The Tigers have scored at least 44 points in each of their four victories, but the past two contests have been too close for comfort, with both resulting in ATS defeats. After edging Bowling Green by three points, they escaped past Cincinnati last week by a 53-46 score. The Bulls are eager to open AAC play after dropping a pair of tough non-conference road games at Florida State (34-14) and at Maryland (35-17) before last week's bye. These schools are meeting for the third time as conference rivals with Memphis taking the first two matchups by double-digits, 23-10 at South Florida in 2013 and 31-20 as the host team last year. Although the Bulls dominated time of possession (36:47 to 23:13), the Tigers outrushed them 238-95 to secure the victory. Memphis' stellar 16-6 ATS mark on the road versus bad teams (25% to 40% win pct.) since 1992 makes it a great wager to make it three straight wins in this series. But South Florida falls under the category of underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points going 26-5 ATS (84%) in the past 10 seasons after scoring 17 or less in two straight games against an opponent after two straight games where 60+ points were scored. The only notable injury for either school is questionable Bulls WR A.J. Legree (foot).
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The Memphis offense has been quite potent this season with 53.7 PPG on 570 total YPG. The star has been QB Paxton Lynch who has completed 74% of his passes for 1,230 yards (10.9 YPA), 8 TD and 0 INT. The 6-foot-7 junior has been sacked only five times all season and rushed for 52 yards on 11 carries in last week's win versus Cincinnati, giving him 464 total yards in that high-scoring affair. Lynch was nearly perfect versus South Florida last season when he completed 18-of-23 throws for 232 yards (10.1 YPA), 2 TD and 0 INT, while adding 44 yards and 2 TD on the ground. Lynch has been so effective this year because he has spread the ball around to his receivers. Five different players already have at least nine catches and at least 164 yards, led by senior WR Mose Frazier (19 rec) and sophomore WR Anthony Miller (268 rec yds). Last week, Miller torched the Bearcats for 156 yards on just five catches (31.2 avg), including an 82-yard TD grab, and Frazier had a game-high 82 receiving yards and a touchdown in the 2014 win versus USF. Lynch has also been great because he has a productive ground game taking the pressure off him. The Tigers are averaging a strong 228 rushing YPG on 4.6 YPC this season, led by sophomore RB Jarvis Cooper, who has run for 223 yards on 45 carries (5.0 YPC) and four touchdowns. The Memphis defense continues to struggle this season, allowing 454 total YPG and 29.2 PPG. The unit surrendered 752 total yards last week, which included 620 yards through the air. But the one positive was that the Tigers recorded three interceptions, which helped the team stay unbeaten.
South Florida will try to control this game on the ground with a rushing attack averaging a strong 221 YPG on 5.0 YPC. Sophomore RB Marlon Mack has 285 rushing yards on 5.4 YPC, and has rumbled for at least 71 yards and 4.6 YPC in all three games this season. Mack single-handedly kept his team in the meeting at Memphis last season when he rushed for 102 yards (6.4 YPC) and caught eight passes for 57 yards, while opening the second quarter with a 75-yard touchdown run. The Bulls are trying to use him as weapon through the air this year too, but Mack has a mere 22 yards on his eight receptions. The passing game has not been too much trouble for opponents, as South Florida is throwing for 155 YPG on 6.5 YPA. Most of this production came in the season-opening win versus lowly Florida A&M (281 pass yards), and in the two games combined at FSU and Maryland, the Bulls completed only 22-of-46 passes (48%) for 185 yards. Sophomore QB Quinton Flowers has a subpar 53% completion rate in his career, but he has used his legs more effectively this season with 186 yards (4.1 YPC) and a pair of touchdowns. The Bulls have only one player with at least 10 catches this year, and that is sophomore RB D'Ernest Johnson (10 rec, 193 yds) who has four touchdown grabs including one from 71 yards. The team's top wideout is sophomore WR Ryeshene Bronson who has gained a mere 41 receiving yards. Defensively, USF has limited opponents to 24.0 PPG and 345 total YPG. Both the run-stop unit (135 YPG, 3.5 YPC) and passing defense (210 YPG, 6.4 YPA) have generally been effective this year, but Florida State ran for 278 yards on the Bulls, and Maryland threw for 297 yards last week. South Florida has forced five turnovers so far this season, including three in the loss to the Terrapins.
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