NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Windows 10 400

Odds to Win Race

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series continues its season in the second visit to Pocono Raceway in Pennsylvania, with the first being the Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400 back in early June. Last year, Dale Earnhardt Jr. completed the sweep at this track, winning each time despite a very close finish, but he fell off quite a bit in this year’s installment with a finish of 11th. In that race, Martin Truex Jr. continued his fantastic season with a victory in 3:08:22 as his average speed of 127.411 MPH was the slowest in this event since 2009. Last week, six different drivers were able to lead at least five laps at The Brickyard, and despite Kevin Harvick leading the most (75), it was Kyle Busch who started in ninth that took down his fourth win in just his ninth start on the year. Let’s go through the entrants for this week and find a few racers who may be able to take down the checkered flag at this 2.5-mile, triangular course.

Kyle Busch (6/1) - Busch is on too much of a tear right now to not drop some units on him, as he has won in each of the last three events and four of the last five. He has never taken the checkered flag when running at Pocono in 21 attempts, but has two top-eight finishes over his last four attempts; including a runner-up performance in 2011. His average finish here (18.3) is on the poor side compared to his career average in all races (15.1), but there is no one doing better than Busch at the moment and there is no reason why this tremendous run cannot continue in Pennsylvania.

Martin Truex Jr. (7/1) - Truex Jr. is in the midst of a career season at the age of 35 and earlier this year was able to conquer this course and win for just the third time in the Sprint Cup Series. His consistency has been amazing and he has done just as well as anybody in getting into the top-10, doing so in 15-of-20 races (75%) while getting into the top-five a total of six times. All of this success has aided him into a current standing of sixth in the Sprint Cup Series, but he has not excelled in his last four times out, doing no better than 12th in New Hampshire and his finishes have continued to get worse since; ending in a 42nd last week. Truex Jr. still possesses the talents to perform week in and week out and should get back on track where he won earlier in the year.

Denny Hamlin (12/1) - In his 19 visits to Pocono Raceway, Hamlin has earned the checkered flag four times while finishing in the top-10 a total of 13 (68%). He’s been victorious at this specific race twice (2006, 2009), and since his last win owns two other top-10 finishes; including a ninth last year. Hamlin was also solid here earlier this season when he started in eighth and finished in 10th, one of his nine top-10s which also included a victory in the All-Star Race and at Martinsville. His team is running hot at the moment with a finish in the top-five at three of the last four events and he improved his 17th-place start to a fifth at The Brickyard most recently. He tops all racers with his driver rating (108.3), average green flag speed (162.806 MPH) and laps in the top-15 (2,543, 79.3%) at this raceway and will have his sights set at another great showing.

Ryan Newman (70/1) - Newman has quietly been moving up the Sprint Cup Series standings and in the past five weeks went from 16th to 13th thanks to four top-11 performances. None of his poles were stellar during that time, starting no better than 16th, but he really moved up last week when his poor start of 43rd was changed to an 11th by the race’s end. Newman does have a victory here in the past, coming way back in 2003, but he has been on fire at this race in the last four years, doing no worse than eighth in that time. It seems more like Newman is treading water when he is on the course, but 17 career victories don’t lie and it would not be a surprise for this underdog to come out from the shadows and take this one down.

David Ragan (200/1) - Signs have been pointing up for the 29-year-old Ragan, who despite being 25th in the Sprint Cup standings, has been able to rattle off a top-18 finish in three of the last four weeks. Much of his success comes from his strong showings before the race as his pole position has been in the single digits at four of the last five venues. Although they do not come often, Ragan has won on this circuit twice in his career, and if he continues to get to the front of the pack at the start, he is due for a big outing.