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Pure Michigan 400 takes place Sunday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 8/15/2015  at  9:00:00 AM
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NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Pure Michigan 400

Sunday, August 16th – 2:30 p.m. EDT
Michigan International Speedway, Brooklyn, MI

Odds to Win Race

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With just four more races until “The Chase for the Cup,” the drivers gear up for their second visit to Michigan this summer for the Pure Michigan 400. In June, when these racers first came to Michigan International Speedway, 11 different cars were able to lead at some point with Kevin Harvick leading the most (63), but it was Kurt Busch that ended up making a huge jump from his 24th pole position to take the trophy home. This specific event has taken place since 1969 on the two-mile, D-shaped oval track that features 18-degree turns and has seen a different winner each year since 2004. Last year, it was Jeff Gordon who took the checkered flag for his second career win in the race and first since first doing so back in 1998. His time (2:49:16) was the slowest since 2009 and he will be joined in this field by just Greg Biffle as multiple time victors in this event. Last week, it was Joey Logano that took his second win of the year at Watkins Glen as he just beat out the scorching hot Kyle Busch, who was the runner-up after leading just three laps. Let’s now look through some of the racers out there this week and find who may have a leg up on the competition.

Jimmie Johnson (8/1) – Johnson has not necessarily dominated this track like he has many others, posting an average finish of 15.429 (10th-best) with just one win. He has raced well overall though, with the third-best driver rating (101.2) here while managing to have the second-fastest green flag speed (179.598 MPH). Johnson has four victories on the year, all coming before the beginning of June, and currently sits in fourth in the Sprint Cup Standings. With six Sprint Cup Series championships and 74 career wins under his belt, it is safe to a say that another win is coming soon after nine straight without one, and he should be somebody that everybody is keeping an eye on this week.

Matt Kenseth (8/1) – Kenseth owns the second-best driver rating (102.0) here thanks to two victories and another 13 top-fives while spending 76.6% of the time (3,125 laps) in the top-15 (second-most). He only has one top-10 in this event over the last four attempts, but is in the midst of a hot streak right now in which he has done no worse than seventh in this last five races. In that time he earned himself a nice win in the Poconos and is coming off of a fourth in Watkins Glen after starting way back in 26th. His last visit to the track came in June and he showed up nicely on that day, placing fourth and leading for three laps. Kenseth has had a ton of success here and will likely continue his recent strong performances again come Sunday afternoon.

Paul Menard (60/1) – It has been a consistent yet unspectacular season for 34-year-old Menard who is often in the 10-15 range at race’s end, but has shown some promise to take the checkered flag with a third in Talladega and a fourth in California. His recent success on this track will also certainly give him some confidence when the engines start on Sunday as he has been in the top-nine, including consecutive fourth-place finishes, in this event over the last three years and had one of his better showings (8th) when the racers came here back in June. Menard has just one career Sprint Cup Series win to his name, but is having his best career season as he looks to improve on his 2012 of 16th in the Sprint Cup Series standings after currently sitting in 11th.

Austin Dillon (100/1) – Dillon has flirted with victories in the past but has never been able to grab one despite finishing in the top-20 of the Sprint Cup Standings last year. The 24-year-old is certainly on the upswing as he gains more experience and in his last six races has been able to grab two top-10s while also putting up a 13th at Pocono a few weeks ago. When going at Michigan International Speedway in his career, Dillon has been great in the pole, starting at an average position of 13.6, but has not carried it over when the race starts with an average finish of 19.4. With his team doing well right now it would not be able to improve on his pole position this week and surprise many with his performance.

Greg Biffle (100/1) – The odds are just too high for a guy who has four career victories at Michigan despite the fact that he is in the midst of a subpar season in which he has just three top-10s over 22 starts. He has been able to get into the top-five in two of those high finishes, ending as the runner up in Charlotte after winning the Sprint Showdown and then also led two laps and grabbed a fifth at Pocono just a few weeks ago. Biffle has a series-best driver rating of 103.8 while spending an incredible 3,265 of his laps in the top-15 (80.1%, series-best). In this event since 2003, he has been huge with nine finishes in the top-10 as he comes off a 10th in 2014. This 45-year-old may not have too much left in the tank, but with another chance at “The Chase” on the line, he should perform well at a track which he has always performed well at.


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