as Boston continues to play without OFs Daniel Nava (Thumb), Shane Victorino (Calf) and Ryan Hanigan (Wrist) while OF Mookie Betts (Back) is listed as questionable.

Perez has been a welcome surprise for the Braves rotation as the 24-year-old has taken time to mature in their system since 2010 and has improved steadily over the past few seasons. Before making the jump to the big leagues this year, he had five starts at triple-A and was borderline dominant with four earned runs allowed (1.33 ERA) and seven strikeouts per nine innings. Perez has now thrown in eight games (5 starts) with Atlanta and as a starter has a 1.80 ERA (1.30 WHIP) with 8.1 K/9; his only issue being control (3.9 BB/9). In his last eight innings of work (1 start, 1 relief appearance), Perez has a save and a win while allowing one unearned run on six hits. He has yet to take on the Red Sox in his career, but besides the blistering hot Pedroia, Perez will need to work carefully when pitching against OF Hanley Ramirez (.275) who leads the team with 13 HRs and 33 RBI. On the other hand, he may get relief against 1B Mike Napoli (.200) who has struck out in 25.8% of his at-bats and is hitting a meager .193 against right-handers this season. The Atlanta bullpen has gone 11-15 with a bloated 4.69 ERA (1.38 WHIP) and is 20-for-33 (61%) in save chances. Jason Grilli (3.22 ERA, 16 saves) has not allowed an earned run in his last six appearances, giving up two hits and compiling a 6:1 K/BB ratio in during the stretch.

Porcello was one of the key acquisitions for Boston this offseason and it looked great at the time as the 26-year-old had improved his ERA each year since 2010 from a 4.92 mark to a career-best 3.43 in 2014. Unfortunately, he has not taken those improvements to his new team and despite seeing his strikeouts raise to 7.2 K/9, he has allowed 11 homers in his 75.1 IP (1.31 HR/9) and has now seen his team lose in his last four outings. His GB%, which he held at 49% or higher in each his other seasons since 2009, is at a mere 43.8% and he is leaving a career-low 65.8% of runners on base. Porcello has seen this Braves team just once in his career, and in the game he earned a win after pitching 6.1 innings of three-run baseball. He will not look forward to seeing OF Nick Markakis (9-for-24, 1 double, 1 HR, 2 RBI) who he faced plenty when he was on the Orioles last year, but could enjoy taking on A.J. Pierzynski who has five hits in his 25 times facing the righty (.200). The Red Sox ‘pen hasn’t been all too impressive in 2015, going 8-10 with a 3.80 ERA (1.34 WHIP) and are 14-for-22 (64%) in save opportunities. Koji Uehara (2.25 ERA, saves) has two losses and a blown save in his last six appearances, giving up six runs (2 ER) in the 4.2 frames during that period.


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