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2015 NFL Preview: NFC South
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 8/28/2015  at  11:03:00 AM
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2015 NFL Preview: NFC South

The final division that we’ll be previewing on StatFox is the NFC South, which has a New Orleans Saints team that is looking to rebound after a lousy 2014 season:

ATLANTA FALCONS

2014 Statistics:
SU Record: 6-10
ATS Record: 7-9
Over/Under: 6-10
Points Scored: 23.8 PPG (12th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 26.1 PPG (27th in NFL)
Odds to Win Super Bowl 50: 38/1

2015 Preview:
The Falcons poached offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan from the Browns and will run a zone-heavy blocking scheme passed down from Mike Shanahan’s old Broncos teams. It won’t be much of a transition for a line that has leaned toward zone the past couple of seasons. It seems like only a matter of time before rookie Tevin Coleman emerges as the leader of what should be a two- or possibly three-back committee. Although Shanahan is a West Coast disciple, expect him to be smart enough to not tweak anything that the Falcons have done in the passing game. Julio Jones will remain a deep threat as the team’s No. 1 receiver, and flanker Roddy White will once again run possession-type routes to complement him. The defense should improve now that former Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is Atlanta’s new head coach.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

2014 Statistics:
SU Record: 8-9-1
ATS Record: 9-9
Over/Under: 10-8
Points Scored: 21.3 PPG (19th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 23.4 PPG (t-20th in NFL)
Odds to Win Super Bowl 50: 60/1

2015 Preview:
The Panthers will continue to be one of the NFL’s most run-heavy teams. They’ve yet to even attempt to replace top pass protector Jordan Gross, who retired two years ago, instead leaning on a diverse rushing attack. Despite the hits he has taken, Cam Newton is still featured in read-option plays and will often take shotgun snaps before plowing ahead in short-yardage situations. Jonathan Stewart will be the lead back, but the Panthers want to limit his touches due to his long injury history. Carolina will continue to steadily but very slowly rebuild the passing-game personnel. Offensive coordinator Mike Shula’s offense is run to set up the pass; the scheme is simplified, a lot of play-action and single, pre-defined reads. Although Carolina’s defense slipped last year from 2013’s dominant performance, the Panthers finished 2014 on a roll—Carolina allowed 17 or fewer points in five of its final six games. It’s a unit that can get to the quarterback, as only the Bills have more sacks over the past two seasons.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

2014 Statistics:
SU Record: 7-9
ATS Record: 6-10
Over/Under: 10-6
Points Scored: 25.1 PPG (t-9th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 26.5 PPG (28th in NFL)
Odds to Win Super Bowl 50: 40/1

2015 Preview:
Everything the Saints have done from a personnel standpoint has suggested a heavier reliance on the running game in 2015. New Orleans was the fifth-most pass-happy team in the NFL last year, but they invested a first-round pick in run-blocking tackle Andrus Peat, re-signed Mark Ingram and brought in free agent C.J. Spiller. Their approach incorporates a number of different schemes and concepts, but they have skewed more toward zone blocking heavy on inside zone runs. Mark Ingram is the workhorse, with C.J. Spiller providing a change-of-pace option and likely taking the bulk of the passing-down reps. The Saints will continue to employ their spread passing attack, even without tight end Jimmy Graham. They spent last summer designing plays for Brandin Cooks—he figures to be the closest thing to Drew Brees’ No. 1 target, used on a variety of deeper routes and receiver screens. Marques Colston will continue to work the perimeter. The Saints’ impressive 2013 season was quickly forgotten, as New Orleans was horrible defensively in 2014. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will likely have rookie Stephone Anthony take over at MLB for the departed Curtis Lofton. FS Jairus Byrd could make a difference after missing 12 games last year.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

2014 Statistics:
SU Record: 2-14
ATS Record: 7-9
Over/Under: 5-11
Points Scored: 17.3 PPG (29th in NFL)
Points Allowed: 25.6 PPG (25th in NFL)
Odds to Win Super Bowl 50: 100/1

2015 Preview:
Dirk Koetter is in as the new offensive coordinator, but the Bucs retained offensive line coach George Warhop. Tampa has loaded up on athletic movers as they continue to transition to Warhop’s zone-heavy scheme. Doug Martin should be the team leader in carries. Koetter’s scheme is heavy on play-action and deep shots, a good fit for rookie Jameis Winston considering Winston’s tendency to lose track of linebackers. Expect a lot of deep shots to their big receivers, Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Winston always showed a willingness to throw contested passes and let his receiver battle for it, something that plays to Evans’ strengths. Each of the first nine draft picks Lovie Smith made after becoming Tampa’s head coach were on offensive players—he didn’t address defense until the fourth round of the ’15 draft. The Bucs instead went the free-agent route, signing DT Henry Melton, LB Bruce Carter, CB Sterling Moore and S Chris Conte.


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