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#15 Oklahoma hosts #23 WVU Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 9/30/2015  at  2:29:00 PM
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WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (3-0)
at OKLAHOMA SOONERS (3-0)

Memorial Stadium - Norman, OK
Kickoff: Saturday, Noon ET
Line: Oklahoma -7, Total: 58

The October schedule heats up on Saturday when No. 23 West Virginia visits No. 15 Oklahoma in a matchup of Big 12 unbeatens.

The Mountaineers were expected to have a great offense under head coach Dana Holgorsen, and they haven't disappointed with 43.3 PPG and 543 total YPG during their 3-0 SU start to the season (2-1 ATS). But they have also displayed a suffocating defense that has limited opponents to a nation-low 7.7 PPG on a meager 307 total YPG. The Sooners are also 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS thanks to an offense producing 41.3 PPG and 553 total YPG. But their defense looked awful in the most recent game on Sept. 19, allowing Tulsa to score 38 points with an eye-popping 603 yards of offense. Oklahoma has won all three meetings of these schools in Big 12 play, with the two games in Morgantown resulting in a combined 177 points, including a 45-33 victory last year. But in the lone Norman meeting in 2013, West Virginia managed only seven points in a 16-7 defeat that featured four turnovers for both schools. Speaking of miscues, the Mountaineers are part of the trend that road teams after 5+ forced turnovers facing an opponent with a negative turnover margin in two straight games are 75-32 ATS (70%) since 1992. And their Saturday opponent is 5-15 ATS (25%) at home when facing teams with a TO margin of at least +1 per game since 1992. But the Sooners are 21-10 ATS (68%) after a game with a turnover margin of minus-2 or worse under Bob Stoops, and their opponent has struggled versus good passing teams in the past three seasons, going 0-6 ATS on the road against teams completing at least 58% of their passes such as Oklahoma, which has a hefty 66% completion rate. Neither team has any recent injuries to be concerned about for this matchup.

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West Virginia junior QB Skyler Howard is off to a fast start this season with 916 passing yards on a 69% completion rate with 9 TD and only one interception. He's averaging 10.9 YPA and has also rushed for 88 yards despite taking six sacks. Much of his passing production has been achieved by throwing to his young receiver duo of sophomore WR Shelton Gibson (12 rec, 329 yds, 4 TD) and freshman WR Jovon Durante (12 rec, 199 yds, 2 TD). While none of these three players was involved in the shootout versus Oklahoma last year, the trio will all play a big role on Saturday considering WVU racked up 376 passing yards that day. But the Mountaineers have thrived on a balanced attack this season with 220 rushing YPG on 4.6 YPC. Junior RB Wendell Smallwood has 331 rushing yards on 6.9 YPC and 4 TD, including 147 yards versus Maryland last week. Smallwood made the most of limited action versus Oklahoma last season with 82 yards on 11 touches (9 carries, 2 receptions). West Virginia's defense has been unbelievable this season with 11 takeaways already, including six last week. Opposing rushers have a pedestrian 4.0 YPC, while opposing quarterbacks have completed a pitiful 45% of their passes for 154 YPG (5.6 YPA). But these passing numbers will surely rise against a potent Sooners air attack.

Oklahoma has thrown for 371 YPG on 9.4 YPA this season, including 487 yards on 12.8 YPA in the last game versus Tulsa. Junior QB Baker Mayfield was shaky in a double-overtime win at Tennessee two games ago (19-of-39, 187 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT), but bounced back with a near-perfect performance against Tulsa, when he completed 32-of-38 throws for 487 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT. He also added 85 yards and 2 TD on the ground, giving him four rushing touchdowns this season. Mayfield will continue to look for star WR Sterling Shepard (18 rec, 286 yds, 2 TD) as his top option, especially considering how well Shepard played versus West Virginia last year with six catches for 101 yards. But the most valuable player that day was Sooners RB Samaje Perine who carried the football 34 times for 242 yards (7.1 YPC) and 4 TD. The sophomore has also been a workhorse this year with 56 totes for 263 yards (4.7 YPC) and 2 TD, including 152 yards and a touchdown last game. Unlike the opportunistic WVU defense, Oklahoma has forced only two turnovers combined in its three games. However, the unit still has great per-play numbers of 4.6 yards per play, 5.9 yards per pass attempt and 3.4 yards per carry.


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