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Sonoma hosts Save Mart 350 Sunday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 6/28/2015  at  5:36:00 AM
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NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Toyota – Save Mart 350

Sunday, June 28th – 3:00 p.m. EDT
Sonoma Raceway – Sonoma, CA

Odds to Win Race

(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.ag)

The drivers head to Sonoma Raceway this week for one of the two unique runs on a “road course”, with the other being Watkins Glen. Currently they run on a 1.99-mile course and go 110 laps (218.9 miles) before crowning a winner here. One unique part of the road courses are that some drivers, also called “road ringers” come to compete only on these types of tracks. There has been a ton of different winners here in the past decade and there hasn’t been a repeat victor at Sonoma since Jeff Gordon won in both 2004 and 2006. Overall, there are five different men who have multiple wins at this event, and besides Gordon, Tony Stewart (2001, 2005) is the only other active racer to have done so. Carl Edwards was able to earn one of his 24 career victories here last year when he dominated the track in 2:51:30, posting an average speed of 76.583 MPH; the slowest speed since 2011. Let’s take a look through the entrant list and find some racers who could come through on the road course this week.

Jeff Gordon (6/1) - Gordon earns the best odds here as he has dominated this course in his 22 career starts, winning five times with 14 top-five finishes, but has not taken the victory since 2006. He came in first during three straight attempts (1998-2000) earlier in his career and has an amazing average finish of 8.0. Gordon ranks amongst the best in NASCAR in plenty of stats at the course, tallying a driver rating of 103.4 (second-best) and owns an average green flag speed of 89.932 MPH (third-fastest). The 43-year-old is in the midst of his final season, and he has nine top-10s on the year, but should be able to put up one of his best performances on a course where he has more experience and success than any other driver.

Kurt Busch (6/1) - Busch is coming off of his second win of this year after starting in 24th in Michigan and then leading for just six laps in the rainy race. He has the best driver rating (106.5) when at Sonoma and owns one victory (2011) when he finished in 2:54:10 and averaged 75.411 MPH. Busch is currently in third in the Sprint Cup standing, mainly due to his two wins, but has done worse than 15th just once while finishing in the top-five six times over 12 starts. The 36-year-old has been in the top-10 in 207-of-519 (40%) career races, coming away with the win in 27 of those. Busch should be able to piggy-back his nice run at Michigan International Speedway and once again perform well at this road course.

Tony Stewart (18/1) - Stewart has not had the best of seasons in 2015, ranking 26th in the Sprint Cup Series behind just one top-10 finish. What gets him a spot here and higher odds from Vegas is the prominence he’s had on road courses, winning seven times between Sonoma and Watkins Glen while last being a victor here in 2005. His average running position of 12.0 at Sonoma ranks second-best and he has 274 career quality passes on this road course (second-most). He has not been the same in the past few years, but has finished in the top-21 in four of the last five races and should perform better this week in Sonoma, a course that has been good to him in the past.

Kasey Kahne (20/1) - Kahne has had a solid 2015 campaign and sits in 12th in the Sprint Cup Series thanks to six top-nine finishes with one pole. That pole came last week in Michigan, but he was unable to hold the position, eventually ending in 15th after leading just one lap. His driver rating (85.5) puts him as 10th-best and if he is behind late he could get back up to the front with 242 career quality passes in his time at Sonoma (fourth-most). He used his skills on this type of course to grab one of his 17 career wins when he took down the win in 2009 at a race extended due to a green-white-checker finish. Kahne was unable to capitalize on his pole last week, but he has always done well here and will not make that mistake again if he gets a nice starting position.

Casey Mears (100/1) - Mears has just one top-10 finish in 2015, but has been near the top group plenty of times with a top-20 finish in four of his last six times out. The 37-year-old has been around for a long time with his debut coming back in 2001, but still has a mere one win to his name which came at the 2007 Coca-Cola 600, but he does have three poles and 51 career finishes within the top-10. Mears has finished in the top-16 at each of his last six visits between Watkins Glen and Sonoma and is coming off of a 13th here in the 2014 installment of the race. Look for the veteran to improve on his recent success on road courses and jump into the top-10 this week with a chance to surprise many.


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