Michigan Stadium - Ann Arbor, MI
Kickoff: Saturday, Noon ET
Line: Michigan -6.5, Total: 44.5

No. 22 BYU will look to get back in the win column when it visits a surging Michigan team on Saturday afternoon.

The Cougars couldn't come up with a third straight win in the final minute last week, losing a heart-breaking 24-23 decision at 16.5-point favorite UCLA. But they still improved to 3-0 ATS for the season. The Wolverines dropped their season opener at Utah, but have come back strong with a pair of lopsided wins at home over Oregon State (35-7) and UNLV (28-7). This matchup has occurred only once before, which was way back in the 1984 Holiday Bowl when BYU beat a Michigan team that included current head coach Jim Harbaugh by a 24-17 score. The Cougars have played in three nail-biters this season and are 11-1 ATS coming off a road loss by three points or less since 1992. On the flip side, Michigan is 0-6 ATS when following an SU win in the past two years. But BYU is only 3-13 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses (2.75 or less YPC) since 1992, and the Wolverines also benefit from the fact that home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points are 32-9 ATS (78%) in the first month of the season, after closing out the previous campaign with 2+ straight losses against an opponent that finished the previous season with 4+ wins in its final five contests. Both of these schools have plenty of significant injuries as the Cougars will be without starting QB Taysom Hill (foot) all season and DB Garrett Juergens (collarbone) indefinitely, while RBs Algernon Brown (knee) and Francis Bernard (finger) are both questionable for Saturday. Michigan RB Wyatt Shallman is doubtful with an undisclosed injury, while FB Joe Kerridge (ankle) and WR Brian Cole, TE Tyrone Wheatley, LB Mike McCrary and DB Dymonte Thomas are all questionable with injuries of some sort.

Which team will earn its third victory of the season on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Brian is 57% ATS (8-6) in CFB Best Bets to start the season, including a perfect 3-0 on his weekly lock.

Pocket-passing BYU QB Tanner Mangum has done an admirable job filling in for the injured dual-threat QB Tayson Hill, as Mangum has completed 63% of his throws for 664 yards (7.7 YPA), 4 TD and 3 INT. Three players already have more than a dozen catches with junior WR Mitchell Juergens (13 rec, 244 yds, 2 TD) and senior WRs Mitch Mathews (17 rec, 185 yds, 3 TD) and Devon Blackmon (14 rec, 171 yds) all sharing the wealth in the air attack. The ground game revolves almost entirely around senior RB Adam Hine, who has 279 of his team's 365 rushing yards this season with 6.1 YPC and a pair of scores. Hine had his best game of 2015 last week when he steamrolled UCLA for 149 yards on 23 carries (6.5 YPC) and 1 TD. The Cougars defense has done a pretty nice job against some powerful offenses, holding teams to 25.3 PPG due largely to the unit's eight takeaways. But the team has been giving up too many big plays, leading to 403 total YPG allowed, 4.6 YPC allowed and 7.1 YPA. These numbers need to come down when opponents are not gifting turnovers to BYU.

Michigan's offense has done a better job running the football in the past two weeks with 479 yards, but the passing game really struggled versus UNLV with only 4.9 YPA. Senior QB Jake Rudock has completed 65% of his passes this year, but he has thrown for only 582 yards (6.4 YPA), 3 TD and 5 INT. Fortunately for Rudock, he has two reliable pass catchers in WR Amara Darboh (16 rec, 185 yds, 1 TD) and TE Jake Butt (14 rec, 132 yds, 1 TD). A big boost to the offense has been USC transfer RB Ty Isaac who exploded for 114 yards on just eight carries (14.3 YPC) last week, including a 76-yard touchdown run. Top RB De'Veon Smith ran exceptionally well against Oregon State with 126 yards on 5.5 YPC, but has only 80 yards on 30 carries in his other two contests. Defensively, the Wolverines have been downright nasty in their two home games, holding opponents to a mere 187 total YPG on 3.2 yards per play. They have been stingy in both defensive phases, holding these two teams to 75 rushing YPG on 2.2 YPC and 111 passing YPG on 4.8 YPA. Michigan also forced two turnovers last week after generating just two takeaways in the first two contests combined.