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Arkansas faces #8 Alabama on Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/8/2015  at  10:09:00 AM
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ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (2-3)
at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (4-1)

Bryant-Denny Stadium - Tuscaloosa, AL
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Alabama -16, Total: 48

Arkansas looks to put a scare into No. 8 Alabama when the SEC West rivals meet in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night.

The Razorbacks closed out September with three straight losses (SU and ATS), but started off October on the right foot by winning 24-20 on the road as 5.5-point underdogs at Tennessee. The Crimson Tide have also recovered nicely since their lone setback versus Ole Miss by pounding their past two opponents. After shutting out Louisiana-Monroe 34-0, they rolled to a 38-10 win at Georgia last week. Alabama has beaten Arkansas eight straight times (5-3 ATS) with the past three meetings in Tuscaloosa being absolute blowouts (35-7 in 2009, 38-14 in 2011 and 52-0 in 2013). But last season's matchup was a defensive struggle all the way with the Tide eking out a 14-13 win with the Razorbacks getting 8.5 points from the oddsmakers. Both schools have plenty of reasons for bettor optimism Saturday, as Arkansas is 12-2 ATS on the road when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992, and Alabama is 0-9 ATS at home versus poor passing defenses (250+ YPG) in this same timeframe. However, coaching trends favor the Tide with Nick Saban's 13-2 ATS mark after a 1-3 ATS stretch in the previous four games with his current team, and Razorbacks head man Bret Bielema is 3-14 ATS versus excellent defenses (285 or less YPG allowed) as a collegiate coach. Injuries are much more prevalent with Arkansas, who lost LB Josh Williams (leg) for the season and have RB Juan Day (knee) doubtful and DB Cornelius Floyd (hamstring) questionable for Saturday. Alabama should have a full roster with DL Jonathan Allen (shoulder) upgraded to probable for this matchup.

Can Arkansas keep the score close against mighty Alabama on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

Arkansas has trampled over three straight opponents with more than 225 rushing yards in three straight games, totaling 735 yards on an impressive 5.4 YPC. Although the Razorbacks are facing one of the better front fours in the nation, Alabama did allow Georgia to rush for 193 yards on 38 carries (5.1 YPC) last week. Arkansas junior RB Alex Collins has been a main part of this resurgence with more than 150 rushing yards in three straight games. For the season, he has 656 yards on 5.8 YPC and 6 TD, as he has scored in all five contests. The Tide will try to force the Razorbacks to air the football out, and they have proven capable of this with QB Brandon Allen. The senior has career highs in completion pct (66%), yards per attempt (9.7) and rating (161.4), which are all significantly better than last year when he had 56% completions, 6.7 YPA and a 129.2 rating. Neither Allen (21-of-40, 246 yds, 6.2 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT) nor Collins (6 rush, 13 yds) was very productive in the narrow home loss to Alabama last year though. Junior WR Drew Morgan has been outstanding in SEC play with 13 catches for 265 yards and a touchdown in his two conference games. The Arkansas defense is limiting teams to 22.4 PPG and 359 total YPG thanks in large part to a clock-controlling offense that has left them on the field for only 24:15 per game. The Razorbacks have stopped the run effectively (102 YPG, 3.7 YPC), but are allowing a robust 258 passing YPG on 8.4 YPA and a 67% completion rate. They also need to force more turnovers, as the team has totaled only three takeaways in the past four games combined. Fortunately for them, the Tide has been coughing up the football at an alarming rate.

Alabama has turned the ball over 10 times in the past four contests, but has still scored at least 34 points in all five of its games. The offense has been balanced with 244 passing YPG and 200 rushing YPG, while possessing the football for an average of 32:12 per game. Senior QB Jake Coker has been a bit inconsistent, but he is coming off a highly efficient performance at Georgia when he completed 11-of-16 passes (69%) for 190 yards and scored 2 TD (1 passing, 1 rushing). The ground game has been mostly good with RB Derrick Henry (570 rush yds, 6.1 YPC, 9 TD) scoring in every contest and rushing for 100 yards three times, including a season-best 148 last week. The same cannot be said for senior RB Kenyan Drake (215 rush yds, 5.0 YPC, 1 TD), who had six carries for zero yards against Georgia. The Tide defense was carved up for 43 points and 433 yards against Ole Miss, but has limited the past two opponents to a combined 10 points and 391 total yards. The run-stop unit has kept teams to only 84 YPG on 2.7 YPC, while the secondary has held opposing passers to a meager 52% completion rate and 5.0 YPA. Forcing turnovers has also been key, as Alabama has 10 takeaways over the past four games.


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