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#14 LSU faces #25 Mississippi State Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 9/9/2015  at  12:00:00 PM
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LSU TIGERS (0-0)
at MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (1-0)

Davis Wade Stadium - Starkville, MS
Kickoff: Saturday, 9:15 p.m. ET
Line: LSU -4, Total: 49.5

After having its game versus McNeese canceled after five minutes last week, No. 14 LSU will have a much tougher opponent to prepare for in its new season opener on Saturday night when it travels to No. 25 Mississippi State.

Per usual, the Tigers will likely boast a top-notch defense, but their offense was below average last season with 27.6 PPG and 388 total YPG. Sophomore QB Brandon Harris hopes to change that, but has a young group of skill players surrounding him. The Bulldogs certainly have the advantage under center with senior QB Dak Prescott who totaled 4,435 yards and 41 touchdowns last season. It was Prescott's arm (237 pass yds, 2 TD) and legs (72 rush yds, 1 TD) that propelled his team to a 34-16 victory at 21-point home underdog Southern Mississippi last week. LSU has owned this series historically, going 21-2 SU (18-5 ATS) versus Mississippi State since 1992, which includes a 10-1 mark (SU and ATS) in Starkville. However, the Bulldogs won in Baton Rouge last season by a 34-29 score and out-rushed the hosts by a wide 302 to 89 margin. Prescott was the star with 373 total yards and three total touchdowns. The Tigers have an excellent 9-2 ATS record under Les Miles as a road favorite of seven points or less, but good passing teams (58%+ completion pct) from the previous season, such as MSU, who are tabbed as home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are a hefty 46-16 ATS (74%) in the past 10 seasons. The only notable injury for either team is Bulldogs DB Taveze Calhoun, who did not play last week because of an undisclosed ailment, but has been upgraded to probable for Saturday's contest.

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LSU is a very young team, as head coach Les Miles played at least six true freshmen in last week's action before the contest was rained out. The focal point of the offense is highly-recruited RB Leonard Fournette who is coming off a strong freshman season with 1,034 rushing yards (5.5 YPC) and 10 touchdowns. He had just seven carries in the loss to MSU last season despite gaining a solid 38 yards (5.4 YPC) on those seven totes. QB Brandon Harris also played in that game, and was quite effective with 6-of-9 completions for 140 yards (15.6 YPA), 2 TD and 1 INT. The Tigers had one of the best passing defenses in the nation last season, as they held opponents to 164 passing YPG and 5.5 passing YPA. New defensive coordinator Kevin Steele, formerly Alabama's LB coach, is most concerned about a thin linebacker corps, as he understands the challenge of trying to contain the explosive Prescott.

Mississippi State got itself in an early 10-7 hole last week, but dominated Southern Miss in the final three quarters where it outscored the Golden Eagles 27 to 6. QB Dak Prescott connected with 11 different receivers, as WR Fred Ross was the top target with team-highs in receptions (five) and receiving yards (75). The Tigers have great talent in their back four, but they are young and could be ripe for the picking with a senior quarterback. While Prescott was the main ball carrier in the opener, the Bulldogs also got nice production from junior RBs Brandon Holloway (7 rush, 51 yds) and Ashton Shumpert (8 rush, 38 yds). Defensively, MSU still showed vulnerability in the secondary (273 passing YPG allowed last year) as it surrendered 311 passing yards, but the unit did pick off two Southern Miss passes. However, LSU prefers to run the football, and Bulldogs held last week's opponent to a mere 102 yards on 36 carries (2.8 YPC).


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