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Seahawks, Bengals clash on Sunday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/9/2015  at  5:05:00 PM
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (2-2)
at CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-0)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Cincinnati -3, Total: 43.5

The Bengals try to improve to 5-0 when they host the erratic Seahawks on Sunday afternoon.

After a 26-0 dismantling of Chicago in Week 3, Seattle (1-3 ATS) nearly lost at home to winless Detroit last Monday night, prevailing 13-10 on a disputed call late in the fourth quarter when the referees ruled a touchback when they should've awarded the Lions first and goal inside the 1-yard line. After a couple of close wins by five points or less, Cincinnati (4-0 ATS) rolled past Kansas City last week in a 36-21 game that the Chiefs kicked seven field goals with no touchdowns. That improves the Bengals to 4-0 for just the fourth time in team history, with the other three 4-0 starts resulting in 11-win seasons and playoff berths. Because these teams play in different conferences, they collide only once every four years and haven't played in Cincinnati since 2003. The most recent meeting was a 34-12 Bengals road romp in 2011. While Seattle has only one ATS victory this year, under head coach Pete Carroll, the team is 16-4 ATS versus good passing teams (7+ YPA) and 18-4 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games. But there is also good reason to wager on Cincinnati staying unbeaten ATS, as the club is 9-1 ATS at home in the first half of the season since 2013 and 20-10 ATS after a win by 14+ points under head coach Marvin Lewis. The Seahawks have a slew of injury concerns, none bigger than RB Marshawn Lynch (hamstring), who did not play last week and is questionable for Sunday. Backup RB Fred Jackson (ankle) is doubtful, leaving RB Thomas Rawls as the possible primary back. The defense is also riddled with ailments, as CB Tharold Simon (toe) is doubtful and DE Demarcus Dobbs (shoulder), DT Brandon Mebane (groin), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (knee), CB Marcus Bailey (hand), S Steven Terrell (hip) and CB Tye Smith (hip) are all questionable. The Bengals may also be thin on defense with DE Wallace Gilberry (calf), CB Adam Jones (groin) and S George Iloka (ankle) all questionable.

Can the Seahawks hand the Bengals their first loss of the season? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and playoffs. Through Sunday, the experts have a collective 55% ATS record (32-26-1) in NFL Best Bets, led by StatFox Dave's strong 63% ATS mark (10-6). StatFox Scott has a 54% ATS mark (7-6) in NFL Best Bets, and Scott is also a sizzling 71% (10-4) in NFL Totals this season.

Seattle has managed just 21.7 PPG on 346 total YPG this season, and has a strong 32:12 average time of possession. The ground game has chewed up a lot of that clock with 128 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC, but the Seahawks have not yet scored a rushing touchdown in four contests. With top RB Marshawn Lynch playing only two full games, the team's top rusher is QB Russell Wilson, who has 177 yards on 5.2 YPC. Rookie RB Thomas Rawls did a fine job replacing Lynch against the Bears two weeks ago with 104 yards on 16 carries (6.5 YPC), but he did very little against the Lions last Monday with only 48 yards on 17 totes (2.8 YPC). Per usual, Wilson has been precise in his passing this year with a 72% completion rate and 979 yards (218 YPG, 7.7 YPA), 5 TD and 2 INT. TE Jimmy Graham (174 rec yds, 2 TD) and WRs Jermaine Kearse (236 rec yds) and Doug Baldwin (198 rec yds, 2 TD) are the top receivers, and all have between 20 and 24 targets this season. The Seahawks defense has limited its past two opponents to a pathetic 5.0 PPG and 201 total YPG, but they have been lit up on the road for 30.5 PPG and 357 total YPG. After forcing three turnovers in Week 1, this defense has only one takeaway in the past three games combined. But the Bengals have a tendency to give away the football, especially their quarterback.

Cincinnati has multiple turnovers in two of the past three games, but did not have a miscue in last week's win versus the Chiefs. QB Andy Dalton has thrown at least 16 interceptions in each of the past three seasons, but is having a huge year with career highs in completion percentage (67%), YPA (10.2) and passer rating (123.0). He has thrown for 1,187 yards (297 YPG) with 9 TD and only 1 INT. But he hasn't faced a defense anywhere close to the caliber of Seattle and he'll need to continue his decisiveness with his reads. WR A.J. Green remains the top target with 417 receiving yards (16.7 avg) and 3 TD, but TE Tyler Eifert has also had a big season with 222 yards (13.9 avg) and 3 TD, hauling in 16 of his 24 targets. Although the air attack has been potent, the ground game has some room for improvement with 128 YPG on 4.1 YPC, which is down from 134 YPG on 4.4 YPC last year. RB Jeremy Hill averaged a robust 5.1 YPC as a rookie last year, but a knee injury has been a big reason his 2015 numbers have decreased to 3.3 YPC. The team's top ball carrier has been RB Giovani Bernard with 297 rushing yards on a hefty 5.5 YPC. The Bengals defense has been strong against the run in allowing only 86 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC this year, but they have given up too much through the air (279 YPG, 70% completions, 6.8 YPA). In the past two weeks, the Ravens and Chiefs have thrown for 710 yards on 7.6 YPA. The Bengals have forced at least one turnover in all four games this season with seven total takeaways, and the Seahawks must do a better job of protecting the football after coughing up three turnovers last week.


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