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Kentuck visits South Carolina Saturday evening
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 9/11/2015  at  10:02:00 AM
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KENTUCKY WILDCATS (1-0)
at SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (1-0)

Williams-Brice Stadium - Columbia, SC
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: South Carolina -8.5, Total: 55.5

Two teams looking for a big start to their SEC seasons will collide on Saturday night when Kentucky visits South Carolina.

The Wildcats barely escaped 16.5-point underdog Louisiana-Lafayette last week, eking out a 40-33 victory with a last-minute touchdown and having the good fortune of getting four ULL turnovers. The Gamecocks were also involved in a nail-biter, edging North Carolina 17-13, and winning the turnover battle 3 to 0. Although South Carolina has been the better team in this matchup since 1992, holding advantages of 16-7 SU and 14-9 ATS in the series, Kentucky is 4-2 ATS in the past six meetings, including outright wins in 2010 and 2014. The Wildcats were 5-point underdogs last season but benefitted from three Gamecocks interceptions to erase a 14-point deficit with 11:45 remaining to pull off the mild upset, 45-38. The team that has won the turnover battle is 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings of these SEC foes, and bettors should also know that the Over is 13-3 in this series since 1993, including a perfect 9-0 in Columbia meetings. While Kentucky bettors should note that its Saturday opponent is 5-15 ATS at home after allowing 6.75+ yards per play in its previous game since 1992, those backing South Carolina can point to Steve Spurrier's strong 25-15 ATS mark after playing a non-conference game since becoming head coach of the program. Both teams are ravaged with injuries in the early going, with the Wildcats missing a slew of linebackers, including LB Courtney Love (eligibility, out), LB Kobie Walker (ankle, doubtful) and LB Jason Hatcher (suspension, doubtful). The news is much better for the Gamecocks, who have given probable tags to QB Connor Mitch (hip), RB Brandon Wilds (shoulder) and WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring), but three SC defenders are questionable in LB Sherrod Pittman (leg), DB Antoine Wilder (ankle) and DB Shannon James (wrist).

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Kentucky showed great offensive balance in the season opener, throwing for 257 yards (6.9 YPA) and running for 178 yards (6.8 YPC). The Wildcats need to do a better job of controlling the clock though, as their 5-of-14 conversions on third down led to a meager 22:55 time of possession. Junior QB Patrick Towles completed just 47% of his passes (16-of-34), but still threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns. In last year's win over the Gamecocks, Towles was an efficient 20-for-29 with 208 yards (7.2 YPA), 1 TD and 0 INT. Sophomore WR Garrett Johnson was his main target last Saturday with five catches for 85 yards and a touchdown. The Wildcats also ran the ball effectively with 178 yards on just 26 carries (6.8 YPC). Most of that production came from sophomore RB Stanley "Boom" Williams who needed only 10 rushes to gain 135 yards and a touchdown. Kentucky's defense allowed 26 points in the second half last week, which could easily happen again with the offensive talent the team will be facing on Saturday.

South Carolina's ground game was potent last week with 254 yards on 47 carries (5.4 YPC), highlighted by senior RB Shon Carson's 75 yards on just four rushing attempts. RBs Brandon Wilds and David Williams combined for a mediocre 93 yards on 24 carries (3.9 YPC). Considering Kentucky allowed 191 rushing YPG last year, expect a heavy dose of running for the Gamecocks on Saturday. But they need to throw the ball more effectively to set up the run. QB Connor Mitch was just 9-of-22 for 122 yards (5.5 YPA), 1 TD and 0 INT against North Carolina, and connected with stud WR Pharoh Cooper only four times for 20 yards. Cooper had his way with the Wildcats last year, catching six passes for 83 yards and a touchdown. The Gamecocks defense played horribly in 2014 (30.4 PPG, 433 total YPG allowed), but showed significant improvement against the Tar Heels, especially in the area of pressuring the opposing quarterback into some tough throws. This resulted in three South Carolina interceptions.


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