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Struggling Cardinals face Cubs Wednesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 7/8/2015  at  10:44:00 AM
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ST LOUIS CARDINALS (54-30)

at CHICAGO CUBS (46-37)

First pitch: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: St. Louis -110, Chicago +100 Total: 7

An NL Central rivalry heats up on Wednesday night when the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs do battle at Wrigley Field.

It is no surprise that the Cardinals are once again the “Cream of the Crop” in both the NL Central and Major Leagues as they lead the division by 4.5 games over Pittsburgh. It hasn’t been good all the time though, and over the last nine games they have gone 3-6 while losing each of the last two times against Chicago in this series. The four-game set was started by a 6-0 shutout by St. Louis, but since they have lost the last couple by a combined score of 12-7 and lost Tuesday’s night contest 5-3 despite outhitting their opponent 9-6. OF Jayson Heyward (.283) continued to play well, though, with a 2-for-4 night and in his last 10 games has gone 12-for-38 (.316) with three doubles and five runs scored. The Cubs have been one of the more exciting young teams in baseball as their phenomenal prospects from recent years are making it to “The Show” at the same time and have put the club in playoff contention. They are victors in seven of their last nine games and the pitching has been phenomenal during the stretch, giving up an average of two runs per game. They were able to grab the last two contests in this series with offense, though, and in Tuesday’s 5-3 win made the most of their six hits with productive outs and four runs scored between the seventh and eighth innings. Although he went hitless in that game, 3B Kris Bryant (.275) is one of the best rookies the league has seen in years and is 9-for-32 (.281) with two homers, six RBIs and five runs in his last nine performances. Taking the ball to start the game for the Cardinals will be RHP Michael Wacha (10-3, 2.66 ERA) as he goes against RHP Jason Hammel (5-4, 2.89 ERA) of the host Chicago group. It has not been as good for St. Louis on the road as they own a 23-19 record away from home and will have some trouble against a Cubs team which is a solid 24-17 at Wrigley Field in 2015. The two teams have gone head-to-head plenty and since the start of the 2013 campaign, the Cardinals are 30-20 overall, but it is Chicago that has the advantage at home (12-11) in that time. Trends show that Hammel’s teams are a meager 3-11 (.214) in the second half of the season over the last two years as the Cubs have gone 59-46 (.562) with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over the last 15 games in the same stretch. Plenty of talent could be out for the visitors as 2B Kolten Wong (Head) is questionable while the team is without OF Matt Holliday (Quad), 1B Matt Adams (Quad) and OF Jon Jay (Wrist). On the other side of the diamond, Chicago has the trio of 2B Tommy La Stella (Ribs), 3B Mike Olt (Wrist) and C David Ross (Concussion) currently on the DL.

Wacha has been able to improve on a phenomenal first two seasons in the majors and has already eclipsed his WAR from last year in three fewer starts. His strikeouts (7.1 K/9) are down slightly from last year (7.9 K/9), but he has been seeing that part of his game come back around of late with 45 strikeouts in his last seven contests (43.2 IP). His walks (2.0 BB/9) and homers allowed (0.62 HR/9) have remained elite as he has benefitted from opposing batters hitting a miniscule .265 BABIP against him with 78.5% of runners left on base. His last six starts have been a mixed bag of results as his team is 3-3 with him pitching four quality games during the stretch. Against the Cubs in his career, Wacha is 3-1 (3-2 team record) with a 2.97 ERA (1.22 WHIP) and had a nice outing against them (6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 5 K) in a winning effort earlier this year. SS Starlin Castro (7-for-14, 2 doubles, 1 HR, 2 RBI), 1B Anthony Rizzo (5-for-14, 1 HR, 2 RBI) and OF Junior Lake (6-for-11, 1 HR, 2 RBI) have all owned Wacha when matching up as C Miguel Montero is a meager 1-for-10 with two strikeouts against the righty. The ‘pen for St. Louis has been amazing, going 15-10 with a 2.33 ERA (1.23 WHIP) and have saved 33-of-39 (85%) games. Trevor Rosenthal (0.70 ERA, 24 saves) has just one blown save on the year and has allowed just 27 hits in his 38.1 frames.

Hammel has been tremendous with his fifth MLB team as he has posted a career best ERA (2.89) behind better than a strikeout per inning (9.1 K/9) and minimal walks (1.6 BB/9). Despite playing in a hitter-friendly park like Wrigley, Hammel has not given up a ton of homers (0.96 HR/9) as he is also benefitting from batters hitting a low .256 BABIP against him. It is surprising that the righty has not allowed more long balls as he is getting the opposition to hit it on the ground just 37.6% of the time as 10.3% of his flyballs are leaving the yard. He has gone at least seven innings in six of his last 10 starts but has seen his club go a mere 1-4 in his last five outings. The Cardinals have been a thorn in his side over his career as he is 1-3 (1-4 team record) with a 6.57 ERA (1.58 WHIP) against them while failing to do well (4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 7 K) when facing them back in June. OF Jayson Heyward, C Yadier Molina and SS Jhonny Peralta have combined to go a blistering 23-for-49 (.469) with six doubles, two homers and 11 RBI as 3B Matt Carpenter (2-for-8, 4 K) and 1B Mark Reynolds (2-for-14, 5 K) have had their issues against the veteran. The relievers for Chicago have gone 20-13 with a 3.03 ERA (1.22 WHIP) and have successfully saved 21-of-32 (66%) games. It looks as if Jason Motte (2.97 ERA, 5 saves) is now taking over ninth inning duties and the former Cardinal is 5-for-5 in his save opportunities.


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