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Steelers face Chargers in Monday night meeting
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/12/2015  at  9:24:00 AM
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2-2)
at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (2-2)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: San Diego -3, Total: 46

Two teams trying to get over .500 will wrap up Week 5 on Monday night when the Steelers visit the Chargers.

Pittsburgh (2-0-2 ATS) is well-rested for Monday, as it will take the field 11 days after falling 23-20 in overtime at home to rival Baltimore. San Diego (1-3 ATS) eked out a 30-27 victory over Cleveland last week, but suffered its third straight ATS defeat. The Steelers have dominated this series since 1992, going 10-4 (SU and ATS). But the clubs haven't met since Dec. 9, 2012 when the Chargers held a commanding 36:46 time of possession in a 34-24 victory. There are plenty of reasons for bettors to side with either team here, as the Steelers are 51-21 ATS versus good passing teams (7+ YPA) since 1992 and the Chargers are 1-8 ATS versus good passing teams (61%+ completion pct) over the past two seasons. But San Diego benefits from a couple of negative Mike Tomlin trends, as he is 8-20 ATS off 2+ consecutive Unders and 15-25 ATS on the road in games played on grass fields as Pittsburgh's head coach. The good news for one of these teams is that reliable TE Antonio Gates is ready to make his season debut for the Chargers. Injuries have been a big part of Pittsburgh's season so far with QB Ben Roethlisberger (knee) and All-Pro C Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) both out for several more weeks, and the defense has three questionable players in CB Cortez Allen (knee), LB Ryan Shazier (shoulder) and DT Daniel McCullers (knee). San Diego will be thin at receiver with WR Stevie Johnson (hamstring) doubtful, and WRs Malcom Floyd (concussion) and Jacoby Jones (ankle) both questionable. The team could also be missing some valuable linemen in G Chris Watt (groin), OT King Dunlap (concussion) and G Orlando Franklin (ankle), who are all questionable.

Which team will pick up momentum-building win on Monday night? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and playoffs. Through Sunday, the experts have a collective 55% ATS record (32-26-1) in NFL Best Bets, led by StatFox Dave's strong 63% ATS mark (10-6). StatFox Scott has a 54% ATS mark (7-6) in NFL Best Bets, and Scott is also a sizzling 71% (10-4) in NFL Totals this season.

Despite the slew of injuries and suspensions to key players, Pittsburgh's offense has still been able to score 24.0 PPG on 360 total YPG. Veteran QB Mike Vick is only 8-17 ATS as a starter in the past three seasons, and 0-4 ATS all-time versus San Diego. This season, Vick has completed 75% of his passes (24-of-32), but has only 162 yards (5.1 YPC), 1 TD and 0 INT. He has also been sacked six times and has run for just 28 yards on 14 carries. But this offense still relies heavily on its two superstars, RB Le'Veon Bell (191 rush yds, 91 rec yds, 2 TD in 2 games) and WR Antonio Brown (34 rec, 478 yds, 2 TD). On defense, Pittsburgh has given up way too many yards (360 YPG), but opponents have scored only 18.7 PPG. The run-stop unit has been decent with allowing 113 YPG on 4.0 YPC, but the team has surrendered 233 passing YPG (6.6 YPA) on a 70% completion rate. More turnovers need to be forced as well, as the Steelers have only four takeaways so far this season. The good news for them is that the Chargers have multiple giveaways in three of four contests.

San Diego's offense has only 24.0 PPG this season, but has gained a robust 411 YPG on 6.5 yards per play. Those numbers are much greater in two home games where the team has pumped out 31.5 PPG on 461 total YPG. Veteran QB Philip Rivers (2-2 record, 215 passing YPG, 8 TD, 3 INT all-time vs. Pittsburgh) is off to a flying start to the 2015 campaign. He has completed a hefty 71% of his passes for 1,248 yards (8.9 YPA), 8 TD and 4 INT over four games. He has been able to do this without TE Antonio Gates, who has 99 TD in his career catching passes from Rivers. The presence of Gates could free up more space for top WR Keenan Allen who leads the team with 387 receiving yards and 3 TD. The Chargers have been decent on the ground with at least 90 yards in every game, averaging 102 YPG on 3.9 YPC. Rookie RB Melvin Gordon is coming off his worst performance of the season (12 carries for 38 yards, 3.2 YPC) and has yet to find the end zone in 2015. But he is still averaging a solid 4.1 YPC this year with four 20-yard runs so far. Defensively San Diego is allowing 27.5 PPG on 352 YPG and 6.3 yards per play. There hasn't been one big area of strength though, as the unit has surrendered 127 rushing YPG on a hefty 4.9 YPC, plus another 225 passing YPG on 7.4 YPA and 66% completions. The Chargers have been able to force at least one turnover in every game, totaling six for the season.


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