Doak Campbell Stadium - Tallahassee, FL
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Florida State -9, Total: 51

No. 12 Florida State looks for its fifth straight victory to start the season when it hosts in-state rival Miami on Saturday night.

The Hurricanes (2-1-1 ATS) are looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season last Thursday when they fell 34-23 at Cincinnati, and face a Seminoles team (2-2 ATS) returning home after escaping 19-point underdog Wake Forest with an underwhelming 24-16 win. FSU has dominated this rivalry this decade with five straight wins (3-2 ATS), but last year's contest was a tight 30-26 road victory. Miami held a commanding 35:37 time of possession that day and led 23-10 at halftime, but still lost in a game where both teams committed three turnovers. Speaking of turnovers, the Hurricanes are 11-3 ATS after two straight games of 0-to-1 giveaways, and Jumbo Fisher is only 2-9 ATS as the 'Noles head coach against teams averaging 1 or less turnovers per game. But Florida State is a strong 19-7 ATS off a road no-cover where it still won as a favorite since 1992, and Miami is an anemic 0-7 ATS on the road versus good offenses (31+ PPG) in the past three seasons. While the Hurricanes have only two significant injuries in LB Jeremaine Grace (ankle) and WR Stacy Coley (hamstring) both questionable, the Seminoles are not sure if top RB Dalvin Cook (hamstring) will play in this contest, as he'll be a game-time decision. Backup RB Mario Pender (collapsed lung) will miss at least two more games, with senior LB Terrance Smith (ankle) and DB Nate Andrews (leg) also ruled out for Saturday. Also, DB Marcus Lewis (knee) is questionable and OLs Cole Minshew and Chad Mavety are both questionable with concussions.

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Miami's offense has been mostly productive this season with 37.0 PPG and 461 total YPG on 6.5 yards per play. A big part of the team's success has been a turnover margin of +9, which is credit to the maturity of QB Brad Kaaya. The sophomore has thrown 5 TD and only 1 INT, gaining 1,094 yards through the air (7.8 YPA) on a 61% completion rate. Kaaya was outstanding in last year's narrow loss to then-No. 3 Florida State when he threw for 316 yards (9.3 YPA), 2 TD and only 1 INT. Senior WR Rashawn Scott (23 rec, 307 yds, 1 TD) is his top target, but has been a non-factor in two road games (8 catches, 56 yards) compared to what he's done in two home contests (15 rec, 251 yds). Miami has gained 175 rushing YPG on a strong 5.2 YPC, but has topped 200 yards only once this year (226 at Florida Atlantic). Expect sophomore RB Joseph Yearby to get plenty of carries on Saturday, as the sophomore is riding a streak of three straight games with more than 110 yards and has a rushing touchdown in all four contests this year. He'll have to improve upon last year's 34 yards on 10 carries versus the 'Noles to help keep his team close on Saturday. The Miami defense is allowing only 21.7 PPG and 344 total YPG for the season, but those numbers have swelled in the past two games versus Power-5 opponents (33.5 PPG, 454 total YPG). The unit has allowed a pedestrian 4.4 YPC and 6.3 YPA, as opposing quarterbacks are completing just 54% of their throws. The 'Canes have also been relentless in pursuing the football with 11 takeaways in four games, but they can't bank on that continuing against the Seminoles who have only one turnover in their four contests this year, which occurred in the season opener on Sept. 5.

Florida State's mistake-free offense has averaged 32.7 PPG and 406 total YPG this season, including a hefty 46.5 PPG and 539 total YPG in two home games. The rushing attack has been particularly potent with 192 rushing YPG on 5.5 YPC. But this might not continue as the two injured FSU ball carriers (Dalvin Cook and Mario Pender) have combined for 710 of the team's 769 rushing yards this year. If Cook, who rushed for 92 yards and 2 TD at Miami last year, is unable to go, the next best option is sophomore RB Johnathan Vickers, who carried the ball 10 times for only 33 yards and a touchdown last week. Expect senior QB Everett Golson to drop back more than usual, as he's attempted only 26.5 passes per game, completing 64% of those throws for 786 yards (7.4 YPA), 7 TD and 0 INT. But four of those touchdowns came in the season opener versus Texas State, and Golson has thrown just 1 TD in each of the past three games. He'll continue to target top WRs Jesus Wilson (215 rec yds, 2 TD) and Travis Rudolph (201 rec yds, 2 TD) most often, and Rudolph had a team-high 65 receiving yards at Miami last year. The Seminoles defense has been tremendous this year in limiting opponents to 11.5 PPG on 282 total YPG. The run-stop unit hasn't been incredibly stingy (140 YPG on 3.8 YPC), but opponents have thrown for a meager 141 YPG on an anemic 4.5 YPA. These numbers were even better before Wake Forest passed for 215 yards on 5.0 YPA last week. FSU has also done a nice job in forcing turnovers with six takeaways, including two in each of the past two contests.