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#18 Utah heads to #13 Oregon Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 9/25/2015  at  9:45:00 AM
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UTAH UTES (3-0)
at OREGON DUCKS (2-1)

Autzen Stadium - Eugene, OR
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Oregon -12, Total: 65.5

No. 18 Utah will have a tough time staying unbeaten when it visits double-digit favorite No. 13 Oregon on Saturday night.

Both offenses are expected to put up a lot of points in this conference showdown, but both teams have quarterbacks playing at less than 100 percent. Utes QB Travis Wilson is questionable with a shoulder injury while Ducks QB Vernon Adams Jr. (finger) has been upgraded to probable. Utah has won each successive game by a wider margin this year, clipping Michigan by seven points in the season opener, taking down Utah State by 10 and then crushing Fresno State on the road by 21 last week. Oregon has scored 61 points in each of its two victories (SU wins, ATS defeats) sandwiched around its 31-28 loss at 4-point favorite Michigan State. These schools have met twice since the Utes joined the Pac-12, and both matchups were dominated by the Ducks, 44-21 in 2013, and 51-27 in Salt Lake City last year when Oregon benefitted from four Utah turnovers. Both schools have plenty to offer bettors with the Utes going 8-1 ATS under head coach Kyle Whittingham after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in three straight games and 48-22 ATS after being involved in a game with 60 total points since 1992. Meanwhile, the Ducks going 14-1 ATS after 24+ points in the first half of the previous game and 11-1 ATS coming off 50+ points under head coach Mark Helfrich. In addition to the quarterbacks, Utah could be missing TE Evan Moeai (leg) and DE Hunter Dimick (knee), while Oregon lost backup QB Travis Jonsen for the season with an undisclosed injury.

Can the Ducks win comfortably against a strong Utah club? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Brian is 57% ATS (8-6) in CFB Best Bets to start the season, including a perfect 3-0 on his weekly lock.

Utah's offense has been nicely balanced so far this season with 182 rushing YPG and 166 passing YPG. Both QBs Travis Wilson (73% completions) and Kendal Thompson (77% completions) have been accurate with their throws, but the pair has combined for only one touchdown pass and two interceptions. Wilson had many big throws in the loss to Oregon last season with 297 yards on 28 attempts (10.6 YPA) plus 2 TD and 2 INT. But if the Utes are going to pull off the upset, RB Devontae Booker needs to produce twice as much as he did versus the Ducks in 2014 when he carried the ball 18 times for 65 yards (3.6 YPC). Booker has already rushed 84 times this season for 345 yards (4.1 YPC) and four touchdowns. The quarterback duo of Wilson and Thompson have also picked up good yardage with their legs, combining for 154 yards on 33 carries (4.7 YPC) and three touchdowns. The Utah defense has done a great job stuffing the run, as opponents have a mere 106 rushing YPG on 3.5 YPC, but the secondary hasn't been great in allowing 259 passing YPG on 6.9 YPA. A big reason why opponents are scoring just 18.3 PPG versus the Utes are a whopping eight turnovers in the first three games.

Per usual, Oregon is putting up gaudy offensive numbers with 50.0 PPG on 567 total YPG. The fast-paced attack has produced 306 rushing YPG on 6.0 YPC, while the air attack has delivered 261 passing YPG on 8.2 YPA. While QB Vernon Adams Jr. is not expected to drop 353 total yards and 4 TD on the Utes like departed QB Marcus Mariota did last year, Adams is expected to improve his middling ratio of 3 TD and 2 INT this year. But Adams has completed 64% of his passes and 8.7 YPA while backup QB Jeff Lockie has connected on 74% of his throws and 7.4 YPA. Junior WR Bralon Addison has been hard to cover with 13 catches for 185 yards, but he gets more space with three of his teammates having at least 119 yards through the air. The main engine of this Ducks offense is sophomore RB Royce Freeman who has 373 rushing yards (6.8 YPC) and 5 TD plus seven catches for another 55 yards. In last year's big win at Utah, Freeman rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown on just 15 carries (6.6 YPC). Oregon's pass defense has had major issues with 316 YPG allowed on 65% completions and 7.5 YPA. The rushing defense has been more effective with 140 YPG on 4.0 YPC. The unit has also been quite opportunistic with seven takeaways this season, including four last week versus Georgia State.


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